Tom Posted February 27, 2023 Report Share Posted February 27, 2023 If your in Chicago area and points south, this is not a good trend...on the flip side, if your in the MKE area and points NW of N IL this is your friend... 4 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 27, 2023 Report Share Posted February 27, 2023 Euro jumped NW, but still well SE of the GFS and the ensembles. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iowawx Posted February 27, 2023 Report Share Posted February 27, 2023 Overall, the trend is looking pretty good for Eastern Iowa. Still a little ways out but NW trend is real and could be a nice storm around here. Local mets are not sold on this at all. Only a 20% chance of snow for Friday.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gimmesnow Posted February 27, 2023 Report Share Posted February 27, 2023 Dang I'm kind of reeling this one in here. I thought it was going way south. Been disappointed by these before, hope it doesn't go that way again. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 27, 2023 Report Share Posted February 27, 2023 This could be a problem for trees/powerlines wherever the snow band is. Likely to be a paste job with good winds. Also need to watch the ice potential. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 27, 2023 Report Share Posted February 27, 2023 12z EPS 1 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 27, 2023 Report Share Posted February 27, 2023 EPS way NW of the op still 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 27, 2023 Report Share Posted February 27, 2023 37 minutes ago, Hawkeye said: 12z EPS No guarantees but with the spread looking like that, may be more likely to see a nw shift. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted February 27, 2023 Report Share Posted February 27, 2023 2 hours ago, Hawkeye said: 12z EPS Big cluster of members near Hannibal likely bring the goods here. 1 Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 27, 2023 Report Share Posted February 27, 2023 NWS model blend looks a lot like the EPS and GEFS 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 27, 2023 Report Share Posted February 27, 2023 Best looking GEFS Mean I've had all season. Still plenty of time for things to go wrong. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 28, 2023 Report Share Posted February 28, 2023 ..and the beat goes on Notable NW trends not surprising. I figured we were done with any real storms here. Gonna ride my gut on that. Anyways, I noticed CPC wouldn't even commit to snow on this one today. Bad thermals have been the name of the game all season. 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 28, 2023 Report Share Posted February 28, 2023 12 minutes ago, jaster220 said: ..and the beat goes on Notable NW trends not surprising. I figured we were done with any real storms here. Gonna ride my gut on that. Anyways, I noticed CPC wouldn't even commit to snow on this one today. Bad thermals have been the name of the game all season. There's going to be an enormous amount of latent heat release with this. Can look at all that convection that's being progged. I wonder if that is having an affect on the thermal profiles north of the low. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 28, 2023 Report Share Posted February 28, 2023 35 minutes ago, Hoosier said: There's going to be an enormous amount of latent heat release with this. Can look at all that convection that's being progged. I wonder if that is having an affect on the thermal profiles north of the low. You're correct. Not sure if Ricky wrote on that yesterday, or where exactly I saw that same thing mentioned. We are getting active and wet, just what Nina's are known to give us. The "cold enough" always seems to be the wildcard, perhaps more so in this era than ever before. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 28, 2023 Report Share Posted February 28, 2023 15 minutes ago, jaster220 said: You're correct. Not sure if Ricky wrote on that yesterday, or where exactly I saw that same thing mentioned. We are getting active and wet, just what Nina's are known to give us. The "cold enough" always seems to be the wildcard, perhaps more so in this era than ever before. The snow band looks pretty gnarly. Good signals for a period of very heavy snow rates, perhaps on the order of 2" per hour. Definitely think blizzard conditions may be in play despite the wet nature of the snow. At the very least, a wind-driven wet snow with near-blizzard conditions. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 28, 2023 Report Share Posted February 28, 2023 9 minutes ago, Hoosier said: The snow band looks pretty gnarly. Good signals for a period of very heavy snow rates, perhaps on the order of 2" per hour. Definitely think blizzard conditions may be in play despite the wet nature of the snow. At the very least, a wind-driven wet snow with near-blizzard conditions. Might happen over your way sure, just have little to no confidence for DTW. Yesterday's grid icon was 34F and SNOW, today that's been down-graded to 36F and RN/SN. I'm hard-pressed to believe it comes back full circle. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 28, 2023 Report Share Posted February 28, 2023 2 minutes ago, jaster220 said: Might happen over your way sure, just have little to no confidence for DTW. Yesterday's grid icon was 34F and SNOW, today that's been down-graded to 36F and RN/SN. I'm hard-pressed to believe it comes back full circle. The amount of ensemble members with nw solutions has me a bit concerned. Gonna be pretty bummed if the heavy snow band misses to my north. It's gonna rip wherever that sets up though. Just too bad this isn't a colder storm. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 28, 2023 Report Share Posted February 28, 2023 00z NAM is a little pumped. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 28, 2023 Report Share Posted February 28, 2023 24 minutes ago, Hoosier said: 00z NAM is a little pumped. Yowza, way nw. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 28, 2023 Report Share Posted February 28, 2023 From RC, the Chicago NWS met on the other forum... "Resist the urge to look at the NAM for now. The parent 500 mb wave is completely off its domain, so the initialization over the Pacific is from the 18z GFS. Even when the main shortwave is on its domain, the NAM is still prone to wonkiness." 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 28, 2023 Report Share Posted February 28, 2023 2 minutes ago, Hawkeye said: Yowza, way nw. At the risk of overanalyzing an 84 hour NAM panel, the high sitting in that location would be pretty concerning for ice more or less around I-80. And we saw last time that you can accrete fairly efficiently in marginal temps when it's windy and dewpoints are below freezing (especially if they're in the 20s). 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 28, 2023 Report Share Posted February 28, 2023 The ICON has had major nw shifts each run over the last 24 hours. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted February 28, 2023 Report Share Posted February 28, 2023 For what it's worth all the models had freezing rain and heavy wet slop up here today. Ended up no rain and the snow was powder. Couldn't even make a snowball. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 28, 2023 Report Share Posted February 28, 2023 18z Euro Mean was juiced up and further NW Control 18z Euro at hr 90 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted February 28, 2023 Report Share Posted February 28, 2023 To me this looks like a typical march snowstorm. Very wet. Powerful. Then transfers to the coast. But someone is going to get nailed. I expect the heavy snow to move even more NW of my area. I’m currently bullseyed. Yesterday this was in Ohio. Tomorrow it will be a NMI special with a slop to rain here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OttumwaSnomow Posted February 28, 2023 Report Share Posted February 28, 2023 Nam way NW! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 28, 2023 Report Share Posted February 28, 2023 The GEFS mean took a significant shift SE. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 28, 2023 Report Share Posted February 28, 2023 The Canadian and UK have virtually dropped the storm. At least the snow part of it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 28, 2023 Report Share Posted February 28, 2023 6 minutes ago, bud2380 said: The Canadian and UK have virtually dropped the storm. At least the snow part of it. UKMET hits jaster good though. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 28, 2023 Report Share Posted February 28, 2023 Euro crushes Chicago up to Milwaukee Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 28, 2023 Report Share Posted February 28, 2023 Can someone post a Euro freezing rain map? From my quick flipping through the precip type panels it looked like mostly snow or sleet and not much freezing rain anywhere. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 28, 2023 Report Share Posted February 28, 2023 3 minutes ago, Money said: Euro crushes Chicago up to Milwaukee This might be as far nw as it can go. The upper low is unable to cut northeast until it's a bit too late for most of Iowa. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 28, 2023 Report Share Posted February 28, 2023 Just your casual easterly 850 mb winds of 70 kts. Not sure if mixing is to that level though. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 28, 2023 Report Share Posted February 28, 2023 3 minutes ago, Hawkeye said: This might be as far nw as it can go. The upper low is unable to cut northeast until it's a bit too late for most of Iowa. Never underestimate the famous NW trend. Can definitely go even farther yet and a lot of the ensembles show that Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 28, 2023 Report Share Posted February 28, 2023 6z NAM is just all-around ridiculous. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MKEstorm Posted February 28, 2023 Report Share Posted February 28, 2023 17 minutes ago, Hoosier said: 6z NAM is just all-around ridiculous. 6z NAM Destroys Eastern Iowa Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 28, 2023 Report Share Posted February 28, 2023 Great write up from EAX this morning. They seem to be impressed with this storm. - Another powerful storm system will affect the region Thursday night through Friday. The strong western trough will deepen as it moves across the Four- Corners region. Through the Plains, the front that moved through earlier, will be reinforced with cooler air and stall to our south. So temperatures will be cooler still on Thursday with highs generally in the 40s. Focus then turns to the powerful shortwave moving into the Plains late Thursday. Models show this wave taking on a negative tilt to our south-southwest and then lifting northeastward, tracking over southern MO. To put this system into some climate perspective, the NAEFS Standardized Anomaly plots show the 700mb, 850mb, and surface low are four to 5 standard devations below normal. Precipitable water values are three to four standard deviations above normal. The ECMWF extreme forecast index shows potential for snow across the forecast area and the shift of tails is positive indicating that at least 10% of its ensemble members are above the 99th percentile for snow. Deterministic models also show a powerful system with a surface low that could have a lower pressure than the system that just moved across northeastern KS and northwestern MO last night, just south of the area at 12Z Friday. Models also show a strongly diffluent upper-level flow regime over the area and a large trowal and deformation area to north and northwest of the low. Not surprisingly, cross-sections show very strong and deep omega that would be through the dendritic growth region. The parameter that this storm appears to be lacking is cold air. Given the extremely strong dynamics and the intense upward vertical motions as a result, it`s quite possible we`ll see dynamic cooling with the system producing its own cold air and cooling the column more than what can be depicted currently. This is similar to a storm we had several weeks ago that dumped heavy, wet snow on the Northland and into northwestern MO. Current forecast shows a swath several inches of snow from east central KS through northeastern MO and if the track and intensity remains consistent, we could see snow totals increase. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 28, 2023 Report Share Posted February 28, 2023 0z EPS 500mb track coming out of the 4 corners and cutting up towards the Lower Lakes is one I've been yearning for all season long. Could this FINALLY be the one? I know there will be winners and losers in this track. Can't win 'em all but I'd be lying to you if I'm not getting a tad excited about a Daytime Snowstorm. Too bad temps look marginal in the low 30's and kinda wish it was colder but beggers can't be choosers in this season. 0z Euro...the snow ratios must be closer to 8:1 or thereabouts... 0z Euro Control... 0z EPS snow mean...that is an impressive snow mean from KC/E IA/N IL/ S WI... 0z GEFS... 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 28, 2023 Report Share Posted February 28, 2023 6z icon joined the NW side of things 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 28, 2023 Report Share Posted February 28, 2023 Oh, just another 18-24" of snow for Flagstaff, AZ...chump change! 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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