Niko Posted February 26, 2023 Report Share Posted February 26, 2023 Could this be the big one for many that have not seen one yet this winter??!! Lets discuss...looking like a fun week of excitement in the weather dept. for some. 2 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 26, 2023 Author Report Share Posted February 26, 2023 Some real good hits for S MI and for others as well. 4 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 26, 2023 Report Share Posted February 26, 2023 23 minutes ago, Niko said: Could this be the big one for many that have not seen one yet this winter??!! Lets discuss...looking like a fun week of excitement in the weather dept. for some. Thanks for starting a thread, I didn't want to jinx it for anybody lol. Getting Winter weather around here has been tough, hope this one pans out. Trends today look good for us. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KTPmidMO Posted February 26, 2023 Report Share Posted February 26, 2023 18z GEFS 10:1 mean. Nice hit for my area. Not sure the last time I've seen the GEFS put out that high of totals for my area. Hopefully the trend continues into this week. This winter has been a little bit of a dud in my area. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KTPmidMO Posted February 26, 2023 Report Share Posted February 26, 2023 Does anyone here have access to all the ensemble members for the GEFS and can post them? Please and thank you. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 27, 2023 Report Share Posted February 27, 2023 2 hours ago, Clinton said: Thanks for starting a thread, I didn't want to jinx it for anybody lol. Getting Winter weather around here has been tough, hope this one pans out. Trends today look good for us. Haha, and @Niko beat me to it. I was ready to bite on this. Would be nice if it could be a wealth sharing system for KC/ORD/DTW and some others along the way. Btw, gorgeous 50F March wx here this pm. 3 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted February 27, 2023 Report Share Posted February 27, 2023 4 hours ago, Niko said: Could this be the big one for many that have not seen one yet this winter??!! Lets discuss...looking like a fun week of excitement in the weather dept. for some. I doubt it 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 27, 2023 Report Share Posted February 27, 2023 2 hours ago, KTPmidMO said: Does anyone here have access to all the ensemble members for the GEFS and can post them? Please and thank you. #4 or #16 would make more than a few Peeps happy: 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 27, 2023 Report Share Posted February 27, 2023 6 minutes ago, Stacsh said: I doubt it Appreciate the optimism. You know one of these times it's gonna happen. I'd prefer to just ignore all the model mayhem and wait until it IS happening. So much more satisfying. That's what happened with this last-minute ISW. With the Jan storm, it just seemed like we tracked that thing forever! Run after run after run. The good thing was it stayed consistent. But while it did increase amounts ever so slightly, it didn't explode into a BD, just remained a decent system the way it began it's cyber life. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 27, 2023 Report Share Posted February 27, 2023 Imagine if we had a stronger surface high to the north with this low. Good Lord. I mean it will be windy as is but just think. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 27, 2023 Report Share Posted February 27, 2023 13 minutes ago, Stacsh said: I doubt it Usually, a storm taking a track like shown has a fairly low ceiling. There are few rare exceptions so can't totally take it off the table. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 27, 2023 Report Share Posted February 27, 2023 Just now, Hoosier said: Imagine if we had a stronger surface high to the north with this low. Good Lord. I mean it will be windy as is but just think. Can you put in a request for one, lol. I will say that 12/23-24 delivered on the winds here (rare), so there's at least some precedent this season. 2/15/21 had decent winds as well for SMI. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 27, 2023 Report Share Posted February 27, 2023 EPS had a mean SLP in the mid-980's 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 27, 2023 Report Share Posted February 27, 2023 Icon huge move SE compared to previous runs Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 27, 2023 Report Share Posted February 27, 2023 GFS on the other hand looks like it wants to go north compared to previous runs Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 27, 2023 Report Share Posted February 27, 2023 GFS 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 27, 2023 Report Share Posted February 27, 2023 0z Euro EPS 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 27, 2023 Report Share Posted February 27, 2023 6z GFS 6z GEFS a step back after a promising 0z run. 0z run Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 27, 2023 Report Share Posted February 27, 2023 This system is certainly NOT lacking in the precip dept, however, we may be having to deal with warm temps at the onset but that'll not be an issue once it matures and creates its own cold air. Kinda sucks there isn't a stronger Arctic HP to our north, but hey, beggers can't be choosers in what has been a lack luster snow season. 0z Euro Control... 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 27, 2023 Report Share Posted February 27, 2023 0z EPS mean SLP track...classic cutter up the S MW/OHV... 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Black Hole Posted February 27, 2023 Report Share Posted February 27, 2023 This one is winding up just as it passes my area. Most models show little to no snow here, though a few ensemble members have a couple inches. We do get a bit of a push of cold air right ahead of it as a northerly pressure gradient briefly sets up. If that is underdone it could be beneficial for increasing snow chances but for now I've been burned enough times I am just mostly wanting to watch and wait. 1 Quote Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2") Total Ice (0.2") Coldest Low: 1F Coldest High: 5F Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tStacsh Posted February 27, 2023 Report Share Posted February 27, 2023 12 hours ago, jaster220 said: Usually, a storm taking a track like shown has a fairly low ceiling. There are few rare exceptions so can't totally take it off the table. I'm trying not to even track this one. It's currently too far south for me, but could still render some impacts here. That said, I don't want it. I want spring lol. But if it moves a little north and hits, I'll be ok with that as well. I think we warm up after the first week of March, so this could be winters last big push. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tStacsh Posted February 27, 2023 Report Share Posted February 27, 2023 The faster the models move that first wave ahead of the storm off to the east, the more it cuts north. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 27, 2023 Report Share Posted February 27, 2023 6z Euro Control 2 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 27, 2023 Report Share Posted February 27, 2023 6z EPS looks pretty good 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MIKEKC Posted February 27, 2023 Report Share Posted February 27, 2023 NAM's take....only goes out 84 hours to 6:00pm Thursday, low pressure looks like it's in a nice spot on this run to hit KC later Thursday night. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MKEstorm Posted February 27, 2023 Report Share Posted February 27, 2023 27 minutes ago, Clinton said: 6z Euro Control Wait! What?!?! 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tStacsh Posted February 27, 2023 Report Share Posted February 27, 2023 10 minutes ago, MKEstorm said: Wait! What?!?! I really think the medium range has really struggle this year on models. Very active pattern this winter. Lot's of moving parts. Tough to nail down any track 4-7 days out. I'm punting on this storm until at least wednesday. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MKEstorm Posted February 27, 2023 Report Share Posted February 27, 2023 47 minutes ago, tStacsh said: I really think the medium range has really struggle this year on models. Very active pattern this winter. Lot's of moving parts. Tough to nail down any track 4-7 days out. I'm punting on this storm until at least wednesday. Well, I noticed something was weird when recent op runs of the Euro and GFS had this storm well to the south..whereas the GEFS and EPS were well north of the ops! So, I knew something had to give. We’ll see what transpires the next few days. But ya, probably not a good idea to get that invested yet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 27, 2023 Report Share Posted February 27, 2023 I've been watching the models, but this system has been so far south I never considered it to be of any concern to Iowans. Um... 12z GFS 3 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 27, 2023 Report Share Posted February 27, 2023 8 minutes ago, Hawkeye said: I've been watching the models, but this system has been so far south I never considered it to be of any concern to Iowans. Um... 12z GFS Starts out as a little mixed precip here as well before changing over. The SLP path is almost perfect for our neck of the woods. I wondered if we would see a shift NW considering how much further NW the ensembles were from the operational model. Both on the Euro and GFS. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tStacsh Posted February 27, 2023 Report Share Posted February 27, 2023 GEM moved way NW as well. The trend is definitely north. If we could average out the models right now this would be a Chicagoland special. long way to go. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 27, 2023 Report Share Posted February 27, 2023 24 minutes ago, Hawkeye said: I've been watching the models, but this system has been so far south I never considered it to be of any concern to Iowans. Um... 12z GFS Come on, can't I have this one? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 27, 2023 Report Share Posted February 27, 2023 Ukie joining the NW trend. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATW Posted February 27, 2023 Report Share Posted February 27, 2023 1 hour ago, Clinton said: 6z EPS looks pretty good The trend is north. Marginal temps. Not Impressed. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 27, 2023 Report Share Posted February 27, 2023 Wow, the GEFS went crazy. 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 27, 2023 Report Share Posted February 27, 2023 2 hours ago, Clinton said: 6z EPS looks pretty good I'm afraid this has eyes even farther north, esp with a phasing/deepening Low with no real artic HP to our north.. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted February 27, 2023 Report Share Posted February 27, 2023 I'll be in IA with my magnet out Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 27, 2023 Report Share Posted February 27, 2023 The southeast ridge is quite strong. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 27, 2023 Report Share Posted February 27, 2023 12z euro gonna go way NW compared to 0z Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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