December 2018 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[Deweydog]

http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/1914-unpopular-opinions-on-weather/

http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/20-mountain-west-discussion/?view=getnewpost

[TT-SEA]

Would rather read some off topic facts than have to scroll past Tims continued efforts to prove how much rain he gets, even after being warned.

 

Kind of reminds me of my 2 year old daughter... I can tell her not to do something, but she will continue to push the boundaries if I don't actually enforce a punishment.

Its weather related and the stuff with Jared was valid debate and discussion. But moving it to it's own thread was a good idea because it detracts from the rest of the discussion here.

[Front Ranger]

http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/20-mountain-west-discussion/?view=getnewpost

 

http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/74-chico-california-weather-history/

[Phil]

Any guesses as to the main event with the SSW? Next week, week after? I like hearing your analyses and guesses on this stuff.

Between January 1-10 is when I’d watch for the initial effects of the SSW out there (big block over AK and the western Arctic).

 

The problem is the tropical forcing turns to crap after January 10th, so ideally you’d want the SSW to complete ASAP (assuming full dissonance from the tropics out of convenience).

 

It would look similar to Jan 2013 in large scale structure, but the exact placement of the block will determine whether this ends up being a legitimate Arctic blast, or a brush to the east and/or fake cold type setup. Either way, something is going to happen.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Between January 1-10 is when I’d watch for the initial effects of the SSW out there (big block over AK and the western Arctic).

 

The problem is the tropical forcing turns to crap after January 10th, so ideally you’d want the SSW to complete ASAP (assuming full dissonance from the tropics out of convenience).

 

It would look similar to Jan 2013 in large scale structure, but the exact placement of the block will determine whether this ends up being a legitimate Arctic blast, or a brush to the east and/or fake cold type setup. Either way, something is going to happen.

 

Something not nothing is all that matters.

[Jesse]

54 with partly sunny skies and an east wind close to the shortest day of the year. Pretty Niño-ish.

[TT-SEA]

54 with partly sunny skies and an east wind close to the shortest day of the year. Pretty Niño-ish.

 

Lucky!

 

46 with heavy mist here most of the day... pretty December-ish.  

[Bryant]

Lucky!

 

46 with heavy mist here most of the day... pretty December-ish.

Only you would call it "heavy mist"

[Front Ranger]

DRUNKLE.

[TT-SEA]

Only you would call it "heavy mist"

It is. And its typical of warm fronts here. Very fine but drenching wet.

[TT-SEA]

I have seen many people on here describe it that way.

[kokaneekidz]

What would you say the odds are we see 60-70 mile per hour winds in the Metro area tomorrow??? I say 50%. What say you//

[Timmy]

What would you say the odds are we see 60-70 mile per hour winds in the Metro area tomorrow??? I say 50%. What say you//

I guess it depends on which metro you are referring to.

[kokaneekidz]

I guess it depends on which metro you are referring to.

Oops. I mean Everett to Tacoma Metro area. Please excuse the misleading post

[Blizzard777]

peak gusts - 57mph gusts over Renton?

 

Looking at the progression of the frames, looks like a swath of winds move up from the south sound from about noon in Olympia, 4pm for Seattle, and 6pm for Everett.

Finally some fun to track! Time to start tapping the barometer to make the needle fall. This is followed by the words “theirs something Big out there” as my dad used to say.

[kokaneekidz]

peak gusts - 57mph gusts over Renton?

 

Looking at the progression of the frames, looks like a swath of winds move up from the south sound from about noon in Olympia, 4pm for Seattle, and 6pm for Everett.

I have seen post frontal westerlies in storms like this in the past that produced 60-70 mph gusts in Mukilteo about 15 years ago and it blew over a willow tree that seemed indestructible.

[kokaneekidz]

Some people get touchy when their locale misses out. I'm sure we would get cranky people between Abbotsford and Olympia if this was a Willamette Special.

Oaaaah Yeah. We're just ooooot nnn abooot eh? Bunch a hoser 'mericans

[Timmy]

Some people get touchy when their locale misses out. I'm sure we would get cranky people between Abbotsford and Olympia if this was a Willamette Special.

I wasn’t being touchy, he isn’t a frequent poster here, and I don’t know where he lives. 99% of the time I’m on my mobile for this forum and it doesn’t give out locales easily.

[Timmy]

My bad.

All good. There is at least one poster in here that has been asking that question legitimately about pdx for days now so nothing wouldn’t surprise me now.

[Requiem]

Some people get touchy when their locale misses out. I'm sure we would get cranky people between Abbotsford and Olympia if this was a Willamette Special.

Accurate. I’m pretty cranky right now, we are so overdue for a decent blow.

[Jesse]

18z bumped up precip totals just a little. Almost 4” down here through hour 180. More in line with the Euro.

[Requiem]

Looking at the models I’m not buying a Seattle windstorm yet. At face value only gusts of 35-40 with isolated spots higher. EURO puts much higher winds south of the sound, with gusts into the 40s at Salem. This wasn’t there in previous runs.

[stuffradio]

This could be the second month in a row for me with 16" of rain.

[Bryant]

This could be the second month in a row for me with 16" of rain.

Enjoy!

[High Desert Mat!]

Phil, so when is this supposed SSW suppose to start and finish?

[Blizzard777]

This could be the second month in a row for me with 16" of rain.

Just to clarify what 16 inches looks like with this euro hair model

 

That’s a lot of hair!!

[Phil]

Phil, so when is this supposed SSW suppose to start and finish?

It starts D8-9, as currently modeled. Would probably complete the wave-1 cycle around New Years. Looks like a mostly wave-1 dominated breakdown for now, but it could easily make the wave-2 transition towards the end, which (dynamically speaking) favors western cold more than wave-1 for a slew of complex reasons that aren’t worth getting into right now.

 

The next question is how does it affect the tropical forcing during January? The tropical tropopause will almost certainly cool and elevate, which will ignite deep convection with powerful diabatic feedback potential. The models are probably not resolving this properly right now (especially the GFS/GEFS, which has a history of miserable failure with these processes).

[Blizzard777]

Alerts so far

[Bryant]

Phil, so when is this supposed SSW suppose to start and finish?

8 days, 35 minutes, and 4 seconds from now

[van city]

18z Parallel GFS?

[Kayla]

This has to be the most advertised and anticipated Sudden Stratosphere Warming event in history.

 

#SSW

[Olyman]

I'm not good at reading models, so maybe I'm misreading something, but the EPS control run on Weatherbell looks like Barney the Dinosaur invaded the PNW.  No one has mentioned this.

[High Desert Mat!]

It starts D8-9, as currently modeled. Would probably complete the wave-1 cycle around New Years. Looks like a mostly wave-1 dominated breakdown for now, but it could easily make the wave-2 transition towards the end, which (dynamically speaking) favors western cold more than wave-1 for a slew of complex reasons that aren’t worth getting into right now.

 

The next question is how does it affect the tropical forcing during January? The tropical tropopause will almost certainly cool and elevate, which will ignite deep convection with powerful diabatic feedback potential. The models are probably not resolving this properly right now (especially the GFS/GEFS, which has a history of miserable failure with these processes).

Thanks for the detailed info, Bryant not so much.

[seattleweatherguy]

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE...CORRECTED

National Weather Service Seattle WA

308 PM PST Thu Dec 13 2018

 

WAZ504-509-511-556-558-559-141300-

/O.COR.KSEW.HW.A.0004.181214T1800Z-181215T0300Z/

Southwest Interior-Tacoma Area-Hood Canal Area-

Bellevue and Vicinity-Seattle and Vicinity-Bremerton and Vicinity-

308 PM PST Thu Dec 13 2018

 

...HIGH WIND WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH

FRIDAY EVENING...

 

* WIND...South wind 30 to 40 mph with gusts 50 to 60 mph are

possible.

 

* SOME AFFECTED LOCATIONS...Seattle, Bellevue, Tacoma and

Bremerton.

 

* TIMING...10 AM Friday morning through 7 PM Friday evening.

 

* IMPACTS...Snapped tree branches and downed trees along with

local power outages.

 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 

A High Wind Watch means there is the potential for a hazardous

high wind event. Sustained winds of at least 40 mph, or gusts of

58 mph or stronger may occur. Continue to monitor the latest

forecasts.

 

&&

 

$$

 

www.weather.gov/seattle

[Phil]

This has to be the most advertised and anticipated Sudden Stratosphere Warming event in history.

 

#SSW

After what happened last year, everyone is becoming stratosphere junkie now.

 

I’m especially looking forward to the insane model swings that will envelop the wx-weeniesphere over the coming weeks. Gonna be madness.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

I'm not good at reading models, so maybe I'm misreading something, but the EPS control run on Weatherbell looks like Barney the Dinosaur invaded the PNW.  No one has mentioned this.

 

Map pls?

[Frontal Snowsquall]

18z Parallel GFS?

It's close to becoming great. Very frigid Arctic air makes its way into BC.

 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Just to clarify what 16 inches looks like with this euro hair model

 

That’s a lot of hair!!

Long hair on women drive me crazy!

[Bryant]

#384forlife

[Phil]

Edit: never mind, it’s listed in the footer.