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March 2023 Observations and Discussion


Tom

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Today should be the best day of the week with temps near 60 degrees and sunny! Rain chances start to increase by Thursday through Saturday. This would be some much needed rain for the many farmers in the county. We may not see another sub freezing morning for at least the next week or longer.
Records for today: High 85 (1948) / Low 12 (1986) / Precipitation 3.45" (2000) / Snow 5.0" (1932)
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All historical weather data analytics posted by me is specifically for the climate of Chester County PA.  We continually analyze the actual raw non-adjusted NWS certified Coop observed climate data for Chester County.  There have been no post observation adjustments to any of the detailed analytics. All data is sourced from trained NWS observers and spotters. The life blood of science is to challenge what is thought to be known. The concept that climate change etc. is somehow “settled science” describes a religion - a belief system that does not welcome challenges. We should all continue to challenge science!    Snow Totals 2023/24 = 24.5" -  11/28 (0.3") / 12/7 (0.8") / 12/11 (0.8") / 1/6 (2.0") / 1/16 (2.8") / 1/19 (4.5") / 2/13 (10.5") / 2/17 (2.8")

Average Chester County PA Snow at elevations over 660 FT ASL (1983-Present) = 35.9" Snow totals by season: 2022/23 (2.7") /2021/22 (20.5")  2020/21 snow  (52.2") /  2019/20 snow (5.8" )/ 2018/19 snow (35.1" )/ 2017/18 snow (58.5") / 2016/17 snow (24.0")/ 2015/16 snow (40.8")/ 2014/15 snow = (55.3") /2013/14 snow (80.0").

Check out the historical Western Chester County PA website at https://www.chescowx.com.  Follow me on twitter at https://twitter.com/ChescoWx and join us on the #1 social media source for all things Chester County weather on the Chester County Weather Page at https://www.facebook.com/groups/chescowx

National Weather Service  SKYWARN® Trained Spotter CHPA-174

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18 hours ago, Andie said:

Texas will be glad for the rain although I’m sure it will have plenty of rough weather along with it.  

It seems like in some of parts of the south, every time it rains it thunders. And most of the time it thunders, tornado sirens.. 

Or am I exaggerating? 😅

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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Euro has gone crazy-- personally--  I think  it's off. Likely WAY off, but its the Euro. -- But if so-- Top 10 snowiest March is possible for DSM and other locales in IA-- DSM currently 9.9" for March-- need 15.8" for Top 10. Long stretch - I get it- but Euro keeps shoving snowfield further SE with this system.  Local DMX disco's have gone full blown spring with no hint of snow in S.IA---  Is this winter fatigue - or legit forecasting??? I think some of both. Time will tell.

sn10_acc-imp.us_mw.png

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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More sun than expected allowed Cedar Rapids to jump to 58º this afternoon.  It's really feeling like spring.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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7 hours ago, Timmy Supercell said:

It seems like in some of parts of the south, every time it rains it thunders. And most of the time it thunders, tornado sirens.. 

Or am I exaggerating? 😅

At certain times of the year I could swear that thunder triggers the tornado sirens!!   
We’ve had one siren event so far this year.   The NW horizon was black as night and sirens wailing.  Always gives me the creeps.  
No,…I wouldn’t say you you’re exaggerating. 🤔
 

Rain coming Friday.  

  • Storm 1

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Yesterday was the warmest day so far this March with an official H/L of 53/32. There was no rain or snow fall and the sun was out 52% of the possible time. The overnight low so far this morning is a mild 41 and with cloudy skies that is the current temperature. For today the average H/L is now at 47/29 the record high of 85 was set in 2012 and the record low of 6 was set in 1906 the most snow fall of 6.5” fell in 1965. Last year the H/L was 46/37.

 

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30% chance of rain today. 70% tomorrow.  
It will be a humid day with a high of 80.  The Low will push in from the west coast and deliver some much needed rain.  
We need it. It’s been a dry spring. 

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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I was awakened by the sound of the gusty SW winds wailing against the south facing windows around 2:30am.  CF is making its way through the valley as we speak.

Screen Shot 2023-03-22 at 5.29.33 AM.png

 

Snowbowl has had 10" over the past 2 days and prob another FOOT by tomorrow...the incredible ski season continues (351" to date)...

Screen Shot 2023-03-22 at 5.32.58 AM.png

 

 

 

Pretty cool vids showing up on social media of the "Eye of the storm" that slammed into San Fransisco yesterday and continues to spin just offshore.  Notice the multiple vortices that spin up.  What a powerful cyclone!

image.gif

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It appears we may need a thread for the early weekend lakes cutter.  The southeast models have come northwest and the nw Euro is sagging back southeast.

image.thumb.png.059149f1dd39188c90d269b90edff4b1.png

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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11 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

12z UK

image.thumb.png.e226ddb0e6856331a5e8ed8232be949e.png

I just noticed last night models were trying to show some snow this weekend. LOL  Obviously this is never gonna happen, but I'll still follow along.  Looks like the GFS and several other models have the heavier snow further east than the UK and Euro do.  

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1 hour ago, bud2380 said:

I just noticed last night models were trying to show some snow this weekend. LOL  Obviously this is never gonna happen, but I'll still follow along.  Looks like the GFS and several other models have the heavier snow further east than the UK and Euro do.  

GFS came pretty far NW in the 12z run along with the NAM 

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10 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

EPS Mean

 

sn10_acc-mean-imp.us_mw.png

Most runs of the models have shown the trowal snow really getting organized once it gets up into Wisconsin.  The 12z op Euro is an outlier in this regard.  If the low strengthens a bit earlier, the better snow could extend down into eastern Iowa.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Yesterday was a cloudy day with 0% of possible sunshine. The official H/L was 49/40 and after sundown there was 0.04” of rain fall there was no snow fall. The overnight low so far for today is a mild 42 and that is the current temperature with light rain falling. For today the average H/L is 48/29 the record high of 74 was set in 1907 and 2012 the record low of 4 was set in 1983.The record snow fall amount of 8.4” fell in 1956 (that was the year of the biggest tornado to hit the Grand Rapids area on April 3rd) Last year the H/L was 47/39. The next week looks to have several chances of rain and maybe some snow tossed in as well there looks to be some wind to deal with also. Temperatures look to be on the cooler side of average and no real warm spring days are in the forecast.

 

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This has been a very mild winter season here in Michigan. Using the AWSSI all locations in lower Michigan have had a “mild” winter season. While Sault Ste Marie and Herman in the UP have had a “moderate” winter and Ironwood has had a average winter and Marquette has had a “severe” winter. Here are the current AWSSI point values. Grand Rapids 579, Muskegon 443, Lansing 433, Ann Arbor 439, Detroit 340. Port Huron 284, Flint 456, Saginaw 482, Houghton Lake 815, Alpena 813, Cheboygan 860. In the UP Sault Ste Marie 1601, Hermon 2109, Ironwood 2111 and Marquette 1952.

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Through today we are only at 62% of normal precipitation. Much of this due to our snow drought ( we should be at over 34" of snow so far this season but stand at only 2.7") However, we received 0.14" of much needed rain overnight with more over the way over the next 3 days. With somewhere around 0.50" possible. Today will be mild then we turn much chillier for both tomorrow and Saturday. The NWS has highs in the 50's for both Friday and Saturday...my bet is we get nowhere near that warm as both Friday and especially look like we won't escape the 40's with a chilly cold rain. The sun returns on Sunday with temps near normal in the mid-50's
Records for today: High 81 (1907) / Low 14 (1940) / Precipitation 1.20" (1903) / Snow 4.5" (1896)
image.png.6f17e6b90b12b825d26df2a764194b8e.png

All historical weather data analytics posted by me is specifically for the climate of Chester County PA.  We continually analyze the actual raw non-adjusted NWS certified Coop observed climate data for Chester County.  There have been no post observation adjustments to any of the detailed analytics. All data is sourced from trained NWS observers and spotters. The life blood of science is to challenge what is thought to be known. The concept that climate change etc. is somehow “settled science” describes a religion - a belief system that does not welcome challenges. We should all continue to challenge science!    Snow Totals 2023/24 = 24.5" -  11/28 (0.3") / 12/7 (0.8") / 12/11 (0.8") / 1/6 (2.0") / 1/16 (2.8") / 1/19 (4.5") / 2/13 (10.5") / 2/17 (2.8")

Average Chester County PA Snow at elevations over 660 FT ASL (1983-Present) = 35.9" Snow totals by season: 2022/23 (2.7") /2021/22 (20.5")  2020/21 snow  (52.2") /  2019/20 snow (5.8" )/ 2018/19 snow (35.1" )/ 2017/18 snow (58.5") / 2016/17 snow (24.0")/ 2015/16 snow (40.8")/ 2014/15 snow = (55.3") /2013/14 snow (80.0").

Check out the historical Western Chester County PA website at https://www.chescowx.com.  Follow me on twitter at https://twitter.com/ChescoWx and join us on the #1 social media source for all things Chester County weather on the Chester County Weather Page at https://www.facebook.com/groups/chescowx

National Weather Service  SKYWARN® Trained Spotter CHPA-174

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