March 2023 Observations and Discussion

[Hawkeye]

The Euro still has the Monday system as well.

[Iowawx]

Snow total for both Friday and Monday. 

 

 

[MIKEKC]

The EURO has KC going into a developing comma head on Friday night....

Interesting.....

[MIKEKC]

March 23-24th 1912, KC had a 25 inch snow storm and Olathe, KS set a state record of 36 INCHES!!!

OMG!!

And, the EURO just came out with a potential snow for KC Friday night....

I'll bet it's under the 25 inches form 1912

[bud2380]

16 minutes ago, Iowawx said:

Snow total for both Friday and Monday. 

 

 

 

[Madtown]

47 minutes ago, Iowawx said:

Snow total for both Friday and Monday. 

 

 

Come on north!

[bud2380]

EPS Mean

 

[Hawkeye]

10 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

EPS Mean

 

Most runs of the models have shown the trowal snow really getting organized once it gets up into Wisconsin.  The 12z op Euro is an outlier in this regard.  If the low strengthens a bit earlier, the better snow could extend down into eastern Iowa.

[MIKEKC]

WOW! Just 50 miles to the SW of KC, temperatures have soared to 80 degrees!!!! Meanwhile, kc just got out of the 40's and jump to 53 degrees. 

Now that's a true warm front

 

[bud2380]

DVN AFD is not at all impressed by this system.  

[Clinton]

Very nice Spring day here, I had thunderstorms with some heavy rain this morning and the current temperature is 73.

[Money]

NAM/GFS came NW again and lining up with the euro 

 

 

[Money]

GEM gets it down to 976

[Money]

UKIE gets it down to 982

[westMJim]

Yesterday was a cloudy day with 0% of possible sunshine. The official H/L was 49/40 and after sundown there was 0.04” of rain fall there was no snow fall. The overnight low so far for today is a mild 42 and that is the current temperature with light rain falling. For today the average H/L is 48/29 the record high of 74 was set in 1907 and 2012 the record low of 4 was set in 1983.The record snow fall amount of 8.4” fell in 1956 (that was the year of the biggest tornado to hit the Grand Rapids area on April 3^rd) Last year the H/L was 47/39. The next week looks to have several chances of rain and maybe some snow tossed in as well there looks to be some wind to deal with also. Temperatures look to be on the cooler side of average and no real warm spring days are in the forecast.

 

[westMJim]

This has been a very mild winter season here in Michigan. Using the AWSSI all locations in lower Michigan have had a “mild” winter season. While Sault Ste Marie and Herman in the UP have had a “moderate” winter and Ironwood has had a average winter and Marquette has had a “severe” winter. Here are the current AWSSI point values. Grand Rapids 579, Muskegon 443, Lansing 433, Ann Arbor 439, Detroit 340. Port Huron 284, Flint 456, Saginaw 482, Houghton Lake 815, Alpena 813, Cheboygan 860. In the UP Sault Ste Marie 1601, Hermon 2109, Ironwood 2111 and Marquette 1952.

[Tom]

0z EPS...a pretty wide swath of snow showing up for IA/WI peeps...

[westMJim]

A cold front has came thru and the temperature has now dropped down to 37 here in MBY with a cold rain falling.

[chescowxman]

Through today we are only at 62% of normal precipitation. Much of this due to our snow drought ( we should be at over 34" of snow so far this season but stand at only 2.7") However, we received 0.14" of much needed rain overnight with more over the way over the next 3 days. With somewhere around 0.50" possible. Today will be mild then we turn much chillier for both tomorrow and Saturday. The NWS has highs in the 50's for both Friday and Saturday...my bet is we get nowhere near that warm as both Friday and especially look like we won't escape the 40's with a chilly cold rain. The sun returns on Sunday with temps near normal in the mid-50's

Records for today: High 81 (1907) / Low 14 (1940) / Precipitation 1.20" (1903) / Snow 4.5" (1896)

[Hawkeye]

Local mets were only forecasting snow showers across northern Iowa overnight.  Instead, 2-5" fell.

[Hawkeye]

The Euro runs are going back and forth.  The 06z and 18z runs are southeast, the 00z and 12z runs are nw.

[MIKEKC]

KC is back on the wintry side of the front with a current temp of 36 degrees. This is after getting into the mid 50's to some areas seeing 60 degrees throughout the city. Again, this is quite the cold airmass for this time of year, not unheard of, but, it's cold from here northward. GFS model runs back around March 12th and 13th showed quite the cold pattern coming for weeks 3 and 4 of March and its been pretty darn accurate. The overall trend from March 12th was that it was not going to be a warm pattern through the end of the month. 

And the current trends for the midrange and beyond don't look much better through early April. Two weeks into HS baseball season and my son Charlie has yet to play a game. He has been rained out 3 times, one snow out last Friday, and one too cold on Saturday. 

Game scheduled for today, but.......it's 36 degrees and there's not much hope of a warm-up, plus, it's drizzling and the fields are still saturated. GEEZ

Long story short, this weather pattern is quite depressing. Very little sun this month.

BIG SNOW STORM FOR parts of Iowa up to Chicago.....NEW DATA soon

 

 

[Tom]

17 minutes ago, MIKEKC said:

KC is back on the wintry side of the front with a current temp of 36 degrees. This is after getting into the mid 50's to some areas seeing 60 degrees throughout the city. Again, this is quite the cold airmass for this time of year, not unheard of, but, it's cold from here northward. GFS model runs back around March 12th and 13th showed quite the cold pattern coming for weeks 3 and 4 of March and its been pretty darn accurate. The overall trend from March 12th was that it was not going to be a warm pattern through the end of the month. 

And the current trends for the midrange and beyond don't look much better through early April. Two weeks into HS baseball season and my son Charlie has yet to play a game. He has been rained out 3 times, one snow out last Friday, and one too cold on Saturday. 

Game scheduled for today, but.......it's 36 degrees and there's not much hope of a warm-up, plus, it's drizzling and the fields are still saturated. GEEZ

Long story short, this weather pattern is quite depressing. Very little sun this month.

BIG SNOW STORM FOR parts of Iowa up to Chicago.....NEW DATA soon

 

 

Gosh, your message is clearly why I love coming out to AZ during this time of year.  Not gonna lie, 2-3 days of No Sun is a big deal.  We had our share of cloudy and wet days these past few days, but unlike living in the MW/GL's, out here in the SW you can almost guarantee the Sun will come out.  We have a stretch of sunny days ahead and as I look out my patio window, it is clear blue skies...But chilly...only 45F.

[Tom]

Another sad stat for Chicago the other day...No 60's or 70's??  Yikes

[bud2380]

The 12z models so far (NAM, 3k NAM, FV3 and HRRR) are all well east of Iowa with the snow tomorrow night/Saturday.  Not close to what the Euro is showing.  

[bud2380]

This is starting to look really good for southern WI.  Eastern Iowa may just miss out.  The Canadian is the furthest west of all 12z models so far.

 

[BMT]

Let them have it!  on to spring!

[CentralNebWeather]

34 degrees with a wind chill in the 20's, must be spring sports season in Nebraska.  Front came through yesterday afternoon and it is chilling me to the bone.  Got used to some warmer temps last weekend and earlier this week.  We host our invitational track meet tomorrow, probably warm weather gear will be required.  Unfortunately, we keep missing out on the moisture from these fronts.  Seems like I've typed this previous sentence 100's of times over the years.  

[Hawkeye]

12z UK is a solid jump east as well.  It's fading for eastern Iowa.

[james1976]

2 hours ago, Hawkeye said:

The Euro runs are going back and forth.  The 06z and 18z runs are southeast, the 00z and 12z runs are nw.

Came down to IA just in time. Bout 2" here. Definitely didn't care to wake up to that. Must have brought it from MN lol

[MIKEKC]

Looks like a snowy stretch of January coming for a lot of folks north of I-70, I mean late march first week of April. 

NOT A WARM PATTERN is all this map above suggests

[Hawkeye]

12z Euro... a good jump east like the other models.

[Iowawx]

No way 18" of snow falls from this storm system. 

[Hawkeye]

The Euro has also dropped the Monday Iowa snow event.  That's not surprising considering most models showed little, if anything.

[CentralNebWeather]

Just really amazing at the disparity between the haves and have nots this winter.  Pretty sad.

 

[CentralNebWeather]

Northern Nebraska. My gosh. 

[MKEstorm]

I’m expecting about 6-8 inches from the Friday Night/Saturday storm! Euro has the most heaviest axis of snow just north of me…GFS and UKMET have it just about over me. So, we’ll see what happens! MKX says this may be a high end advisory event, but I believe that Winter Storm Watches will be issued.

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=MKX&issuedby=MKX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1

Friday night through Saturday: Potent mid level wave will ride northeastward from the central Plains inducing low level cyclogenesis. Models in decent agreement with this surface low tracking to the southeast of the area through northern Indiana into lower Michigan and the eastern Lakes on Saturday. Very impressive upper jet structure with plentiful right rear quad divergence and some hint of coupling in a few instances. With the sustained easterly flow off the lake as the low draws closer some rain may mix in for parts of the east and south. However dynamic cooling likely to make that duration short. A narrow corridor of enhanced snowfall rates looks plausible that the NBM is not fully latching onto yet. At this time the overall consensus is for the higher snow totals to be in the eastern and southeast cwa with amounts trailing off across the western and northwest cwa. Higher rates within any heavier bands would lead to the locally heaviest accums where the rates would potentially trump the milder road temps. We expect rather low ratios with this event with a wet heavy snow looking likely. Also, based on internal discussion and conf call with surrounding offices, given that the event is occurring during a period of typically lower travel volume, and milder road temps (in most cases) from an overall impact perspective a high end advisory looks like the more likely route for this event. However, conditions may be worse within any heavier band where roads could become overwhelmed for a time.

 

 

 

 

 

[MKEstorm]

Well, MKX stuck with the Winter Weather Advisory, but did mention that some areas could receive snow in excess of 6 inches!

 

[westMJim]

We are now down to the last week of March 2023. So far March has been a mild but somewhat snowy month. Grand Rapids, Muskegon and Lansing have been above average in both temperatures and snow fall. At Grand Rapids the official H/L yesterday was 48/36 there was no rain or snow fall and the sun was out 19% of the possible time. The overnight low here in MBY so far and the current temperature is 32. For today the average H/L is 48/29 the record high of 78 was set in 1910 and 1939 the record low of -3 was set in 1974 and the record snow fall amount of 5.3” fell in 1947. Last year the H/L was 48/33 and there was a trace of snow fall.

 

[westMJim]

Here is some weather history history for the posters in Missouri and Kansas.

1912: Residents of Kansas City began to dig out from a storm that produced 25 inches of snow in 24 hours. The snowfall total was nearly twice that of any other storm of modern record in Kansas City before or since that time. A record 40 inches of snow fell during March that year, and the total for the winter season of 67 inches was also a record. By late February of that year, Kansas City had received just six inches of snow. Olathe, Kansas received 37 inches of snow in the snowstorm, establishing a single storm record for the state of Kansas. (23rd-24th)

1929: St. Louis, Missouri soared to 92 degrees; their all-time record high for March.

[Bumblin Bman09]

Updated graphic with a WWA suggesting 4-7” for Lake County 

[chescowxman]

The thunderstorms last night and showers overnight have brought us a much needed 0.81" of rain here in Chester County PA. More rain with temps remaining in the 40's both today and tomorrow before Sunny and milder on Sunday. We could see an additional 0.5" to 1.0" of rain by Saturday evening.

Records for today: High 77 (1929) / Low 12 (1940) / Precipitation 1.21" (1989) / Snow 3.5" (1965)

[Stormy]

Earlier this month....

https://twitter.com/Olompali1/status/1636761543424749568?s=20

 

 

[Andie]

63*.  Raining !
Rain is so welcomed.  Wish we got more.  Should taper off in an hour or 2.  

 

[Tom]

1 hour ago, westMJim said:

Here is some weather history history for the posters in Missouri and Kansas.

1912: Residents of Kansas City began to dig out from a storm that produced 25 inches of snow in 24 hours. The snowfall total was nearly twice that of any other storm of modern record in Kansas City before or since that time. A record 40 inches of snow fell during March that year, and the total for the winter season of 67 inches was also a record. By late February of that year, Kansas City had received just six inches of snow. Olathe, Kansas received 37 inches of snow in the snowstorm, establishing a single storm record for the state of Kansas. (23rd-24th)

1929: St. Louis, Missouri soared to 92 degrees; their all-time record high for March.

I'm sure our KC peeps are dreaming of a storm to hit their city like this again, heck, give them half those totals and they'll be happy campers.

Meantime, the storm that is about to hit the Lower Lakes is nearly identical to what transpired in LRC Cycle #1...150 days ago.  Here was my note for this storms pattern.  Gotta love the weather!

[Tom]

33 minutes ago, Sparky said:

Earlier this month....

 

 

 

Now those are some legit "snow tunnels"...I marvel at the beauty mother nature shows us, esp up in the mountains!

[Tom]

@Sparky, I was talking with one of the neighbors in the jacuzzi yesterday afternoon and he mentioned that the city of Fountain Hills will be building a brand new astronomy science center.  This will be a 1st class observatory dome where your going to be able to see all sorts of planets, galaxies and stellar objects.  What a pleasant surprise!  The location is right next to me in an empty plot of land that has been fenced off.   I was wondering what they would be building and low and behold it will feature this amazing science facility and the largest telescope in the Valley!

 

https://bramnicklawaz.com/arizona-real-estate/an-18-million-discovery-project-proposed-for-fountain-hills/

 

https://darkskycenter.org/

[MIKEKC]

5 minutes ago, Tom said:

@Sparky, I was talking with one of the neighbors in the jacuzzi yesterday afternoon and he mentioned that the city of Fountain Hills will be building a brand new astronomy science center.  This will be a 1st class observatory dome where your going to be able to see all sorts of planets, galaxies and stellar objects.  What a pleasant surprise!  The location is right next to me in an empty plot of land that has been fenced off.   I was wondering what they would be building and low and behold it will feature this amazing science facility and the largest telescope in the Valley!

 

https://bramnicklawaz.com/arizona-real-estate/an-18-million-discovery-project-proposed-for-fountain-hills/

 

https://darkskycenter.org/

Tom, per the 06z NAM, the big one is going to hit KC Sunday night!!! LOL

 

[Tom]

24 minutes ago, MIKEKC said:

Tom, per the 06z NAM, the big one is going to hit KC Sunday night!!! LOL

 

Back-2-Back Cutters!

[Jayhawker85]

45 minutes ago, MIKEKC said:

Tom, per the 06z NAM, the big one is going to hit KC Sunday night!!! LOL

 

This would have a outside chance of happening if it wasn’t late March