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March 1st-4th...Major Winterstorm Potential


Niko

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For northeast Oklahoma we still have some forecast kinks to work out. Depending on the low track on Thursday, the severe risk could extend north to the Tulsa area such as with the NAM track. The more likely outcome is that the severe weather stays south of I-40. With that said, the trend has been north with that low, so it wouldn't take much more to put my area in play.

Either way, heavy precipitation develops Thursday night into Friday morning. EPS mean is just over 2" of liquid, with a range from about 0.5 to 5". Could result in some river flooding in the heavier scenarios. Also still very borderline for snow here. Upper level temps and sustained heavy precip would normally mean snow, but there is a lot of wrap around warm advection which probably keeps us about 3-5F too warm. The NAM shows a switchover to snow on its latest run, as do maybe 20-30% of ensemble members, but of course that means 70-80% of ensemble members keep us all rain.

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Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2")    Total Ice (0.2")     Coldest Low: 1F     Coldest High: 5F

Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12

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Once again, the snow is going to just barely miss me and I'm probably going to end up all rain...*sigh*... Getting the right ingredients to come together for a good snow has been hard to come by here in central Missouri. This winter has been terrible..   I've either been missed just to my north or just to my south every time. My biggest snowfall this year has been 3.5 inches and the couple other storms have just been a 1 or 2 incher. Way below average for snowfall.

Congratulations to all getting in on some good snow the past few weeks and hope you get hit good with this one as well.

Im done with this winter, bring on spring...

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The NAM isn't digging the upper low as far south as other models.  The Canadian is way south of the NAM.   I would not buy into the NAM unless other models start shifting the upper low into the TX panhandle.

models-2023022812-f063.500hv.conus.thumb.gif.fb4b9c11df5ca0b249b0e26e6041764b.gif

 

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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4 hours ago, Clinton said:

Great write up from EAX this morning.  They seem to be impressed with this storm.

This storm also has also got the attention of the Topeka NWS but they are remaining cautious about it. Obviously, thermals are the big question along with the exact track. I doubt we get a big dump of snow here, but stranger things have happened.

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23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24)

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15 minutes ago, tStacsh said:

Several GFS runs in a row now that nails my backyard.  Thankfully that means it won't happen.  I'm ready for spring!

Don't worry we are on the same line basically and it shows a win for me. I just got a smokin end of season deal on a new snowboard which means winter is over and I've cursed us all.

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The UK went way nw and snowy yesterday morning, but has gone way back southeast and much less snowy last night and this morning.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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As far as ice, unclear what the temporal window will be for freezing rain... as in how long it will last at a given location.  But there are model indications of 40+ mph gusts being possible while the freezing rain is occurring, so it would take very little to start causing tree/powerline issues with winds like that.

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This time of the year is the most exciting to watch winter storms, because the models are always so whacked out and so liable to change. And it feels like you're getting something special. Storms in January that don't work out leave you feeling like you got ripped off but storms in March make you feel like you're getting a bonus, especially because you don't expect them to really happen.

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8 minutes ago, Tom said:

12z Euro/EPS gives me pause...may be an overamped run, but who the heck knows...N MO/E IA up into S WI looking much better...

Wish we had colder temps aloft to go along with the milder than average lake temps.  Even a farther south track wouldn't help much because this airmass simply isn't that cold.  Could be a wee bit of contribution from the lake but not a significant factor.

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18 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Wish we had colder temps aloft to go along with the milder than average lake temps.  Even a farther south track wouldn't help much because this airmass simply isn't that cold.  Could be a wee bit of contribution from the lake but not a significant factor.

This has to be the 3rd storm of the season that had the right track and deep moisture but lack of any sustained cold out ahead of the storm.  Just not our winter.

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11 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

NWS model blend is even further NW than the EPS.

 

snowfall_acc-imp.us_mw.png

It seems like a blend of models would be southeast of this.  This looks more like the nw edge of the model range.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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7 minutes ago, Tom said:

This has to be the 3rd storm of the season that had the right track and deep moisture but lack of any sustained cold out ahead of the storm.  Just not our winter.

Yeah, I feel like it's always been the 10:1 maps were low balls and the Kuchera was king. But this storm has Kuchera below 10:1. It's gonna be wet, heavy, and slow for snowboarding but at least it's not ice. Things were really messed up here with that ice storm.

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Grand Rapids NWS is on board.  

"Cold advection on the back side of the departing low Wednesday night and Thursday sets the stage for Friday, which has seen the ECMWF trend strongly towards the GFS solution of a significant winter storm for our area. This one has the potential to cause disruption via heavy snow, winds and yes, unfortunately freezing rain in places that have already been battered the past couple weeks across southern Lower Michigan. The main time frame looks to be Friday into Friday night".

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