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March 1st-4th...Major Winterstorm Potential


Niko

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hrrr_ref_frzn_us_48.png

06z HRRR model has the look of the NAM. 

Looks like the EURO 06z did cave to the GFS and CMC, but, it has had many solutions for KC. NAM has been consistent, So...we'll see here in an hour or two if the 12Z NAM stays put. 12Z HRRR coming out now...

 

 

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ahhh the good ole fashion dry slot for semi. Not getting my hopes up

Quote
Last, the latest NAM runs and several members of the EPS show a real
concern for dry slotting in the afternoon which can either
significantly hamper qpf potential and/or can strip moisture out of
the dgz, drastically reducing snow chances in favor of rain/freezing
rain. This will have to be monitored for future updates and has bust
potential for qpf amounts.

 

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Hey @Niko, would it be okay if you push this back to March 1st because of Severe Weather ongoing from this system where @Andie is located? DFW had Quarter to Ping Pong Ball sized hail this morning.

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Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible!

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted

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Something's gotta give with the models.  Hawkeye pointed this out previously but if you look at the 500 mb maps, the NAM is still running farther north with the 500 mb low.  At 48 hours, it has that located near the area where MO/KS/OK/AR meet, while the GFS is down in central AR.

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12z Canadian... yikes.  This is the one model that never bought into the nw shift.

image.thumb.png.b48fe6c0f9297b3c226c38033772165d.png

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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8 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

12z Canadian... yikes.  This is the one model that never bought into the nw shift.

image.thumb.png.b48fe6c0f9297b3c226c38033772165d.png

Wow.  Seems over the top (or under in this case lol) but still a lot of uncertainty with this storm.  The models struggling with thermal profiles like this reminds me more of an April storm but here we are in the beginning of March.

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3 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

Man models have just sucked this season.  I mean so late in the game to be changing this dramatically is unreal.  And the ensembles really blew this storm.  

I think we see the Euro and NAM cave the next run or 2.  SMI might be the only area that gets anything out of this storm winter weather wise.  

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9 minutes ago, tStacsh said:

I think we see the Euro and NAM cave the next run or 2.  SMI might be the only area that gets anything out of this storm winter weather wise.  

The NAM literally means nothing to me, LOL.  It's so bad.  The Euro did surprise me though, especially the EPS, it looks like the 6z Euro already caved a lot, so I expect the 12z run to be a total cave.  Honestly I don't even want snow, so I'm not really upset, but it's still fun to watch it fall, so I wouldn't turn it down.  I'm more in disbelief at how bad the Euro did with this one.  

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  • Tom changed the title to March 1st-4th...Major Winterstorm Potential
1 hour ago, Iceresistance said:

Hey @Niko, would it be okay if you push this back to March 1st because of Severe Weather ongoing from this system where @Andie is located? DFW had Quarter to Ping Pong Ball sized hail this morning.

Done...

On a side note, March Roaring in like a Lion for the Mtn's of AZ...

image.png

 

Live cam up in Snowbowl Ski Resort...

https://www.snowbowl.ski/the-mountain/weather-conditions-webcams/

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11 minutes ago, Tom said:

18z NAM's going big...

snku_acc-imp.us_mw.png

 

snku_acc-imp.us_mw.png

18z NAM and 3km NAM had a noticeable SW shift from 12z. Do you think that is correct and will that continue? Also, How is there such a difference between what the Euro/NAM show compared to the GFS/GEM? Euro/NAM show I big swath of snow in Missouri and GFS/GEM literally have nothing in Missouri. And we are the day before the storm!!! Its almost comical how different they are.

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11 minutes ago, Bumblin Bman09 said:

@Tom I am currently due to return back to ORD on Friday at 2pm.  I haven't adjusted my flight yet, however, I am considering moving my flight to Thursday PM or Friday AM.  You have any thoughts on my current status?  Thanks for any feedback.

I’d change it to tomorrow night if possible bc it’ll be pretty ugly by Noon Friday and likely delays all day on Friday.

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20 minutes ago, KTPmidMO said:

18z NAM and 3km NAM had a noticeable SW shift from 12z. Do you think that is correct and will that continue? Also, How is there such a difference between what the Euro/NAM show compared to the GFS/GEM? Euro/NAM show I big swath of snow in Missouri and GFS/GEM literally have nothing in Missouri. And we are the day before the storm!!! Its almost comical how different they are.

Now cast!  This is gonna be a difficult system to forecast off the modeling and it’ll be a situation where we need a “human” touch.  I figure if the 500mb vortex is tracking close to your area in N MO that you’ll switch over due to dynamical cooling aloft.  The last storm like this one produced 3-6” in the KC area that wasn’t forecast at all and it was a surprise snow.

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See anything awry?👀

😂

A94CDD3E-75F4-44DC-AF22-3D8AF1142F99.jpeg

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Hope we get some of this in SE Wisconsin. If it snows like crazy in Chicago and misses up here, all the Chicago people come up here to ski/snowboard thinking it just snowed and the hill will be amazing. Except it won't be amazing, it'll be terrible and they're far more likely to hurt themselves. Looks like that's what it's going to be, though. Too bad.

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15 minutes ago, Jaycee_CHI said:

Feels cool to look at models again, it’s been a minute!! 
 

I really hope this happens somehow, this looks like some insane snowfall rates, and if I can score some thunder snow I’ll be in heaven! 
 

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This the NAM?  Yeah would be nice but an outlier at this point.  

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Yeah so many models have this going south of Chicago with snow and hitting Detroit. Icon, Canadian, FV3, RGEM, HRDPS. Euro and NAM have to pull off a big upset for Chicago to see any snow, let alone SE Wisconsin. We are still roughly 3 days out but NAM has been blowing stuff this season pretty badly. Tho last time I said something like this I was horribly wrong so lol.

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