December 2018 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[Gradient Keeper]

You on the nightshift tonight?

Possibly. Cautiously optimistic.

[Omegaraptor]

Temperatures are dropping next week. That has to mean something, right?

[TigerWoodsLibido]

 

Nice Xmas present. Pocket blunt.

[ShawniganLake]

Well.... you would never see a CFL game on here. I bet less than 5% of the people in Seattle even know the BC Lions exist. Not sure if people follow the NFL up there.

 

 

So if you go into a sports bar and restaurant on Sunday afternoon... it will be NFL games on every screen like it is here?

Every screen pretty much. NFL is a big deal. Plus we get lots of American channels. We don’t have a sports cable package and probably have 5 channels of football on Sunday. Maybe see a little NHL or NBA thrown in there depending on the schedule.

[Jesse]

GFS ensemble is a major kick in the crotch.

You can say that again. Not only warm but dry too.

 

[BLI snowman]

You can say that again. Not only warm but dry too.

 

E436A2F5-BA39-41CD-AE74-8EB7165515F3.png

 

Seems like no matter what disagreement is present, the crappiest solution is going to win out. Nature of the 2018-19 beast.

[Bryant]

For a little while, at least. There’s also an ERW that’s showing up on those RMM plots, in addition to the MJO.

Little while being...? Sure seems like it will take a good 3-4 weeks to have anything line up

[El_Nina]

Hope everybody has a safe and Merry Christmas. What's everybody drinking/smoking tonight?

Captain Morgan combined with some Pineapple Express.

[Requiem]

I swear, once the jet stream gets going it's going to slam CA instead.

[Jesse]

I swear, once the jet stream gets going it's going to slam CA instead.

Probably not the worst thing in the world.

[Perturbed Member]

You can say that again. Not only warm but dry too.

 

E436A2F5-BA39-41CD-AE74-8EB7165515F3.png

 

 

Absolutely disgusting dog sh*t. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Merry Christmas friends!!!

[Bryant]

I swear, once the jet stream gets going it's going to slam CA instead.

You say that like it's a bad thing

[Perturbed Member]

06z GFS is still not on board...

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2018122506/144/500h_anom.na.png

 

 

Compare to FV3 GFS, GEM, ECMWF

 

http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gdps/2018122500/150/500h_anom.na.png

 

http://maps2.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs_fv3/2018122500/150/500h_anom.na.png

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2018122500/144/500h_anom.na.png

[Gradient Keeper]

Well unfortunately 6z GFS through Day 7 is the worst run yet. Either the GFS is overdoing the energy blasting off Siberia, or I think 12z runs later this Christmas morning trend the wrong direction. We shall find out.

 

Merry Christmas.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

From the Frontal Snowsquall family to yours, I'd like to wish everybody a Very Merry Christmas!

 

http://quotesideas.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/Winter-Snow-Merry-Christmas-photo-wish.jpg

[TT-SEA]

00Z EPS:

 

5-10 day mean:

 

 

 

 

 

10-15 day mean:

 

 

 

[TT-SEA]

Lots of frost here this morning.   It was clear most of the night but the clouds moved in from the NW about an hour ago.    There was even a band of rain that moved through Seattle in the last hour.    Thought we might have a little snow but actually just had some drizzle falling on the frost.    That is a new one.   Temp is at 33 now.  

[Jesse]

Merry Christmas!

 

[Guest Dome Buster]

Merry Christmas!

 

00BB7702-3C50-4C8D-8FA2-6DF6B01F6E0B.png

Not buying it. Must be an outlier. All forecasts continue the wet and semi-active pattern.

[Andrew.]

[Jesse]

FB_IMG_1545753802754.jpg

Hoping this can shake things up. Even if it means the difference between a wetter and more active pattern and dull split flow the rest of the winter.

[Andrew.]

Hoping this can shake things up. Even if it means the difference between a wetter and more active pattern and dull split flow the rest of the winter.

Agreed. At this point I'll take just about anything.

[Jesse]

Not buying it. Must be an outlier. All forecasts continue the wet and semi-active pattern.

Who knows. The ensembles sure changed a lot the last 24-36 hours.

[TT-SEA]

The 12Z GFS is not backing down at all on its scenario... totally at odds with the ECMWF.    The 12Z GFS is much worse than its own 00Z run.

 

Here is Sunday per the 12Z GFS.   Just 5 days away and the differences are massive for the PNW.

 

 

 

Here was the 00Z ECMWF at the same time...

 

[ShawniganLake]

The GEM continues to trend east with the cold trough.

[Timmy]

The GEM continues to trend east with the cold trough.

Blame Canada!

[Guest Dome Buster]

Time to make that move to Bozeman.

[Timmy]

The gem has a 1056 high over Utah at day 10! That would be some low level outflow.

[Tyler Mode]

Clouded and fogged over so no low below freezing.  36 is all.  Ho hum haha

[MossMan]

36 and cloudy. Merry Christmas everyone!

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Merry Christmas to all of you. Looks like Santa came.

[Timmy Supercell]

2.70" yesterday. 2" on sections of the ground that did not have snow after the morning amount.

 

 

 

 

[TT-SEA]

Merry Christmas to all of you. Looks like Santa came.

 

 

Wow... he dropped off a crap load of presents there!   

[TT-SEA]

2.70" yesterday. 2" on sections of the ground that did not have snow after the morning amount.

 

 

 

 

What a gorgeous Christmas morning there!  

[Timmy Supercell]

Still a low amount of snow at this time. I just updated my signature that now has a whopping 6.00" 

[TT-SEA]

Some frost on the ground still... and it cleared up again.

 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

2.70" yesterday. 2" on sections of the ground that did not have snow after the morning amount.

 

 

 

 

Enjoy man. Been 10 years since my most recent one(# 2 lifetime) It's beautiful. Grateful to have been able to experience more than one.

[TT-SEA]

Sort of a white Christmas here... clouds appear to be moving back in again now.

 

[Phil]

Interestingly enough, even with the +ENSO, the daily northern hemispheric surface temperature anomaly is now the lowest it’s been in over 3 years.