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December 2018 Weather in the Pacific Northwest


Tyler Mode

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Interestingly enough, even with the +ENSO, the daily northern hemispheric surface temperature anomaly is now the lowest it’s been in over 3 years.

 

We will make sure to keep the warmth situated in the west coast warm finger.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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Oh my lord. If this verifies it’ll probably cause NOAA’s supercomputers to spontaneously combust. What a complicated mess...old school PV self-destruction brought on by what was (initially) a modest bump.

 

Can see the +EPO has a stratospheric “tendril” too. So that’s actually coupled..hence the stubbornness.

 

2Mr3VK8.jpg

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Oh my lord. If this verifies it’ll probably cause NOAA’s supercomputers to spontaneously combust. What a complicated mess...old school PV self-destruction brought on by what was (initially) a modest bump.

 

Can see the +EPO has a stratospheric “tendril” too. So that’s actually coupled..hence the stubbornness.

 

2Mr3VK8.jpg

So far all the longer range models and the ensembles are showing a huge ridge right over us with all the cold air going East.  Which looks like typical Nino.  Do you agree with the models, or is there a chance that the NW could still get some cold?

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Time to make that move to Bozeman.

 

Snowfall last night and a low of 12F this morning with more snow expected here tonight! It's lovely here this morning.

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Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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Merry Christmas everyone!

 

35° here with cloudy skies. Feels like it could snow out...

 

Lets bust up this vortex for the new year!

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Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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So far all the longer range models and the ensembles are showing a huge ridge right over us with all the cold air going East. Which looks like typical Nino. Do you agree with the models, or is there a chance that the NW could still get some cold?

Phil seems more bullish than I am, but the Nino regime you see being modeled is the MJO pushing into the Pacific. The SSW will just cause the flood gates to open where the upper air configuration allows

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42 down here. Doubt we keep it under 50 but here's hoping.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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Oh my lord. If this verifies it’ll probably cause NOAA’s supercomputers to spontaneously combust. What a complicated mess...old school PV self-destruction brought on by what was (initially) a modest bump.

 

Can see the +EPO has a stratospheric “tendril” too. So that’s actually coupled..hence the stubbornness.

 

2Mr3VK8.jpg

 

Kaboom!

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So far all the longer range models and the ensembles are showing a huge ridge right over us with all the cold air going East. Which looks like typical Nino. Do you agree with the models, or is there a chance that the NW could still get some cold?

The NW could definitely score some cold. But that vortex over Alaska/GOA needs to decouple from its stratospheric tendril first. Sort of a bad luck placement there more than anything.

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Phil seems more bullish than I am, but the Nino regime you see being modeled is the MJO pushing into the Pacific. The SSW will just cause the flood gates to open where the upper air configuration allows

Well, I’m saying there’s high potential. These SSW events are notorious for flummoxing the models at the very last minute and sending cold where it isn’t “supposed” to go.

 

See last Feb. Phase-8 MJO when the SSW and western cold occurred. Often times the MJO/NAM/wavetrain relationship gets all f**ked up when a SSW occurs, as you’re literally tearing down and rebuilding the communicative conduits between the tropics and extratropics.

 

You can get massive changes in the modeled solutions within 5 days. And it can happen in the blink of an eye across all guidance at once.

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The west-Pacific warm pool is..active.

 

And that’s putting it lightly. Both an MJO wave and a slow-propagating ERW have congealed there.

 

aW1ABF3.jpg

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I think this is going to end up being one of the worst winters I have ever experienced here in the PNW.

 

45 years of winters, so that is saying something.

 

January is looking like a total loss.

The PNW encompasses much more than western WA state. Over here in the northeastern part of the state, it's been unusually dry as well. I have lived here since June of 15'. Each winter since, at my house, there has been at least a foot of snow on the ground on Christmas day. Today there is barely 3". 

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Lot of cold air around the NH by +ENSO standards.

 

The emerging WPAC forcing could change that equation eventually, but until then..

 

hlnONnn.png

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I wonder if snow wizard will be back this winter. Hopefully Santa brought him a trip to somewhere snowy.

My heart breaks for him ☹️

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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And we will be under a huge ridge of high pressure while the rest of North America is cold. I would rather have the usual wet with mountain snow than being stuck in an endless inversion like what is coming for us.

 

We'll probably be under a ridge through the first week of January but the 12z GEFS shows some retrogression as the ridge amplifies up into Alaska as we head into the 2nd week of January. I still like our chances for something big in January, especially with the Polar Vortex self destructing.

 

gfs-ens_z500a_namer_fh240-384.gif

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Been in the 40s all day so far. Currently upper 40s in the s valley.

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

24

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