Snowshoe Posted December 21, 2018 Report Share Posted December 21, 2018 Does pull down a massive high pressure I don't see the 2nd storm around New Years showing up on the GFS or CMC. Was that just on FV3 GFS? I am getting a little confused at all of the moving parts and different model runs that I'm not even sure what day I'm looking at. Time for Christmas Break. 1 Quote WISCONSIN RAPIDS Wisconsin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 21, 2018 Report Share Posted December 21, 2018 12Z FV3 GFS follows the others and cuts northeast over my house. Not a great day of runs for many on here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted December 21, 2018 Report Share Posted December 21, 2018 Just catching up on the 12z runs now. Nice to see the GFS and GEM come back north after the 0z debacles. Still way too much time left to get excited now. Let’s see what the King says. It’s hard to ignore the consistency of the FV3 with this storm but based on what I’ve seen so far I haven’t been impressed the last few months. No data to back up that claim. Just my 2 cents. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted December 21, 2018 Report Share Posted December 21, 2018 Back to reality lol 1 Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted December 21, 2018 Report Share Posted December 21, 2018 No snow maps yet on weather.us but the Euro looks good based on the placement of the low. Very similar to the other globals at hrs144 and 168. ICON is the farthest NW. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 21, 2018 Report Share Posted December 21, 2018 No snow maps yet on weather.us but the Euro looks good based on the placement of the low. Very similar to the other globals at hrs144 and 168. ICON is the farthest NW.It sure tugs cold air down over the Central Plains on Friday, hour 168. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 21, 2018 Report Share Posted December 21, 2018 From what I can tell from weather.us maps, Southwest through Northeast Nebraska are hit very hard on the 12Z Euro. Example, I would get about 3-4" and 45-60 miles west is 12-16". That is the line I think will cut through Nebraska next Wednesday and Thursday. What side of the line you are on will make a world of difference. Will it move southeast in the coming days or cut more northwest. High pressure location in Canada next week will tell the story imo. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 21, 2018 Report Share Posted December 21, 2018 Forecast models indicate that a storm system now developing off the coast of Japan will impact the central plains Wednesday into Thursday (Dec 26-27). However, given its current location (near Japan) and timing (5-6 days away) there are significant forecast model differences regarding the storm track that could make the difference between seeing all snow, all rain, or a mix of rain and snow across our forecast area. This appears likely to grow into a strong storm system so the precipitation could be heavy for at least some portion of the central plains. If you have travel plans on December 26th or 27th please keep up to date with the latest forecast updates as we get closer and can better iron out the storm track and precipitation type. Interesting graphic from NWS Hastings. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted December 21, 2018 Report Share Posted December 21, 2018 From what I can tell from weather.us maps, Southwest through Northeast Nebraska are hit very hard on the 12Z Euro. Example, I would get about 3-4" and 45-60 miles west is 12-16". That is the line I think will cut through Nebraska next Wednesday and Thursday. What side of the line you are on will make a world of difference. Will it move southeast in the coming days or cut more northwest. High pressure location in Canada next week will tell the story imo.Yowza. Fun to look at. Probably won’t verify like this though. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FarmerRick Posted December 21, 2018 Report Share Posted December 21, 2018 From Sioux Falls: 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 21, 2018 Report Share Posted December 21, 2018 For those that care or are interested, 12Z NAVGEM has the low at 144 hours over Concordia KS. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted December 21, 2018 Report Share Posted December 21, 2018 Pretty remarkable consistency among the global operational runs again today after last nights hiccup. GEFS ensembles aren’t as wide spread either although there are some significant differences still, and the mean is south of the op. 12z EPS looks a tad bit south of the op Euro but nothing major. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder98 Posted December 21, 2018 Report Share Posted December 21, 2018 Unbelievable https://twitter.com/ericfisher/status/1076207510342848513 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 21, 2018 Report Share Posted December 21, 2018 Pretty remarkable consistency among the global operational runs again today after last nights hiccup. GEFS ensembles aren’t as wide spread either although there are some significant differences still, and the mean is south of the op. 12z EPS looks a tad bit south of the op Euro but nothing major.Never ever want to be in the bullseye 6 days out.. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted December 21, 2018 Report Share Posted December 21, 2018 Another thing, especially with the high to the northeast, is the potential for front end snow, even around here. Many models show this in their outputs. Whatever falls would only serve to get watered down and melted by the ensuing deluge of rain though. 1 Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted December 21, 2018 Report Share Posted December 21, 2018 Completely unrelated to the storm at hand; the upcoming SSW looks pretty fierce over Siberia, not that I know too much about them. Even so, this should have major implications for January and February. As many have said, cold will probably go into Eurasia first, but the last SSW did the same thing, and we still had a very cold march/april period on our side of the pole. The intensity of the SSW event on the ECMWF is absolutely amazing. Current -15C anoms above Siberia become +70C by Tuesday. That's a rise of 150F in 4 days!! Some uncertainty as to exactly how this affects our pattern, but chances of cold/snow in the East likely improve for Jan 3 Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted December 21, 2018 Report Share Posted December 21, 2018 Never ever want to be in the bullseye 6 days out..Yes, that’s correct. Do I have a choice? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted December 21, 2018 Report Share Posted December 21, 2018 Well at this point might as well hope for thunderstorms here right? New icon much deeper into mexico fyi 1 Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted December 21, 2018 Report Share Posted December 21, 2018 Well at this point might as well hope for thunderstorms here right? New icon much deeper into mexico fyiFv3 doing the same. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 21, 2018 Report Share Posted December 21, 2018 FV3 at 120 hours low in Southwest Oklahoma Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted December 21, 2018 Report Share Posted December 21, 2018 Happy Winter Solstice day! Boy, the 00z EPS and 00z GEFS have decidedly trended away from each other...clearly, the GEFS are much farther S and E and quite weaker overall. As much as I hate to say it, I'd be rooting for the EPS as we most certainly need to build up a deep snow pack up north.I thought I woke up in 2015 or 2016.... lol. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted December 21, 2018 Report Share Posted December 21, 2018 Wow South Dakota gets blasted on the gfs 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted December 21, 2018 Report Share Posted December 21, 2018 Yeah jackpot is definitely South Dakota through Minnesota and northern Wisconsin Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted December 22, 2018 Report Share Posted December 22, 2018 . Through 384 hrs 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 22, 2018 Report Share Posted December 22, 2018 Heatwave next week in my area. Approaching near 50 by Wednesday w rain. Man, cannot wait to see how January ends up ...I am hearing colder and snowier?!....Ummm, Okkkk. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 22, 2018 Report Share Posted December 22, 2018 Currently, balmy and cloudy w upper 30s. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted December 22, 2018 Author Report Share Posted December 22, 2018 Through 384 hrsI think I'm more disgruntled by that shaft in North Dakota than the zero flakes here. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 22, 2018 Report Share Posted December 22, 2018 0z NAM is now picking up the low at 84 hours in northeast Nevada. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 22, 2018 Report Share Posted December 22, 2018 Icon at 108 really shows nothing. Much different from past runs Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 22, 2018 Report Share Posted December 22, 2018 Hr 141 it has a low in OK starting to develop Wayyy different from 12z 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted December 22, 2018 Report Share Posted December 22, 2018 Hr 141 it has a low in OK starting to develop Wayyy different from 12zand then proceeds to lift almost straight north. Low development itself was super wonky and looked convectively induced. 1 Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 22, 2018 Report Share Posted December 22, 2018 0z Icon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 22, 2018 Report Share Posted December 22, 2018 How in the world can you make accurate forecasts when models are so completely different? Unless the Icon is on to something. Let’s look at GFS and CMC. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 22, 2018 Report Share Posted December 22, 2018 As a comparison, Icon at hour 108 has the low over Tucson Arizona. GFS at hour 108 over southeast Colorado. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 22, 2018 Report Share Posted December 22, 2018 Gfs is gonna cut this through central NE... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 22, 2018 Report Share Posted December 22, 2018 Gem at 120 has the low down in northern Mexico... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 22, 2018 Report Share Posted December 22, 2018 Gem at 120 has the low down in northern Mexico...If nothing else, it is fascinating to see the spread on the models. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormy Posted December 22, 2018 Report Share Posted December 22, 2018 Well at this point might as well hope for thunderstorms here right? New icon much deeper into mexico fyi It should mostly be rain in my location so I’m hoping for thunderstorms. That would be cool in the wintertime since I’m more of a thunderstorm fan anyway. I could get somewhat dry slotted though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 22, 2018 Report Share Posted December 22, 2018 Gem crushes eastern NE up into WI https://tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem®ion=us&pkg=asnow&runtime=2018122200&fh=162 Take the low from OK up into IL Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted December 22, 2018 Author Report Share Posted December 22, 2018 Lol @ the GEM. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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