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March 1st-4th...Major Winterstorm Potential


Niko

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..and the beat goes on

Notable NW trends not surprising. I figured we were done with any real storms here. Gonna ride my gut on that. Anyways, I noticed CPC wouldn't even commit to snow on this one today. Bad thermals have been the name of the game all season.

image.png.b872d0af4fea39b0d5696c011024b3e4.png

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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12 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

..and the beat goes on

Notable NW trends not surprising. I figured we were done with any real storms here. Gonna ride my gut on that. Anyways, I noticed CPC wouldn't even commit to snow on this one today. Bad thermals have been the name of the game all season.

image.png.b872d0af4fea39b0d5696c011024b3e4.png

There's going to be an enormous amount of latent heat release with this.  Can look at all that convection that's being progged.  I wonder if that is having an affect on the thermal profiles north of the low.

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35 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

There's going to be an enormous amount of latent heat release with this.  Can look at all that convection that's being progged.  I wonder if that is having an affect on the thermal profiles north of the low.

You're correct. Not sure if Ricky wrote on that yesterday, or where exactly I saw that same thing mentioned. We are getting active and wet, just what Nina's are known to give us. The "cold enough" always seems to be the wildcard, perhaps more so in this era than ever before. 

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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15 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

You're correct. Not sure if Ricky wrote on that yesterday, or where exactly I saw that same thing mentioned. We are getting active and wet, just what Nina's are known to give us. The "cold enough" always seems to be the wildcard, perhaps more so in this era than ever before. 

The snow band looks pretty gnarly.  Good signals for a period of very heavy snow rates, perhaps on the order of 2" per hour.  Definitely think blizzard conditions may be in play despite the wet nature of the snow.  At the very least, a wind-driven wet snow with near-blizzard conditions.

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9 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

The snow band looks pretty gnarly.  Good signals for a period of very heavy snow rates, perhaps on the order of 2" per hour.  Definitely think blizzard conditions may be in play despite the wet nature of the snow.  At the very least, a wind-driven wet snow with near-blizzard conditions.

Might happen over your way sure, just have little to no confidence for DTW. Yesterday's grid icon was 34F and SNOW, today that's been down-graded to 36F and RN/SN. I'm hard-pressed to believe it comes back full circle. 

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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2 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Might happen over your way sure, just have little to no confidence for DTW. Yesterday's grid icon was 34F and SNOW, today that's been down-graded to 36F and RN/SN. I'm hard-pressed to believe it comes back full circle. 

The amount of ensemble members with nw solutions has me a bit concerned.  Gonna be pretty bummed if the heavy snow band misses to my north.  It's gonna rip wherever that sets up though.  Just too bad this isn't a colder storm.

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From RC, the Chicago NWS met on the other forum...

"Resist the urge to look at the NAM for now. The parent 500 mb wave is completely off its domain, so the initialization over the Pacific is from the 18z GFS. Even when the main shortwave is on its domain, the NAM is still prone to wonkiness."

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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2 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

Yowza, way nw.

image.thumb.png.0ec322337531c7dfec4c575c1f9a97b2.png

At the risk of overanalyzing an 84 hour NAM panel, the high sitting in that location would be pretty concerning for ice more or less around I-80.  And we saw last time that you can accrete fairly efficiently in marginal temps when it's windy and dewpoints are below freezing (especially if they're in the 20s).

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To me this looks like a typical march snowstorm.   Very wet.  Powerful.   Then transfers to the coast.  But someone is going to get nailed.   I expect the heavy snow to move even more NW of my area.  I’m currently bullseyed.  Yesterday this was in Ohio.   Tomorrow it will be a NMI special with a slop to rain here.  

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3 minutes ago, Money said:

Euro crushes Chicago up to Milwaukee 

This might be as far nw as it can go.  The upper low is unable to cut northeast until it's a bit too late for most of Iowa.

image.thumb.png.854e06b5c1ae3c3c6467b16feaf780fe.png

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Great write up from EAX this morning.  They seem to be impressed with this storm.

- Another powerful storm system will affect the region Thursday
night through Friday.
The strong western trough will deepen as it moves across the Four-
Corners region. Through the Plains, the front that moved through
earlier, will be reinforced with cooler air and stall to our south.
So temperatures will be cooler still on Thursday with highs
generally in the 40s. Focus then turns to the powerful shortwave
moving into the Plains late Thursday. Models show this wave taking
on a negative tilt to our south-southwest and then lifting
northeastward, tracking over southern MO. To put this system into
some climate perspective, the NAEFS Standardized Anomaly plots
show the 700mb, 850mb, and surface low are four to 5 standard
devations below normal. Precipitable water values are three to
four standard deviations above normal. The ECMWF extreme forecast
index shows potential for snow across the forecast area and the
shift of tails is positive indicating that at least 10% of its
ensemble members are above the 99th percentile for snow.
Deterministic models also show a powerful system with a surface
low that could have a lower pressure than the system that just
moved across northeastern KS and northwestern MO last night, just
south of the area at 12Z Friday. Models also show a strongly
diffluent upper-level flow regime over the area and a large trowal
and deformation area to north and northwest of the low. Not
surprisingly, cross-sections show very strong and deep omega that
would be through the dendritic growth region. The parameter that
this storm appears to be lacking is cold air. Given the extremely
strong dynamics and the intense upward vertical motions as a
result, it`s quite possible we`ll see dynamic cooling with the
system producing its own cold air and cooling the column more than
what can be depicted currently. This is similar to a storm we had
several weeks ago that dumped heavy, wet snow on the Northland
and into northwestern MO. Current forecast shows a swath several
inches of snow from east central KS through northeastern MO and if
the track and intensity remains consistent, we could see snow
totals increase.

 

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0z EPS 500mb track coming out of the 4 corners and cutting up towards the Lower Lakes is one I've been yearning for all season long.  Could this FINALLY be the one?  I know there will be winners and losers in this track.  Can't win 'em all but I'd be lying to you if I'm not getting a tad excited about a Daytime Snowstorm.  Too bad temps look marginal in the low 30's and kinda wish it was colder but beggers can't be choosers in this season.

 

image.gif

 

0z Euro...the snow ratios must be closer to 8:1 or thereabouts...

1.png

 

0z Euro Control...

image.png

 

 

0z EPS snow mean...that is an impressive snow mean from KC/E IA/N IL/ S WI...

image.gif

 

0z GEFS...

sn10_acc-mean-imp.us_mw.png

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