December 2018 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[Gradient Keeper]

Enjoy time with your family Rob! Will be a special time for your Nephew 

Thanks.  I better head off waking up 6 AM. Have a good night.

 

Colder runs ahead!

 

12z GFS in 4 hours 47 minutes

12z GEM in 5 hours 10 minutes

12z ECMWF in 7 hours 5 minutes

[Farmboy]

6z GFS showing very good improvements and while not there just yet is definitely making a big move towards the GEM/ECMWF. About time.

 

Day 5

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2018122306/120/500h_anom.na.png

 

Day 6

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2018122306/144/500h_anom.na.png

Day 7

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2018122306/168/500h_anom.na.png

 

Day 8http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2018122306/192/500h_anom.na.png

Sucks for me, and the Italian ice guy that came down here from Ohio thinking he could make a killing. Hopefully January treats us better...

[luvssnow_spokane]

[luvssnow_spokane]

[FroYoBro]

Got up to 47 early this morning. #springishere

[luvssnow_spokane]

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Sking is going to be great after this dump lastnight. The pass looks like they did very good.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

So far it looks like everything is a bit west on the 12z compared to the 00z.

[TT-SEA]

Sking is going to be great after this dump lastnight. The pass looks like they did very good.

 

 

I am trying to get my boys out of bed right now!    That band coming in looks nasty and if they want to get up there then they better go now or the pass might close.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Off topic but me and my girlfriend are now engaged to be married!! one of my biggest fears after loosing my wife was not ever finding another love like me and her had but this girl Trisha came into my life and everything worked out great. We acually dated way back in 1990. She has 2 girls age 9 and 13 and i really enjoy having young ones around the home again. Just wanted to share this with all you.

[TT-SEA]

Sucks for me, and the Italian ice guy that came down here from Ohio thinking he could make a killing. Hopefully January treats us better...

 

Italian ice guy?   Are you working a carnival?

 

The ice guy is not very smart if they he thought he could make a killing in the desert down there in December and January.   That would be more likely starting in March or April.  

 

I see the forecast for the upcoming week there has highs in the low to mid 50s and lows in the 30s... not exactly the weather that makes me want Italian ice.   Actually not to different than the highs and lows here lately.  

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Off topic but me and my girlfriend are now engaged to be married!! one of my biggest fears after loosing my wife was not ever finding another love like me and her had but this girl Trisha came into my life and everything worked out great. We acually dated way back in 1990. She has 2 girls age 9 and 13 and i really enjoy having young ones around the home again. Just wanted to share this with all you.

Congrats, that really makes my day!  Especially around Christmas!  Thank you for sharing.  Sounds a bit like the plot of a Hallmark Movie.  

[TT-SEA]

Off topic but me and my girlfriend are now engaged to be married!! one of my biggest fears after loosing my wife was not ever finding another love like me and her had but this girl Trisha came into my life and everything worked out great. We acually dated way back in 1990. She has 2 girls age 9 and 13 and i really enjoy having young ones around the home again. Just wanted to share this with all you.

 

That is so awesome!   Just gave me goosebumps reading this.    

[Deweydog]

Congrats, that really makes my day! Especially around Christmas! Thank you for sharing. Sounds a bit like the plot of a Hallmark Movie.

Oh my Candice... Every Christmas takes me back to the days of having a crush on DJ Tanner.

[stuffradio]

Off topic but me and my girlfriend are now engaged to be married!! one of my biggest fears after loosing my wife was not ever finding another love like me and her had but this girl Trisha came into my life and everything worked out great. We acually dated way back in 1990. She has 2 girls age 9 and 13 and i really enjoy having young ones around the home again. Just wanted to share this with all you.

 

Congrats!

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Thanks guys. She was a full blown city girl that never really experienced the outdoors much and now she wears cowgirl boots and flannel shirts and begs to go to the cabin lol. I'm really happy and i love her a ton.

[Esquimalt]

12Z GEM not quite as good as the 00Z. Everything shifted a little east.

[ShawniganLake]

12Z GEM not quite as good as the 00Z. Everything shifted a little east.

Overall the gfs and gem both look crappy this morning.

 

Did you go up to Mount Washington for Christmas, or am I getting you confused with someone else?

[ShawniganLake]

Not even much of a dry break on the GFS. Jet is pushing back in by day 9.

[TT-SEA]

Not even much of a dry break on the GFS. Jet is pushing back in by day 9.

 

 

00Z EPS did not really advance things forward in the 10-15 day period...

 

 

[Deweydog]

Always bums me out when you get to the scene in White Christmas when they get to Vermont and there’s NO SNOW. More bumming out than the lack of snow is the fact the director cut out the extensive but lively and playful debate about the NAO that followed.

[Phil]

It's worth noting that "Nino climo" in weaker Nino years is a bit different than stronger events.

 

1951-52, 1953-54, 1958-59, 1968-69, 1979-80, 1994-95, and 2006-07 all had lowland snow and/or Arctic events after Jan 15.

Yeah, there really is no “niño climo” when intraseasonal forcings are overpowering the (weak) background state in years like this. Still a real chance this event fails to meet niño criteria, and if it does, it’ll be very borderline.

 

However, the aforementioned intraseasonal forcings turn to absolute crap (for the west) after January 10th, probably until the second week of February. So it’s unfortunate timing, and it has little to do with ENSO directly, but I’m sure people will call it niño climo anyway.

[Esquimalt]

Yeah, there really is no “niño climo” when intraseasonal forcings are overpowering the (weak) background state in years like this. Still a real chance this event fails to meet niño criteria, and if it does, it’ll be very borderline.

 

However, the aforementioned intraseasonal forcings turn to absolute crap (for the west) after January 10th, probably until the second week of February. So it’s unfortunate timing, and it has little to do with ENSO directly, but I’m sure people will call it niño climo anyway.

But isn’t the MJO going to be favourable for us during the January 10th to febuary 10th period? Does that counter the tropical forcing?

[Phil]

Really just 1953-54. And I think it's safe to say that analogs from the 1950s are pretty irrelevant in this day and age.

I agree with this. The warm pool/ITCZ structure has changed massively since then. In fact, the Pacific ITCZ hasn’t migrated south of the equator since 1998. Been very NH-biased for the last several decades.

 

Back in the early/mid 20th century, it would migrate south on a relatively frequent basis. So it really makes no sense to use 1950s/60s analogs unless they’re +QBO/solar maximum years (hence featured a boatload of off-equator convection).

[Esquimalt]

Overall the gfs and gem both look crappy this morning.

 

Did you go up to Mount Washington for Christmas, or am I getting you confused with someone else?

Yeah I got up here on the 19th and I’m leaving today. I measured 58 cm of new snow this morning from yesterday morning! Blizzard conditions yesterday. Last year when we went it was mostly sunny for the entire time so I’m glad we got this active weather!

[Phil]

Well, that's a subjective statement. But this is not just "colder than it's been", it's pretty darn cold for some areas. My comments are not just about the PNW. My point was that cold air is returning to our region of the globe.

 

gfs_T850a_us_29.png

 

Also, I'm talking about the return of persistent and perhaps strong high latitude blocking that is likely with the ongoing weakening of the PV, and imminent SSW. This is also heavily favored for mid winter with low solar.

 

Don't take my word for it...this is from a stratospheric forum I've been lurking on lately.

 

The SPV split is now also occurring at 50mb on the GFS, GEFS and and EPS, beginning in about 10 days. Which is more evidence that this SSW event will downwell and result in more high-latitude blocking in the EPO/AO/NAO regions around the Jan 5-10th period.

Yeah, midwinter SSW events with a long wave-1 lead are a test of patience because their effects can take a long time to manifest in the troposphere. And with all the clown range stratosphere modeling nowadays, it already feels like this SSW has been around forever (when in reality it has just begun, lol).

[ShawniganLake]

Yeah I got up here on the 19th and I’m leaving today. I measured 58 cm of new snow this morning from yesterday morning! Blizzard conditions yesterday. Last year when we went it was mostly sunny for the entire time so I’m glad we got this active weather!

Nice. That looked like a wicked storm yesterday

[Phil]

Looks like pretty standard mid-winter stuff, and the ensembles continue to roast the western half of Canada as we head into January.

 

Nothing suggests that -PNA blocking is in the cards (again... Nino climo). Quite the opposite in fact. Until that changes, any stratospheric action is for naught.

Keep in mind the SSW will affect the tropical forcing and can produce a -PNA/-EPO under the right conditions.

 

Last February is a decent example. That was an unusually short wait-time by stratosphere standards. Usually it takes longer for a coherent NAM/NPAC response. Also, that initial -PNA was forced by the EAMT flip/Scandi retrograde alone, and not the tropics.

[Phil]

All depends on what the SSW event does to the atmosphere. Certainly too early to write off winter but odds of anything good in terms of arctic cold and snow in the PNW are diminishing.

Outside the ugly Jan 10th to Feb 5th window, I think the potential for a western blast is as high as any other year. The question is whether that potential is realized.

[Jesse]

Not even much of a dry break on the GFS. Jet is pushing back in by day 9.

At least a little bit of good news.

[Phil]

Panic mode is setting in for some it appears

Always happens at this time of year.

[ShawniganLake]

Outside the ugly Jan 10th to Feb 5th window, I think the potential for a western blast is as high as any other year. The question is whether that potential is realized.

A blast between now and the 10th is looking unlikely. So we are looking ahead to mid February almost at this point.

[Phil]

A few thoughts I have about the current situation and upcoming possible cold snap...

 

1. The details of the cutoff low that is progged to develop somewhere near Hawaii a bit less than a week out is obviously going to be key in determining just how cold of a pattern we may see. At face value the 18z looks solidly chilly on the operational run. Even the period when the ridge is right over us would undoubtedly be cold coming right on the heals of a true cold snap. That period still has potential to develop into something really good.

 

2. There are some indications we could see another window for cold coming a bit deeper into January after a likely period of Western ridging that could set in around New Years.

 

3. The parallel GFS model seems to have much better run to run consistency than the operational GFS. It will be interesting to see if its more muted handling of the possible 140ish W ridge about a week out ends up being correct or not.

 

4. I still say most of this winter will be warm neutral ENSO. The atmosphere has been profoundly anti El Nino for quite some time now with very high 30 day SOI. The Nino has likely peaked already.

The location of the cutoff low near HI is simply a result of the wavetrain structure. That little thing doesn’t force the pattern, the pattern forces it.

 

And I could very easily be wrong, but I’m bearish on the period from 1/10 to 2/5. To me it looks dominated by warm pool forcing propagating eastward. So, +PNA/Aleutian low even with the -EPO returning over time.

[Esquimalt]

The location of the cutoff low near HI is simply a result of the wavetrain structure. That little thing doesn’t force the pattern, the pattern forces it.

 

And I could very easily be wrong, but I’m bearish on the period from 1/10 to 2/5. To me it looks dominated by warm pool forcing propagating eastward. So, +PNA/Aleutian low even with the -EPO returning over time.

So the pattern between 1/10 and 2/5 is going to be zonal or will it be dirty ridging?

[El_Nina]

Off topic but me and my girlfriend are now engaged to be married!! one of my biggest fears after loosing my wife was not ever finding another love like me and her had but this girl Trisha came into my life and everything worked out great. We acually dated way back in 1990. She has 2 girls age 9 and 13 and i really enjoy having young ones around the home again. Just wanted to share this with all you.

Congratulations!

[TT-SEA]

My son is trying to get to the pass right now to go skiing... hope he makes it.  

 

 

 

The base up there has gone up dramatically over the last 2 weeks.   They had an 8-inch base 2 weeks ago... now the base is 50 inches at the bottom and 111 inches at the top!     Talk about an awesome turn around.      

 

The snow report was too good this morning to miss out today...

 

December 23, 2018: Today's the day we've been waiting for! The first true powder day of the year. We received 8" of blower pow overnight and it's showing no signs of stopping! Forecasts say there's another 5-6" coming our way. Summit West, Summit Central, and Alpental are open today. West and Central will be open until 5pm with Silver Fir closing at 3:30pm, and Alpental is open until 4pm with the upper mountain closing at 3pm. It's gonna be a whole new world out there today. You can't go wrong when picking a base area, powder everywhere — the groomed runs will have nice layer over them by the opening bell. Can't wait to get to it! Drive carefully on your way up and we'll see ya on the mountain!

[Phil]

Off topic but me and my girlfriend are now engaged to be married!! one of my biggest fears after loosing my wife was not ever finding another love like me and her had but this girl Trisha came into my life and everything worked out great. We acually dated way back in 1990. She has 2 girls age 9 and 13 and i really enjoy having young ones around the home again. Just wanted to share this with all you.

Congratulations, man. Wishing you two the very best.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

The location of the cutoff low near HI is simply a result of the wavetrain structure. That little thing doesn’t force the pattern, the pattern forces it.

And I could very easily be wrong, but I’m bearish on the period from 1/10 to 2/5. To me it looks dominated by warm pool forcing propagating eastward. So, +PNA/Aleutian low even with the -EPO returning over time.

This is close to a Antichrist post.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Congratulations, man. Wishing you two the very best.

Thank you Phil.

[Phil]

So the pattern between 1/10 and 2/5 is going to be zonal or will it be dirty ridging?

I think it will be a fairly ridgy period. Or at least it should trend that way with time. Don’t see much Pacific jet after the ERW cycles out and the EAMT/NAM flip initiates.