MIKEKC Posted March 1, 2023 Report Share Posted March 1, 2023 06z HRRR model has the look of the NAM. Looks like the EURO 06z did cave to the GFS and CMC, but, it has had many solutions for KC. NAM has been consistent, So...we'll see here in an hour or two if the 12Z NAM stays put. 12Z HRRR coming out now... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted March 1, 2023 Report Share Posted March 1, 2023 Wow. I can’t believe the Euro shifted this dramatically this late in the storm. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iowawx Posted March 1, 2023 Report Share Posted March 1, 2023 Any chance a northern shift puts Eastern Iowa back into the game? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tStacsh Posted March 1, 2023 Report Share Posted March 1, 2023 I would need the Euro to verify, but currently an outlier still with a more NW track. From a big snowstorm, to maybe a couple inches at most with the GFS. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mlgamer Posted March 1, 2023 Report Share Posted March 1, 2023 12z 12km NAM and 09z SREF both took big steps backwards for me. Not like it was a surprise or anything. Quote 23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uticasnow Posted March 1, 2023 Report Share Posted March 1, 2023 Can someone post expected snowfall amounts for southern Michigan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tStacsh Posted March 1, 2023 Report Share Posted March 1, 2023 @jaster220 Looking good right now for your area. NAM/EURO vs everyone else right now. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chances14 Posted March 1, 2023 Report Share Posted March 1, 2023 ahhh the good ole fashion dry slot for semi. Not getting my hopes up Quote Last, the latest NAM runs and several members of the EPS show a real concern for dry slotting in the afternoon which can either significantly hamper qpf potential and/or can strip moisture out of the dgz, drastically reducing snow chances in favor of rain/freezing rain. This will have to be monitored for future updates and has bust potential for qpf amounts. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted March 1, 2023 Report Share Posted March 1, 2023 Hey @Niko, would it be okay if you push this back to March 1st because of Severe Weather ongoing from this system where @Andie is located? DFW had Quarter to Ping Pong Ball sized hail this morning. 1 Quote Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible! All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Icewoz Posted March 1, 2023 Report Share Posted March 1, 2023 12 minutes ago, chances14 said: ahhh the good ole fashion dry slot for semi. Not getting my hopes up I'm with you. Last good storm I remember I think was 1978. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tStacsh Posted March 1, 2023 Report Share Posted March 1, 2023 1 hour ago, uticasnow said: Can someone post expected snowfall amounts for southern Michigan GFS holding steady for the more southern route. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 1, 2023 Report Share Posted March 1, 2023 Something's gotta give with the models. Hawkeye pointed this out previously but if you look at the 500 mb maps, the NAM is still running farther north with the 500 mb low. At 48 hours, it has that located near the area where MO/KS/OK/AR meet, while the GFS is down in central AR. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted March 1, 2023 Report Share Posted March 1, 2023 12z Canadian... yikes. This is the one model that never bought into the nw shift. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 1, 2023 Report Share Posted March 1, 2023 12z GEFS... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 1, 2023 Report Share Posted March 1, 2023 8 minutes ago, Hawkeye said: 12z Canadian... yikes. This is the one model that never bought into the nw shift. Wow. Seems over the top (or under in this case lol) but still a lot of uncertainty with this storm. The models struggling with thermal profiles like this reminds me more of an April storm but here we are in the beginning of March. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted March 1, 2023 Report Share Posted March 1, 2023 12z UK 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted March 1, 2023 Report Share Posted March 1, 2023 Man models have just sucked this season. I mean so late in the game to be changing this dramatically is unreal. And the ensembles really blew this storm. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tStacsh Posted March 1, 2023 Report Share Posted March 1, 2023 3 minutes ago, bud2380 said: Man models have just sucked this season. I mean so late in the game to be changing this dramatically is unreal. And the ensembles really blew this storm. I think we see the Euro and NAM cave the next run or 2. SMI might be the only area that gets anything out of this storm winter weather wise. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted March 1, 2023 Report Share Posted March 1, 2023 9 minutes ago, tStacsh said: I think we see the Euro and NAM cave the next run or 2. SMI might be the only area that gets anything out of this storm winter weather wise. The NAM literally means nothing to me, LOL. It's so bad. The Euro did surprise me though, especially the EPS, it looks like the 6z Euro already caved a lot, so I expect the 12z run to be a total cave. Honestly I don't even want snow, so I'm not really upset, but it's still fun to watch it fall, so I wouldn't turn it down. I'm more in disbelief at how bad the Euro did with this one. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 1, 2023 Report Share Posted March 1, 2023 1 hour ago, Iceresistance said: Hey @Niko, would it be okay if you push this back to March 1st because of Severe Weather ongoing from this system where @Andie is located? DFW had Quarter to Ping Pong Ball sized hail this morning. Done... On a side note, March Roaring in like a Lion for the Mtn's of AZ... Live cam up in Snowbowl Ski Resort... https://www.snowbowl.ski/the-mountain/weather-conditions-webcams/ 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 1, 2023 Report Share Posted March 1, 2023 This would be a pleasant surprise... 4 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brianc400 Posted March 1, 2023 Report Share Posted March 1, 2023 This is going to be a NowCast event. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 1, 2023 Report Share Posted March 1, 2023 1 minute ago, brianc400 said: This is going to be a NowCast event. 100% 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted March 1, 2023 Report Share Posted March 1, 2023 The king doesn’t waver. Still 100 miles apart from GFS on heaviest snow. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 1, 2023 Report Share Posted March 1, 2023 12z EPS... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 1, 2023 Report Share Posted March 1, 2023 12z Euro Control... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 1, 2023 Report Share Posted March 1, 2023 18z NAM's going big... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KTPmidMO Posted March 1, 2023 Report Share Posted March 1, 2023 16 minutes ago, Tom said: 12z Euro Control... Do you have access to all the Euro ensembles? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KTPmidMO Posted March 1, 2023 Report Share Posted March 1, 2023 11 minutes ago, Tom said: 18z NAM's going big... 18z NAM and 3km NAM had a noticeable SW shift from 12z. Do you think that is correct and will that continue? Also, How is there such a difference between what the Euro/NAM show compared to the GFS/GEM? Euro/NAM show I big swath of snow in Missouri and GFS/GEM literally have nothing in Missouri. And we are the day before the storm!!! Its almost comical how different they are. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bumblin Bman09 Posted March 1, 2023 Report Share Posted March 1, 2023 @Tom I am currently due to return back to ORD on Friday at 2pm. I haven't adjusted my flight yet, however, I am considering moving my flight to Thursday PM or Friday AM. You have any thoughts on my current status? Thanks for any feedback. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 1, 2023 Report Share Posted March 1, 2023 11 minutes ago, Bumblin Bman09 said: @Tom I am currently due to return back to ORD on Friday at 2pm. I haven't adjusted my flight yet, however, I am considering moving my flight to Thursday PM or Friday AM. You have any thoughts on my current status? Thanks for any feedback. I’d change it to tomorrow night if possible bc it’ll be pretty ugly by Noon Friday and likely delays all day on Friday. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 1, 2023 Report Share Posted March 1, 2023 20 minutes ago, KTPmidMO said: 18z NAM and 3km NAM had a noticeable SW shift from 12z. Do you think that is correct and will that continue? Also, How is there such a difference between what the Euro/NAM show compared to the GFS/GEM? Euro/NAM show I big swath of snow in Missouri and GFS/GEM literally have nothing in Missouri. And we are the day before the storm!!! Its almost comical how different they are. Now cast! This is gonna be a difficult system to forecast off the modeling and it’ll be a situation where we need a “human” touch. I figure if the 500mb vortex is tracking close to your area in N MO that you’ll switch over due to dynamical cooling aloft. The last storm like this one produced 3-6” in the KC area that wasn’t forecast at all and it was a surprise snow. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bumblin Bman09 Posted March 1, 2023 Report Share Posted March 1, 2023 @Tom Much appreciated Tom. Looks like I may have an issue getting a flight Thursday PM due to meeting schedule, however, I should be able to get on an early flight Friday AM. I think its crazy the N IL could get a decent size snowfall or 1". 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andie Posted March 1, 2023 Report Share Posted March 1, 2023 See anything awry? 1 2 Quote Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes. “If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.” Gen. Sheridan 1866 2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KTPmidMO Posted March 1, 2023 Report Share Posted March 1, 2023 21z RAP.. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yerf Posted March 1, 2023 Report Share Posted March 1, 2023 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gimmesnow Posted March 1, 2023 Report Share Posted March 1, 2023 Hope we get some of this in SE Wisconsin. If it snows like crazy in Chicago and misses up here, all the Chicago people come up here to ski/snowboard thinking it just snowed and the hill will be amazing. Except it won't be amazing, it'll be terrible and they're far more likely to hurt themselves. Looks like that's what it's going to be, though. Too bad. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaycee_CHI Posted March 1, 2023 Report Share Posted March 1, 2023 Feels cool to look at models again, it’s been a minute!! I really hope this happens somehow, this looks like some insane snowfall rates, and if I can score some thunder snow I’ll be in heaven! 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted March 1, 2023 Report Share Posted March 1, 2023 15 minutes ago, Jaycee_CHI said: Feels cool to look at models again, it’s been a minute!! I really hope this happens somehow, this looks like some insane snowfall rates, and if I can score some thunder snow I’ll be in heaven! This the NAM? Yeah would be nice but an outlier at this point. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gimmesnow Posted March 2, 2023 Report Share Posted March 2, 2023 Yeah so many models have this going south of Chicago with snow and hitting Detroit. Icon, Canadian, FV3, RGEM, HRDPS. Euro and NAM have to pull off a big upset for Chicago to see any snow, let alone SE Wisconsin. We are still roughly 3 days out but NAM has been blowing stuff this season pretty badly. Tho last time I said something like this I was horribly wrong so lol. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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