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March 2023 Observations and Discussion

Tom

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

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Is March rolling in like a Lion or Lamb this year???  As we close out Met Winter in a few days, how will nature treat us as we enter Met Spring?  Let me give you a quick clue...#delayedspring....head to Florida and the Southeast for Spring Break action!  #beachtime

As has been the case in recent years, the same ugly and chilly pattern appears to be taking over as the effects of the SSW event and High Latitude Blocking will allow the seasonal slowing of the jet stream to mature.  This will undoubtedly produce some fascinating weather this month.  The battle of the seasons will be heightened across the S Plains and into the Southeast but in the Heartland of the Nation, I see some bonafide Spring Winter Storms brewing.  It appears MAR is trying to open like a Lion as the models are starting to dial up another TX Panhandle Hook.  Let's discuss...

0z EPS starting to trend a bit more interesting... @MIKEKC @Clinton 

1.gif

 

0z GEFS continues to lead the pack...in fact, the 0z GFS op is dialing a major storm for the S MW up into the Lower Lakes... @Niko @jaster220 and the Detroit crew are in a good spot IMHO...

 

image.gif

 

06z GFS...

snku_acc-imp.conus.png

 

This board is going to remain busy this month and the storm parade is not letting up as we progress through mid month.  March Madness in the weather dept!

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Grizzcoat
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Near Hayward,WI-

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Largest flakes I've ever seen!! Some are easily 1.5 to even 2" across!!       VID_20230311_130947.3gp

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Literally the size of half dollars!! PXL_20230311_185755022.mp4

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ATW Enthusiast

ATW

Posted
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1 hour ago, Clinton said:

6z GFS with a heck of a storm from my place up towards @ATW @Niko and @jaster220.  

1677909600-TScihaTcTcg.png

6z GEFS looks great.  We may need a thread if the 12z models agree.

1677898800-YnqMAFGVEWM.png

6z Euro Mean also coming around.

1677909600-lWksxWoyr4s.png

This would be nice. The trend has not been our friend but I’ve lived in Missouri long enough to see some back loaded thumps. 

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jaster220 Grand Master

jaster220

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@Tom @Clinton

Not only does long-term SEMI climo get snowier for March, this region has gone years without even an average March. All that to say that we're overdue. If you see my other post in February thread, I'm really ready more for spring than winter. Nonetheless, I don't get to choose ofc. This GEFS scenario has all the looks of a classic hit here. Maybe even an ORD to DTW special finally.

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Iceresistance Grand Master

Iceresistance

Posted
Posted
5 hours ago, Tom said:

Is March rolling in like a Lion or Lamb this year???  As we close out Met Winter in a few days, how will nature treat us as we enter Met Spring?  Let me give you a quick clue...#delayedspring....head to Florida and the Southeast for Spring Break action!  #beachtime

As has been the case in recent years, the same ugly and chilly pattern appears to be taking over as the effects of the SSW event and High Latitude Blocking will allow the seasonal slowing of the jet stream to mature.  This will undoubtedly produce some fascinating weather this month.  The battle of the seasons will be heightened across the S Plains and into the Southeast but in the Heartland of the Nation, I see some bonafide Spring Winter Storms brewing.  It appears MAR is trying to open like a Lion as the models are starting to dial up another TX Panhandle Hook.  Let's discuss...

0z EPS starting to trend a bit more interesting... @MIKEKC @Clinton 

1.gif

 

0z GEFS continues to lead the pack...in fact, the 0z GFS op is dialing a major storm for the S MW up into the Lower Lakes... @Niko @jaster220 and the Detroit crew are in a good spot IMHO...

 

image.gif

 

06z GFS...

snku_acc-imp.conus.png

 

This board is going to remain busy this month and the storm parade is not letting up as we progress through mid month.  March Madness in the weather dept!

What is wrong with the GFS image? It's messing my mind up!

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Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible!

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted

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mlgamer Experienced

mlgamer

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1 hour ago, Clinton said:

12z GFS keeps the storm track close to the same, CMC and ICON are further south.

Clinton, I'm thinking this is the Nov 26th system using the LRC...right? If so, it makes sense this would just miss me to the southeast and put you in a fairly good place. GFS/Euro 500mb forecast maps match up pretty well with Nov26/27 (roughly 97/98 days or so).

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23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24)

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Clinton Grand Master

Clinton

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Posted
58 minutes ago, mlgamer said:

Clinton, I'm thinking this is the Nov 26th system using the LRC...right? If so, it makes sense this would just miss me to the southeast and put you in a fairly good place. GFS/Euro 500mb forecast maps match up pretty well with Nov26/27 (roughly 97/98 days or so).

Yes I just hope it's cold enough this time!

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Niko Veteran

Niko

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Tom said:

12z EPS just took a massive leap towards the GEFS…time to whip up a storm thread!  I’m out so anyone else that wants to go right ahead.

@TomStarted one...ready to Rock N Roll.....

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN Insane!

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024: Trace

Season So Far: 26.7"

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jaster220 Grand Master

jaster220

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, KTPmidMO said:

Where did you start it? I'm not seeing it for some reason.

It needs to be pinned by staff

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Andie Grand Master

Andie

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, Sparky said:

Some are saying that la Nina should end this spring, which I would welcome as it seems summer droughts are more likely here during la Nina. I'm tired of droughts in the summer or anytime for that matter, and I'm hoping this summer will have more storms. 

Oh man Sparky, the entire State of Texas supports you on this!  We’re sick of it!

Edit:    Almost 11 pm and 71*. 
Forecast is 81* tomorrow.  Is this crazy or what?  
Oh, and fog.  

 

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

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Woke up to the sound of a massive bolt of lighting that struck right at 3:45am....it literally shook me outta bed! Ahh, the sights and sounds of Spring are here...well, at least for today as we head up to hear 60F as the main low tracks nearly overhead around Noon.

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

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Hmmm, some changes in the -PNA are showing up which will alleviate that pesky SER as we near the 8th-11th period where I anticipate a large scale storm to develop across the Heartland of our Great Nation.

image.png

 

0z EPS snow mean is fully onboard that its gonna continue to SNOW where those who have been missed...let's see, bc this pattern setting up is prob the most favorable and last time of the season to try and enjoy a snowfall for a few days before it melts away.

2.gif

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Andie Grand Master

Andie

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Talk about contrast. 

Texas Panhandle - This week, the region has been blanketed in a thick layer of dust kicked up by powerful winds that reached as high of 69 miles per hour. 

Then North Texas receives a thunderstorm and heavy rain and lightning last night. Something for everyone.  
We’ll reach 75 today and a low of 47. 
 

 

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

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The Euro Weeklies from last night...let's just say, March will be an exciting month of weather for the central CONUS and the Heartland of the Nation.  Coast-to-Coast action along with MUCH satisfaction in the weather dept! 

It all begins as we open up the month tomorrow as a powerful trough "Rounds the Bend" of the west coast and into the SW region...

1.gif

 

0z EPS....post 8th is when Winter Returns for the Central Plains/MW....you can give thanks to the stout -NAO/-EPO in tandem working together and Blocking up the wx pattern.  Buckle Up!

2.gif

 

 

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Andie Grand Master

Andie

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Round Two!   March will live up to the Lion entering the South and Southeast.  
Severe storms will strike E. Texas this week with a high of 83 today
Wednesday will see a 30%, then 70% chance of rain with Thursday giving us severe storms.  
The storms will likely intensify as they push east.  And the South will face threat of tornadoes again.  
Battening down this week!

Edit: It could get ugly. 
I’m expecting Twisters
 

53DFE0A2-5166-4B3D-9470-CF1A18806112.jpeg

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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mlgamer Experienced

mlgamer

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As we move into March, Topeka is sitting at it's 3rd least snowiest winter over the past 25 years. Of course, that could change before the end of the season.

Five least snowiest winters in Topeka over the last 25 years:

  • 11-12: 3.1"
  • 15-16: 4.9"
  • 22-23: 5.8"
  • 16-17: 6.6"
  • 17-18: 8.1"

(Also note that this list of five includes three consecutive winters: 15-16, 16-17, 17-18)

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23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24)

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CentralNebWeather Grand Master

CentralNebWeather

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NWS Hastings afternoon disco: 

However, there have been ensemble consistent trends for several
days (honest longer), that cooler weather will settle into the
area about mid-next week. Temperatures in day 7 will show signs
of slipping, but the colder air looks most likely to move in just
outside this 7-day forecast period. Below normal temperatures will
likely last at least a couple of weeks per long-term ensembles,
meaning the middle of March will have a more winter feel than
spring feel.
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Andie Grand Master

Andie

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Our max today is 84*.  Just came in from outside and it's very dry air for us at 12%, wind at 8mph.Wednesday will be uneventful  30% chance of rain, maybe 6* cooler. 

However Thursday is the big dog.  Cooler air High 77* But wind will pick up to 25 as the little dog runs for East Texas. Big dog will catch up and the clash will result in some hail, high winds, possibility of tornadoes further east imo, but we aren't exempt.  I feel bad for those east of Texas as the moist southern air will clash with what I'm feeling out there right now.  Dry, somewhat suffocating air.  Way too early for this combo of dry air, heat, and a cold front.  Never a good sign down here.

On a positive note. The wild plums are blooming.  It's officially Spring!

 

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Andie Grand Master

Andie

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A 114 mph microburst struck Memphis, Tx. during the dust storm this week. I can’t imagine how that felt. I’ve been in a small one, but this must have been a blast furnace.  
Memphis is located in the SW corner of the Panhandle.  

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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westMJim Veteran

westMJim

Posted
Posted

  Welcome to meteorological spring.   A brief recap of meteorological winter. This past winter was a very mild one with a mean of 30.9 that was above the average mean of 37.3. The highest temperature during this past meteorological winter was 54 on December 29,30 and February 14. The lowest temperature of +2 was on January 31st. There was a total of 58.1” of snow fall during meteorological winter.

For yesterday the official H/L at Grand Rapids was 43/33 there was a trace of snow fall. The sun was out 44% of the time and there was a trace of snow on the ground. The over nigh low was a mild one with a low of 34 and there was around 0.02” of rain fall. For today the average H/L is 38/23 the record high of 58 was set in 1992 and the record low of -5 was set in 1967 and the record snow fall amount of 7.4” fell in 2015

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tStacsh Mentor

tStacsh

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42 minutes ago, westMJim said:

  Welcome to meteorological spring.   A brief recap of meteorological winter. This past winter was a very mild one with a mean of 30.9 that was above the average mean of 37.3. The highest temperature during this past meteorological winter was 54 on December 29,30 and February 14. The lowest temperature of +2 was on January 31st. There was a total of 58.1” of snow fall during meteorological winter.

For yesterday the official H/L at Grand Rapids was 43/33 there was a trace of snow fall. The sun was out 44% of the time and there was a trace of snow on the ground. The over nigh low was a mild one with a low of 34 and there was around 0.02” of rain fall. For today the average H/L is 38/23 the record high of 58 was set in 1992 and the record low of -5 was set in 1967 and the record snow fall amount of 7.4” fell in 2015

Looking like another delayed spring for a few weeks at least.  At least below normal means low to mid 30's now.  

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Jaycee_CHI Apprentice

Jaycee_CHI

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As a Cali native, this is absolutely amazing to see! I forgot it was possible for this area to be green and snow covered, so pretty! 😍

 

FA21C794-58C2-49EE-A422-4A4A4D3D5E68.thumb.jpeg.788e0d770c6ba0c3ba4152f5f8418ac8.jpeg

 

Additionally, I was woken up around 1 am to the loudest clap(s) of thunder ever. All the car alarms were going off on my street, and I was able to get this next strike on video! I literally can’t wait for severe wx season, hoping I get some good pics this year with my new camera! 🤞 

 

 


 

 

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Grizzcoat Veteran

Grizzcoat

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Duluth now challenging all time snow depth for the date.  29" at noon and still snowing hard. The 36" on at 12Z on the 2nd may be challenged.

KDLH 011855Z 07016G25KT 1/4SM R09/2800V3500FT -SN BLSN VV010 M06/M08 A2979 RMK AO2 PK WND 07029/1807 SLP111 P0002 T10611083
KDLH 011844Z 07018G23KT 1/4SM R09/3000V3500FT -SN BLSN VV010 M06/M08 A2979 RMK AO2 PK WND 07029/1807 P0002 T10561083
KDLH 011755Z 06016G23KT 1/4SM R09/3000FT SN BLSN VV008 M06/M08 A2980 RMK AO2 PK WND 07028/1737 SLP114 SNINCR 1/29 P0005 60025 T10561078 11044 21061 53002

 

image.thumb.png.2a1f1bfa3af47bb91c634e3146cb124f.png

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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