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March 1st-4th...Major Winterstorm Potential


Niko

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DTX is being low-key as well, which they should be. You don't want to "cry wolf" everytime something shows up that can be decided on with more information later. It seems every storm this year moving through the country has been portrayed as "the storm of the century" by the media for some reason.

Focus then turns towards the potential for a impactful winter storm
to affect the central Great Lakes. Confidence remains high for
widespread precipitation moving into southeast Michigan starting
Friday morning and continuing through Friday night/Saturday morning.
This system will emerge from a Pacific wave with the 500 mb trough
diving through the Four Corners region on Thursday with a 140 knot
upper jet rounding the base. Associated surface low pressure
strengthens as it lifts into IL and is forecast to track just south
of the CWA or right along the southern MI border. This places
southeast Michigan in a favorable spot for potentially several inches
of accumulating snow, which is supported by the ensemble spread.
However, the swath of highest snowfall totals still remains sensitive
to the exact track of the low. Thermal profiles also offer a chance
for a wintry mix during a portion of this event, but confidence in
ptypes is too low this far out to nail down exact details. Be sure to
stay up to date with the forecast as details become more clear on
this potential major winter storm.
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37 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

My current guess is the snow band will be mostly southeast of my area, closer to the GFS than Euro.

Our friend in Erie, IL may be in a decent spot.  Though even some differences in regards to when the snow band really gets cranking.

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47 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

My current guess is the snow band will be mostly southeast of my area, closer to the GFS than Euro.

Not buying into the Euro/Nam? The NW trend has been pretty consistent and most models, except the GFS are showing snow up here.

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1 minute ago, Iowawx said:

Not buying into the Euro/Nam? The NW trend has been pretty consistent and most models, except the GFS are showing snow up here.

Yeah, I'm thinking we've seen the nw trend and it will gradually fade back southeast as it approaches.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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This looks like another narrow-swath snow event.  Big warmth will be surging up from the south.  Dry air will be suppressing it from the north.  In between there will be a narrow band of concrete.  This is a bit similar to the storm a few weeks ago that dropped 6-9" from Dubuque to Madison.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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For those who read @Tom’s post about ORD having 17.8”, you also have to realize how large the Chicago metro area is. Also, I’m not saying they’re liars, butttt I think whoever works at ORD hypes their totals. Even with severe weather, you’ll see 60mph wind gusts recorded everywhere then ORD is like “97 MPH WINDGUST RECORDED BUILDINGS CURRENTLY FLYING”. It’s weird 😅 But i assume northern burbs have actually gotten closer to that total, whereas the southern side of town (hi it’s me), has gotten less than 10”. I think we’ve had maybe like, idk, 7” total? Lmao. It’s literally THE least snowy winter I can ever remember in Chicago.
 

OH. And not only that, we’ve gotten hit by every system. But I kid you not, since December, it has poured rain, and been 34 degrees EVERY. SINGLE. TIME. Like yes I hate shoveling and stuff but omg 34 and rain EVERYTIME? Barf. 

Anyways lol.  I think it’d be foolish for anyone in my immediate area to think we’ll get anything other than 33 and rain again. It’s insane how the cutoff of snow seems to be on the Wisconsin border every single storm for the past 3 months. I have a feeling the 18z EURO run that @Clinton posted above is the exact track for this storm. It would honestly be way more odd for it not to be at this point 😂

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46 minutes ago, Jaycee_CHI said:

For those who read @Tom’s post about ORD having 17.8”, you also have to realize how large the Chicago metro area is. Also, I’m not saying they’re liars, butttt I think whoever works at ORD hypes their totals. Even with severe weather, you’ll see 60mph wind gusts recorded everywhere then ORD is like “97 MPH WINDGUST RECORDED BUILDINGS CURRENTLY FLYING”. It’s weird 😅 But i assume northern burbs have actually gotten closer to that total, whereas the southern side of town (hi it’s me), has gotten less than 10”. I think we’ve had maybe like, idk, 7” total? Lmao. It’s literally THE least snowy winter I can ever remember in Chicago.
 

OH. And not only that, we’ve gotten hit by every system. But I kid you not, since December, it has poured rain, and been 34 degrees EVERY. SINGLE. TIME. Like yes I hate shoveling and stuff but omg 34 and rain EVERYTIME? Barf. 

Anyways lol.  I think it’d be foolish for anyone in my immediate area to think we’ll get anything other than 33 and rain again. It’s insane how the cutoff of snow seems to be on the Wisconsin border every single storm for the past 3 months. I have a feeling the 18z EURO run that @Clinton posted above is the exact track for this storm. It would honestly be way more odd for it not to be at this point 😂

Aside from the one storm, been same exact broken record here for DTW. 34F and rain (endless) 34F and snow (once)

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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6 hours ago, Icewoz said:

DTX is being low-key as well, which they should be. You don't want to "cry wolf" everytime something shows up that can be decided on with more information later. It seems every storm this year moving through the country has been portrayed as "the storm of the century" by the media for some reason.

Focus then turns towards the potential for a impactful winter storm
to affect the central Great Lakes. Confidence remains high for
widespread precipitation moving into southeast Michigan starting
Friday morning and continuing through Friday night/Saturday morning.
This system will emerge from a Pacific wave with the 500 mb trough
diving through the Four Corners region on Thursday with a 140 knot
upper jet rounding the base. Associated surface low pressure
strengthens as it lifts into IL and is forecast to track just south
of the CWA or right along the southern MI border. This places
southeast Michigan in a favorable spot for potentially several inches
of accumulating snow, which is supported by the ensemble spread.
However, the swath of highest snowfall totals still remains sensitive
to the exact track of the low. Thermal profiles also offer a chance
for a wintry mix during a portion of this event, but confidence in
ptypes is too low this far out to nail down exact details. Be sure to
stay up to date with the forecast as details become more clear on
this potential major winter storm.

I suppose they are thinking of their entire CWA, because that's way too bullish on winter impacts for their lowest 2 tiers.

WPC today saying snow N, something S for The Mitt.

 

23-02-28 CPC Hazards d3-7.png

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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1 hour ago, Jaycee_CHI said:

For those who read @Tom’s post about ORD having 17.8”, you also have to realize how large the Chicago metro area is. Also, I’m not saying they’re liars, butttt I think whoever works at ORD hypes their totals. Even with severe weather, you’ll see 60mph wind gusts recorded everywhere then ORD is like “97 MPH WINDGUST RECORDED BUILDINGS CURRENTLY FLYING”. It’s weird 😅 But i assume northern burbs have actually gotten closer to that total, whereas the southern side of town (hi it’s me), has gotten less than 10”. I think we’ve had maybe like, idk, 7” total? Lmao. It’s literally THE least snowy winter I can ever remember in Chicago.
 

OH. And not only that, we’ve gotten hit by every system. But I kid you not, since December, it has poured rain, and been 34 degrees EVERY. SINGLE. TIME. Like yes I hate shoveling and stuff but omg 34 and rain EVERYTIME? Barf. 

Anyways lol.  I think it’d be foolish for anyone in my immediate area to think we’ll get anything other than 33 and rain again. It’s insane how the cutoff of snow seems to be on the Wisconsin border every single storm for the past 3 months. I have a feeling the 18z EURO run that @Clinton posted above is the exact track for this storm. It would honestly be way more odd for it not to be at this point 😂

I'm in low end double digits for the season and we're not that far apart location-wise.  The 0.3", 0.8" type amounts add up, but are easily forgettable.

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The ICON made a big jump nw this morning, but has gone right back southeast this evening.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Lightfoot loses. Good riddance. Maybe I can enjoy Chicago again some day (sorry for OT post)

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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The 00z GFS is way southeast, waving bye-bye to Iowa.  I totally expected this.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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1 minute ago, Hawkeye said:

The 00z GFS is way southeast, waving bye-bye to Iowa.  I totally expected this.

I think you've been trolled "severely" more than once this winter. Sucky models are horrible!

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Just now, Hoosier said:

Gonna be wild if the heavy band ends up south of me.

NO WAY that happens

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Yesterday's storm was actually a pretty big deal for MI with some places scoring 8". Nothing on the ground here, but not too far north it looks like #realwinter. NMI depths looking better than any time since the holidays.

image.png.0a762d9617a427847fd3d98620da0e65.png

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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EAX still with no confidence in the forecast.

With the system Thursday night - Friday, there is an unusually high
amount of uncertainty due to 1) the variability in the track of the
low and 2) the thermal profile during heaviest precipitation.

Models are still varying the track of the upper low both
spatially and temporally. Looking at 12Z Friday, the deterministic
models vary the 500mb low from eastern OK, to central Arkansas,
to southwestern MO. This doesn`t seem like much but variance
greatly affects the thermal profile and the resultant
precipitation type and snow amounts. To illustrate this, comparing
forecast soundings for Kansas City between the NAM and the GFS
shows very different thermal profiles. The NAM, which is further
northwest with the upper low and the surface, shows a saturated
airmass from surface 30K ft with a nearly isothermal profile at or
just below freezing from the surface through about 6K ft. With
the intense lift shown by the NAM, this would be pouring heavy wet
snow over Kansas City as the atmosphere dynamically cools. The
GFS, in contrast, is warmer with several dry-layers through the
sounding. This would be some light rain with temperatures in the
middle 30s. So the best way to handle this uncertainty remains
looking at ensemble data. And even then there is high variance.
Ensemble members vary the track of the low from east central AR to
NW MO at 12Z Friday. SREF plume diagrams for Kansas city range
from several members with zero snow, to an extreme of 20+", and a
mean around 7". The key things the ensembles show is the strength
of the system. The NAEFS Standardized Anomaly plots continue to
indicate a very strong surface low pressure area 4-5 standard
deviations below normal over southeastern MO at 12Z. The 850mb and
700mb low also show a 4-5 standard deviation below normal over
southern MO with a 3-4 standard deviation below normal 500mb low
just slightly displaced northward from the lower-levels. ECMWF
extreme forecast index continues to point to snow amounts in the
60 to 80 percentile for reforecast period of 2002-2023. Meaning
the ECMWF ensembles are showing a good chance for snow compared
to the reforecast period. And the shift of tails remains positive
showing that at least 10% of its ensemble members are above the
99th percentile. With all that said, this remains a powerful storm
system moving across Missouri. It will have the potential, if the
track, timing, and temperatures cool enough via dynamic cooling,
to produce heavy wet snow for some of the area. It could also stay
too warm and we just get a cold rain. We`re talking about 1-2
degrees, not just at the surface, but through the lowest several
thousand feet of the atmosphere being the difference between a lot
of snow and no snow. These details can`t be worked out with much
confidence at this point this system is still 50+ hours out.
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8 hours ago, Jaycee_CHI said:

For those who read @Tom’s post about ORD having 17.8”, you also have to realize how large the Chicago metro area is. Also, I’m not saying they’re liars, butttt I think whoever works at ORD hypes their totals. Even with severe weather, you’ll see 60mph wind gusts recorded everywhere then ORD is like “97 MPH WINDGUST RECORDED BUILDINGS CURRENTLY FLYING”. It’s weird 😅 But i assume northern burbs have actually gotten closer to that total, whereas the southern side of town (hi it’s me), has gotten less than 10”. I think we’ve had maybe like, idk, 7” total? Lmao. It’s literally THE least snowy winter I can ever remember in Chicago.
 

OH. And not only that, we’ve gotten hit by every system. But I kid you not, since December, it has poured rain, and been 34 degrees EVERY. SINGLE. TIME. Like yes I hate shoveling and stuff but omg 34 and rain EVERYTIME? Barf. 

Anyways lol.  I think it’d be foolish for anyone in my immediate area to think we’ll get anything other than 33 and rain again. It’s insane how the cutoff of snow seems to be on the Wisconsin border every single storm for the past 3 months. I have a feeling the 18z EURO run that @Clinton posted above is the exact track for this storm. It would honestly be way more odd for it not to be at this point 😂

Sadly, your speaking the Truth here and the southern part of the Metro has had an abysmal MET Winter.  Here is a map of the region for climatological Winter and it clearly shows where the winners and losers have been.  Travel a 100 miles south and C IL into N MO has had Zilch!

2022-23 MET Winter Regional Seasonal Snow Totals.webp

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58 minutes ago, Tom said:

Sadly, your speaking the Truth here and the southern part of the Metro has had an abysmal MET Winter.  Here is a map of the region for climatological Winter and it clearly shows where the winners and losers have been.  Travel a 100 miles south and C IL into N MO has had Zilch!

2022-23 MET Winter Regional Seasonal Snow Totals.webp

Look at the hole near Cleveland !!!  That’s is crazy!  They really have not had a good winter this year. 

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