Tom Posted November 30, 2018 Report Share Posted November 30, 2018 He has recently said that there is a transition phase in the pattern that most likely begins in late August and Sept. The pattern doesn't go old/new over night, in Sept there is the old pattern still cycling and some of the new features developing for the new patteren. By the first week of Oct the new pattern is cycling with no influence from the old pattern. I hope this make since.I totally understand and I’ve commented about these changes in the LRC in the Sept thread. However, Gary has never used a pattern in Sept to develope the cycle length. It usually snaps into the new cycle right around the 6th or so every year. Coincidentally, when the sun sets across the North Pole. So, with all that in mind, the Oct 7th-10th period resembles when I think the 1st day’s of the cycle began. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted November 30, 2018 Report Share Posted November 30, 2018 Not to be a downer but here is the latest CPC's long range guess for December 2018 http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/30day/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted November 30, 2018 Author Report Share Posted November 30, 2018 Not to be a downer but here is the latest CPC's long range guess for December 2018 http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/30day/I agree with that based on Euro weeklies. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted November 30, 2018 Report Share Posted November 30, 2018 18z GFS with a weak but widespread snow maker for next weekend. Probably won't materialize, but something to keep an eye on the next few days. http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2018113012/216/snku_024h.us_mw.png 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted December 1, 2018 Report Share Posted December 1, 2018 18z GFS with a weak but widespread snow maker for next weekend. Probably won't materialize, but something to keep an eye on the next few days. What is this garbage. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 1, 2018 Report Share Posted December 1, 2018 My forecast stays dry and quite cold next week after the weekend rainstorm. Dry as can be. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 1, 2018 Report Share Posted December 1, 2018 December can provide some good snows, but for my area, it looks bleak for now. Hopefully, it changes and I am sure it will. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted December 1, 2018 Report Share Posted December 1, 2018 December can provide some good snows, but for my area, it looks bleak for now. Hopefully, it changes and I am sure it will.Don't know MI climate that well, but normally our fun kicks off around Christmas and runs through march. Based on this pattern who knows but got a feeling for a fun winter. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 1, 2018 Report Share Posted December 1, 2018 Don't know MI climate that well, but normally our fun kicks off around Christmas and runs through march. Based on this pattern who knows but got a feeling for a fun winter. As little action as some winters bring, I feel like I just had winter. As for climo here, we also have a core period from mid-Dec to mid-March for SWMI. The past 2 Dec's have been good tho and started right after the first week. We may have just seen Nov and Dec swap this year the way outlooks are going. Only time will tell ofc 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 1, 2018 Report Share Posted December 1, 2018 I agree with that based on Euro weeklies. Doen't look that bad out your way. You can prolly tolerate slight AN temps in Dec vs here. Your issue seems to be more about decent qpf and they have Neb AN during the period. Could work out for ya 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 1, 2018 Report Share Posted December 1, 2018 Don't know MI climate that well, but normally our fun kicks off around Christmas and runs through march. Based on this pattern who knows but got a feeling for a fun winter.Me too! 2013-14 would be nice again 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 1, 2018 Report Share Posted December 1, 2018 Rain coming straight up from the south towards MI and lots of it. Rain and temps in the 30s sure make it raw...UGH! Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted December 1, 2018 Report Share Posted December 1, 2018 Welcome to meteorological winter. Here is the unofficial summary for the month of November 2018. It was a cold and snowy month all across western and central Michigan. At Grand Rapids the mean of 34.6° was the 10th coldest November on record. The maximum for the month was a new record coldest at 52° the low for the month was 20° there was 14.4” of snow fall that is good for 17th place. At Muskegon the mean for the month was 35.5° that is good for the 7th coldest on record. The highest reading was just 51° and that is good for a new record coldest maximum. Muskegon reported 12.5” of snow fall. At Kalamazoo the mean of 34.6° is good for the 5th coldest on record there. The warmest it got in Kzoo was just 54° and that is good for the 2nd coldest on record there. And at Lansing the mean was 33.6° that is good for the 9th coldest on record there. The warmest reading all month was 53° and that is good for the 2nd coldest maximum in recorded history. They had 11.9” of snow fall that is good for 13th place. Should be noted that records have been kept at Lansing since 1863. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 1, 2018 Report Share Posted December 1, 2018 Currently cloudy and temp of 34F. Rain on the way. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted December 1, 2018 Report Share Posted December 1, 2018 Doen't look that bad out your way. You can prolly tolerate slight AN temps in Dec vs here. Your issue seems to be more about decent qpf and they have Neb AN during the period. Could work out for ya Mild winters are known to produce big snowfalls here. Feb 4 2012 dropped a foot of snow in an otherwise mild and uneventful winter. 1 Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FV-Mike Posted December 1, 2018 Report Share Posted December 1, 2018 LOT update on the clipper later this week A couple of cold days are on tap for Tuesday and Wednesday. Modelsin decent agreement regarding the occurrence of a clipper typesystem on Thursday, with still some timing differnces as theGFS/EC hit the morning/early afternoon timeframe, while the CMC isa bit earlier. Regardless, there is a good signal for a period oflight accumulating snow during this time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
badgerwx Posted December 1, 2018 Report Share Posted December 1, 2018 Sadly it looks like we will have a green Christmas in SW Wisconsin Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 1, 2018 Report Share Posted December 1, 2018 Lets see how the clipper performs later next week. As of now, it looks weak. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 1, 2018 Report Share Posted December 1, 2018 Currently cloudy w a temp of 35F. A few showers here and there. Break out the shorts tomorrow as temps approach 50F b4 they start falling later in the day. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 2, 2018 Report Share Posted December 2, 2018 The 0z GFS now brings another system up into the Plains next weekend. It has been showing it staying way south on previous runs. Let’s see it this is something to track or a nothingburger. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 2, 2018 Report Share Posted December 2, 2018 The 0z GFS now brings another system up into the Plains next weekend. It has been showing it staying way south on previous runs. Let’s see it this is something to track or a nothingburger.This is a system that I have been looking forward to seeing. I think it has a good chance to produce a major snow in my area, it will most likely stay south of you. However the following week we should have 2 large storms that are 2 of the signature systems in this years LRC. The second of the 2 systems should be a cut-off low. With most of the forum receiving some love. Look out around the 14th-16th! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted December 2, 2018 Report Share Posted December 2, 2018 Sadly it looks like we will have a green Christmas in SW Wisconsin Its Dec. 1st! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted December 2, 2018 Report Share Posted December 2, 2018 It’s been 53 days since I received 2.7” of precipitation that included 3” of snow from oct 7th to oct 10th. I’m going out on a limb and saying that is our cycle; I’m thinking Gary will say the cycle is between 50-55 days! I havent heard if he actually said what it is but I’m guessing that. After this storm my precip total should be darn close to that; just more snow this time around. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 2, 2018 Report Share Posted December 2, 2018 It’s been 53 days since I received 2.7” of precipitation that included 3” of snow from oct 7th to oct 10th. I’m going out on a limb and saying that is our cycle; I’m thinking Gary will say the cycle is between 50-55 days! I havent heard if he actually said what it is but I’m guessing that. After this storm my precip total should be darn close to that; just more snow this time around. He has strongly indicated that he believes it is 54 days, but is saying it is still in question. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 2, 2018 Report Share Posted December 2, 2018 This is a system that I have been looking forward to seeing. I think it has a good chance to produce a major snow in my area, it will most likely stay south of you. However the following week we should have 2 large storms that are 2 of the signature systems in this years LRC. The second of the 2 systems should be a cut-off low. With most of the forum receiving some love. Look out around the 14th-16th! That would be great. Thanks for your insight. Good stuff 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted December 2, 2018 Report Share Posted December 2, 2018 Last nights tornado report included an EF-2 rated tornado with a 25+ mile minimum path. Strongest tornado in Eastern Oklahoma in the last 10 years in pure darkness with trees, hills, barns etc... 0 Fatalities reported0 Injuries reported God is good. All I can say. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 2, 2018 Report Share Posted December 2, 2018 Sunshine and warmth currently w temps at 55F. WOW....WOOHOOOOO!!!!! Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 2, 2018 Report Share Posted December 2, 2018 Could see some severe weather later this afternoon. Back to reality tomorrow w snowshowers and little to no accumulations. Late weak clipper looks beh! We will see...hopefully, it provides the goods. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted December 2, 2018 Report Share Posted December 2, 2018 Oklahoma gets rocked on the gfs Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 2, 2018 Report Share Posted December 2, 2018 Nothing exciting around here for the next week other than maybe a little clipper on Thursday if that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted December 2, 2018 Author Report Share Posted December 2, 2018 Yeah things are looking fairly boring for a bit here. That's why I was hoping for more snow here from this storm, cuz I'd at least like a surviving snowpack if we're not gonna have any snow falling. What sucks is there's not even looking to be any big storms up North either, so they can't build the snowpack up there which would set the stage for future cold here. I'd be pissed if I lived up there and I'm not really happy about it down here. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted December 2, 2018 Author Report Share Posted December 2, 2018 Our one chance for snow looks to be next weekend. Models are a full state South of here right now with that wave, but hey it's 7 days out . After that, looks like our next storm chance comes the weekend after that when the ingredients may come together for another CO low. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted December 2, 2018 Report Share Posted December 2, 2018 This southern storm looks interesting. Pretty far south for December for that amount of snow. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 2, 2018 Report Share Posted December 2, 2018 After being in a deep freeze (by Nov stds) the better part of 3 weeks, we were due for a relaxation, but wow at hitting 57F today! GRR busted low by 10F as my grid-cast high had 47F. That's a major temps bust any time of year. Now we again go sub-freezing several days this week. Hopefully getting our soil temps back down in time before the next snow potential. I prefer that the ground gets a chance to freeze versus the transition snow blanket that was melting from below. 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted December 2, 2018 Author Report Share Posted December 2, 2018 Gotta love insightful OAX AFDs like this. Boy am I glad to live in their CWA. I'm not sure what I'd do without OAX's wonderful discussions. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Sunday)Issued at 330 PM CST Sun Dec 2 2018Cold and dry conditions expected through the extended. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 2, 2018 Report Share Posted December 2, 2018 Man, what a warm day today. Well into the 50s. Also, the extended looks boring, cold and dry. All the snow chances that were forecasted in my extended has vanished away to partly cloudy. If it holds true, half of December goes dry and cold. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 2, 2018 Report Share Posted December 2, 2018 Even the clipper later this week dries out. Almost nothing to speak of in terms of amounts. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted December 2, 2018 Report Share Posted December 2, 2018 This was a nice treat to see from earlier today. Will it happen? Possibly. Nice storm. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 3, 2018 Report Share Posted December 3, 2018 This was a nice treat to see from earlier today. gfs_asnow_us_29.png Will it happen? Possibly. Nice storm.The 12z EPS snow mean has the 2”+ line right across the northern 2/3rd’s of your state into the south side of KC. I think chances are you’ll have your first snowstorm of the season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 3, 2018 Report Share Posted December 3, 2018 This was a nice treat to see from earlier today. gfs_asnow_us_29.png Will it happen? Possibly. Nice storm.That is going straight for the EC....SMI will miss out on that....things can still change though I can see yr area getting a couple to several inches Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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