Tom Posted February 28, 2023 Report Share Posted February 28, 2023 06z Euro...about as good as it can get for E IA/N IL and S WI...still snowing at HR 90... The "Windy City" would be living up to its name! 45-50 mph wind gusts on the lakeshore would be producing some wild wave action... 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 28, 2023 Report Share Posted February 28, 2023 SREF is also NW 2 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Black Hole Posted February 28, 2023 Report Share Posted February 28, 2023 For northeast Oklahoma we still have some forecast kinks to work out. Depending on the low track on Thursday, the severe risk could extend north to the Tulsa area such as with the NAM track. The more likely outcome is that the severe weather stays south of I-40. With that said, the trend has been north with that low, so it wouldn't take much more to put my area in play. Either way, heavy precipitation develops Thursday night into Friday morning. EPS mean is just over 2" of liquid, with a range from about 0.5 to 5". Could result in some river flooding in the heavier scenarios. Also still very borderline for snow here. Upper level temps and sustained heavy precip would normally mean snow, but there is a lot of wrap around warm advection which probably keeps us about 3-5F too warm. The NAM shows a switchover to snow on its latest run, as do maybe 20-30% of ensemble members, but of course that means 70-80% of ensemble members keep us all rain. 4 Quote Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2") Total Ice (0.2") Coldest Low: 1F Coldest High: 5F Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 28, 2023 Report Share Posted February 28, 2023 1 hour ago, Grizzcoat said: SREF is also NW This and the NAM seem way to high. NWS Hastings is mentioning maybe 1". That is a large disparity for something that is only a couple of days out. Don't get me wrong, I'd love for this and the NAM to verify. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MIKEKC Posted February 28, 2023 Report Share Posted February 28, 2023 Perfect track for KC, that has to be 2-3"/hr, COME ON!!! 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KTPmidMO Posted February 28, 2023 Report Share Posted February 28, 2023 Once again, the snow is going to just barely miss me and I'm probably going to end up all rain...*sigh*... Getting the right ingredients to come together for a good snow has been hard to come by here in central Missouri. This winter has been terrible.. I've either been missed just to my north or just to my south every time. My biggest snowfall this year has been 3.5 inches and the couple other storms have just been a 1 or 2 incher. Way below average for snowfall. Congratulations to all getting in on some good snow the past few weeks and hope you get hit good with this one as well. Im done with this winter, bring on spring... 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 28, 2023 Report Share Posted February 28, 2023 The NAM isn't digging the upper low as far south as other models. The Canadian is way south of the NAM. I would not buy into the NAM unless other models start shifting the upper low into the TX panhandle. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted February 28, 2023 Report Share Posted February 28, 2023 The long range NAM. Come on guys… 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 28, 2023 Report Share Posted February 28, 2023 13 minutes ago, winterfreak said: The long range NAM. Come on guys… We all take turns posting it when it shows what we want. Part of the experience 2 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mlgamer Posted February 28, 2023 Report Share Posted February 28, 2023 4 hours ago, Clinton said: Great write up from EAX this morning. They seem to be impressed with this storm. This storm also has also got the attention of the Topeka NWS but they are remaining cautious about it. Obviously, thermals are the big question along with the exact track. I doubt we get a big dump of snow here, but stranger things have happened. 1 Quote 23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tStacsh Posted February 28, 2023 Report Share Posted February 28, 2023 Several GFS runs in a row now that nails my backyard. Thankfully that means it won't happen. I'm ready for spring! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Icewoz Posted February 28, 2023 Report Share Posted February 28, 2023 9 minutes ago, tStacsh said: Several GFS runs in a row now that nails my backyard. Thankfully that means it won't happen. I'm ready for spring! You think like me!!! Lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gimmesnow Posted February 28, 2023 Report Share Posted February 28, 2023 15 minutes ago, tStacsh said: Several GFS runs in a row now that nails my backyard. Thankfully that means it won't happen. I'm ready for spring! Don't worry we are on the same line basically and it shows a win for me. I just got a smokin end of season deal on a new snowboard which means winter is over and I've cursed us all. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 28, 2023 Report Share Posted February 28, 2023 GEFS mean shifted NW again. Significantly NW of the Op run. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 28, 2023 Report Share Posted February 28, 2023 The UK went way nw and snowy yesterday morning, but has gone way back southeast and much less snowy last night and this morning. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 28, 2023 Report Share Posted February 28, 2023 12z GEFS remain lock steady....a bit more expansion of a significant (6"+) snowfall... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 28, 2023 Report Share Posted February 28, 2023 12z UKIE is narrower this run... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 28, 2023 Report Share Posted February 28, 2023 4 minutes ago, Tom said: 12z UKIE is narrower this run... Strange lack of snow on the western end. Would have to dig into the run to see why. Nonetheless, I'd take this in a heartbeat! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterSquall23 Posted February 28, 2023 Report Share Posted February 28, 2023 Just noticing a lot of these system have a big band of ice with them. People out in SE Michigan are still without power. Wondering what causes the ice band to be so big. ? Always enjoyed this forum as there is a lot of insight. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 28, 2023 Report Share Posted February 28, 2023 Euro looks like its shifting NW again. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 28, 2023 Report Share Posted February 28, 2023 Wow, the Euro clobbers eastern Iowa. 2 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 28, 2023 Report Share Posted February 28, 2023 2 minutes ago, bud2380 said: Euro looks like its shifting NW again. Big time Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 28, 2023 Report Share Posted February 28, 2023 Ratios are absolute garbage though. Literally 6 to 8:1. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 28, 2023 Report Share Posted February 28, 2023 10:1 vs Kuchera 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 28, 2023 Report Share Posted February 28, 2023 12Z Euro has 0.0" for me, the 12Z NAM has 17". Ok. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 28, 2023 Report Share Posted February 28, 2023 As far as ice, unclear what the temporal window will be for freezing rain... as in how long it will last at a given location. But there are model indications of 40+ mph gusts being possible while the freezing rain is occurring, so it would take very little to start causing tree/powerline issues with winds like that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 28, 2023 Report Share Posted February 28, 2023 12z EPS mean... the farthest nw EPS run so far. 3 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 28, 2023 Report Share Posted February 28, 2023 15Z SREF- 2 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 28, 2023 Report Share Posted February 28, 2023 Almost thought I saw the EPS map twice. Very similar placement of the main snow axis between the EPS and SREF. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 28, 2023 Report Share Posted February 28, 2023 12z Euro/EPS gives me pause...may be an overamped run, but who the heck knows...N MO/E IA up into S WI looking much better... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gimmesnow Posted February 28, 2023 Report Share Posted February 28, 2023 This time of the year is the most exciting to watch winter storms, because the models are always so whacked out and so liable to change. And it feels like you're getting something special. Storms in January that don't work out leave you feeling like you got ripped off but storms in March make you feel like you're getting a bonus, especially because you don't expect them to really happen. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 28, 2023 Report Share Posted February 28, 2023 8 minutes ago, Tom said: 12z Euro/EPS gives me pause...may be an overamped run, but who the heck knows...N MO/E IA up into S WI looking much better... Wish we had colder temps aloft to go along with the milder than average lake temps. Even a farther south track wouldn't help much because this airmass simply isn't that cold. Could be a wee bit of contribution from the lake but not a significant factor. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 28, 2023 Report Share Posted February 28, 2023 36 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said: 15Z SREF- Wow the SREF and EPS are remarkably similar. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 28, 2023 Report Share Posted February 28, 2023 NWS model blend is even further NW than the EPS. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 28, 2023 Report Share Posted February 28, 2023 18 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Wish we had colder temps aloft to go along with the milder than average lake temps. Even a farther south track wouldn't help much because this airmass simply isn't that cold. Could be a wee bit of contribution from the lake but not a significant factor. This has to be the 3rd storm of the season that had the right track and deep moisture but lack of any sustained cold out ahead of the storm. Just not our winter. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 28, 2023 Report Share Posted February 28, 2023 11 minutes ago, bud2380 said: NWS model blend is even further NW than the EPS. It seems like a blend of models would be southeast of this. This looks more like the nw edge of the model range. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gimmesnow Posted February 28, 2023 Report Share Posted February 28, 2023 7 minutes ago, Tom said: This has to be the 3rd storm of the season that had the right track and deep moisture but lack of any sustained cold out ahead of the storm. Just not our winter. Yeah, I feel like it's always been the 10:1 maps were low balls and the Kuchera was king. But this storm has Kuchera below 10:1. It's gonna be wet, heavy, and slow for snowboarding but at least it's not ice. Things were really messed up here with that ice storm. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 28, 2023 Report Share Posted February 28, 2023 NWS Hastings now saying snow likely after noon on Thursday with a couple inches at least. I will want to see tomorrow's models to see if this materializes. I see my local weather apps are really focusing on the middle of next week on for a prolonged period of snow. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 28, 2023 Report Share Posted February 28, 2023 18z NAM is at least a bit quicker on this run. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tStacsh Posted February 28, 2023 Report Share Posted February 28, 2023 Grand Rapids NWS is on board. "Cold advection on the back side of the departing low Wednesday night and Thursday sets the stage for Friday, which has seen the ECMWF trend strongly towards the GFS solution of a significant winter storm for our area. This one has the potential to cause disruption via heavy snow, winds and yes, unfortunately freezing rain in places that have already been battered the past couple weeks across southern Lower Michigan. The main time frame looks to be Friday into Friday night". 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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