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December 2018 Weather in the Pacific Northwest


Tyler Mode

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The 12Z ECMWF shows a warm conveyor belt of rain approaching the coast by next Sunday afternoon just like the 00Z run... basically dry for the next 8 days.   

 

Looks like the trough will actually move through by next Monday which should lower snow levels again.  

Looks like the 850's are pretty normal at day 10 with another storm heading our way.  Normal December weather, in other words.  High pressure is off to the east, so it doesn't look like it would split the next system, and with high pressure to the south, it looks like it would be heading our way.

 

ecmwf_mslp_uv850_namer_11.png

 

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Spiders apparently are still surviving. How, I don't know. I just squished two on the window sill, it would be nice if I saw more centipedes but please there is a reason it's December now! Spiders should be extinct!

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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I followed the cold front up the mountain yesterday. I started in Sandy around 5 when it was starting to really pour and began heading east on highway 26. Just after Sandy there was already a little snow in the rain. The mix of snow and rain kept up until I got to welches and the precip rate dropped and no snow was in the rain anymore. Nothing changed until I got up to silent rock and hit some decently heavy snow. The heavy snow kept going into government camp but the roads remained just slushy and no chains were needed. The snow stopped pretty quickly and they only picked up an inch or two up around 4000'. No more fell overnight either so another disappointer has happened.

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I followed the cold front up the mountain yesterday. I started in Sandy around 5 when it was starting to really pour and began heading east on highway 26. Just after Sandy there was already a little snow in the rain. The mix of snow and rain kept up until I got to welches and the precip rate dropped and no snow was in the rain anymore. Nothing changed until I got up to silent rock and hit some decently heavy snow. The heavy snow kept going into government camp but the roads remained just slushy and no chains were needed. The snow stopped pretty quickly and they only picked up an inch or two up around 4000'. No more fell overnight either so another disappointer has happened.

You killed this forum and this winter.

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I followed the cold front up the mountain yesterday. I started in Sandy around 5 when it was starting to really pour and began heading east on highway 26. Just after Sandy there was already a little snow in the rain. The mix of snow and rain kept up until I got to welches and the precip rate dropped and no snow was in the rain anymore. Nothing changed until I got up to silent rock and hit some decently heavy snow. The heavy snow kept going into government camp but the roads remained just slushy and no chains were needed. The snow stopped pretty quickly and they only picked up an inch or two up around 4000'. No more fell overnight either so another disappointer has happened.

 

Given the high precip rates as that front passed the metro area I would have expected much better than 1-2 inches at 4000ft. Pretty lame. Seems like things just dried out very fast once it started to actually cool down. 

 

The sunset rest area on 26 @ 1400ft in the coast range was at 32-34F last night but there was very little moisture left. 

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Given the high precip rates as that front passed the metro area I would have expected much better than 1-2 inches at 4000ft. Pretty lame. Seems like things just dried out very fast once it started to actually cool down.

 

The sunset rest area on 26 @ 1400ft in the coast range was at 32-34F last night but there was very little moisture left.

It seemed like the front died once it hit the cascades.
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If this verifies, a legit SSW is probably going to happen.

 

Perfect wave-1 conduit right here. And well-timed!

 

whekEbc.png

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I don’t want to jinx it, but man, the modeled long range pattern is a wave activity machine.

 

I actually think this is going to happen.

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Are there any indications as to where any subsequent arctic outbreak is likely to go?

So many potential variables..I have no idea. My guess is that, if Arctic air is to affect the West, it will happen before January 10th.

 

Forcings turn unfavorable from 1/10 to 2/5, SSW or not, so it would probably have to happen before then. Though anything can happen when you blow up the vortex, so my projections could be wrong.

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41/32 here today. Good start to December!

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Had a high of 44 which is the coldest yet. Good to see.

 

My dad just got a gig in Bend so he will be commuting back and forth over Santiam Pass starting Dec 10.  Time for him to get his tires changed.

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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If this verifies, a legit SSW is probably going to happen.

 

Perfect wave-1 conduit right here. And well-timed!

 

whekEbc.png

Do you think the SSW could result in a legit arctic blast into the PNW later in December and or early January? I recall you said SSW are really good for bringing arctic air into the PNW during +ENSO's?

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So many potential variables..I have no idea. My guess is that, if Arctic air is to affect the West, it will happen before January 10th.

 

Forcings turn unfavorable from 1/10 to 2/5, SSW or not, so it would probably have to happen before then. Though anything can happen when you blow up the vortex, so my projections could be wrong.

After 1/10 during an El Nino is the beginning of Spring for the PNW.  I am actually liking the long range pattern being shown since it would probably bring a lot of snow to my area.  And if it leads to a legit arctic outbreak for the PNW, even better.

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After 1/10 during an El Nino is the beginning of Spring for the PNW. I am actually liking the long range pattern being shown since it would probably bring a lot of snow to my area. And if it leads to a legit arctic outbreak for the PNW, even better.

I don't think this will be a full Nino.

 

Or follow any norms even if it is... because of low solar.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Getting ready to go over blewit pass towing a 14k load and it looks f***** nasty up there. Should be fun.

 

Compact snow and ice, still snowing, and chains required for a load your size.  Be careful.  Blewett is not nice at all during snow.  And a lot of traffic may be coming from Leavenworth, so the roads could be busy.  

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Looks like the bulk of the rain goes south again with this latest GFS run.

"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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00z is pretty decent again in the long range. Could we be setting up for a big Christmas and new Years?

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Quite a bit of cold onshore flow in the extended of the 18z FV3.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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