Clinton Posted March 2, 2023 Report Share Posted March 2, 2023 18z Euro warmer and further SE vs 12z. Very similar to the 18z GEFS. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 2, 2023 Report Share Posted March 2, 2023 45 minutes ago, Jaycee_CHI said: Feels cool to look at models again, it’s been a minute!! I really hope this happens somehow, this looks like some insane snowfall rates, and if I can score some thunder snow I’ll be in heaven! The IBM GRAF model is basically showing what the Euro is seeing. It is pretty solid at this range. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted March 2, 2023 Report Share Posted March 2, 2023 Fatties on fatties on fatties! 20230301_190255.mp4 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted March 2, 2023 Report Share Posted March 2, 2023 0z NAMs are not budging. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted March 2, 2023 Report Share Posted March 2, 2023 Models aren’t even close. Mostly with how far north the precip shield goes. I could see a major snowstorm with the euro/NAM or get a couple inches with the GFS icon. Or get shut out with the Canadian. Cray with just 36 hours to go 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted March 2, 2023 Report Share Posted March 2, 2023 2 hours ago, Madtown said: Fatties on fatties on fatties! 20230301_190255.mp4 58.83 MB · 0 downloads You keep them lights up year round? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted March 2, 2023 Report Share Posted March 2, 2023 nah. normally turn em off superbowl weekend, for some reason don't feel like it this year. take em down in May back up in Oct. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OttumwaSnomow Posted March 2, 2023 Report Share Posted March 2, 2023 Nam holds its ground for SE Iowa. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 2, 2023 Report Share Posted March 2, 2023 Despite the rather absurd model spread at this distance, growing more cautiously optimistic for a good hit here. And even with factoring in marginal temps, I do think that some double digit snowfall amounts are likely in the heavy band. Moisture availability is higher end for a snow event and dynamics are extremely impressive for heavy snow. I still believe that rates in the main snow band could be in excess of 2" per hour. Rapid accumulation of heavy, wet snow will make for challenging driving. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 2, 2023 Report Share Posted March 2, 2023 The 00z Euro drops 1.5" of precip here in 6 hours as virtually all snow. That is east coast-like, and not sure I've ever witnessed that before. 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted March 2, 2023 Report Share Posted March 2, 2023 Some big time storms for the Arklatex region today. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted March 2, 2023 Report Share Posted March 2, 2023 A true nowcast storm, some of us in western MO will likely see some accumulating snow. Here is EAXs take this morning. Models have trended into slightly better agreement with the track of this storm system. While the spread remains high, the low should track from north TX, into eastern OK/NW AR, southwestern MO and then central IL. This remains a very powerful storm system and the ECMWF extreme forecast index continues to indicate an unusual snow event is possible relative its model climate. And there remains a positive shift of tails indicating that at least 10% of the ECMWF ensemble members are forecasting an event greater than the 99th percentile of the model climate. But there are a couple things missing for this to produce heavy snow in our forecast area. First, we don`t have cold air in place. And second, there`s no advection of cold air into the system via a pronounced cold conveyor. So cooling with this system will come from its intense upward vertical motions dynamically cooling the atmosphere. And even then, temperatures in the most favorable models only cool the lowest portions of the atmosphere to near freezing. That is certainly enough to get accumulating heavy wet snow. If those models, like the NAM and the 00Z HRRR verify, parts of eastern KS and western MO will see swath of heavy snow. Given the uncertainty, have relied heavily again on ensembles and utilized the NBM extensively for temperatures, with some downward adjustments in northeastern to central MO where it looks like a well defined deformation band will move through. Have also bumped up mention of snow to a wetbulb temperature of 35-36 degrees. This gets an area of light accumulating snow that is fairly close to the ECMWF ensemble mean but still several inches less than that output. All that said, this is still a highly uncertain forecast given the possibility that some of the model extremes, in the deterministic and ensemble members, have a real possibility of happening. So while it looks like not much snow for the area, there is a chance for a swath of heavy snow in the forecast area. It`s just seeming more likely to be a cold rain at this time. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 2, 2023 Report Share Posted March 2, 2023 Waking up to a Winter Storm Watch with up to 8" of snow in the grid along with 1-2"/hr snowfall rates. Hope it happens but I'm sorta nervous riding the northern edge. @Jaycee_CHIand our Southern Metro members could be reeling in the Big Dog of the season. @Hoosier@indianajohnare looking great as they have been shut out pretty much all year. SW MI peeps look great as well. 0z Euro Control...Dang, down to 972mb in C IL...only if this system had arctic air to work along with its dynamics. This would have been a massive blizzard. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 2, 2023 Report Share Posted March 2, 2023 0z GEFS... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 2, 2023 Report Share Posted March 2, 2023 I just saw a radar loop of the SNOW that is falling literally right in our back yard in Fountain Hills, AZ! Incredibly low elevation snows are hitting the northern valley right now. I can't wait to see the pics later today from my family and share it with you. 6 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted March 2, 2023 Report Share Posted March 2, 2023 Nice overnight trends. Have a watch also. 6 plus inches. Mean values around 11” 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted March 2, 2023 Report Share Posted March 2, 2023 06Z Euro keeps going S -- good for Detroit- not so for CHI. 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted March 2, 2023 Report Share Posted March 2, 2023 Need a slight NW bump Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MIKEKC Posted March 2, 2023 Report Share Posted March 2, 2023 WOW! The EURO showed the storm hitting KC with rainfall and then snow no more then 30 hours ago, now, it may not even rain in KC. Now, the HRRR, which was showing the same yesterday, doesn't have a drop of rain and temps now hitting 55 degrees tomorrow. TOM....The HRRR has nothing for you... The GFS and CMC might have been the best the last 48 hours... Safe to say, the models have been down right horrible for this storm. One things for sure, We'll know by 10:00 pm tomorrow night what this storm did. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted March 2, 2023 Report Share Posted March 2, 2023 2 minutes ago, MIKEKC said: WOW! The EURO showed the storm hitting KC with rainfall and then snow no more then 30 hours ago, now, it may not even rain in KC. Now, the HRRR, which was showing the same yesterday, doesn't have a drop of rain and temps now hitting 55 degrees tomorrow. TOM....The HRRR has nothing for you... The GFS and CMC might have been the best the last 48 hours... Safe to say, the models have been down right horrible for this storm. One things for sure, We'll know by 10:00 pm tomorrow night what this storm did. Yeah I think they should’ve waited for afternoon here in GR for any watches. I have a watch for 6 inches or more and still could get shut out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MIKEKC Posted March 2, 2023 Report Share Posted March 2, 2023 3 minutes ago, Stacsh said: Yeah I think they should’ve waited for afternoon here in GR for any watches. I have a watch for 6 inches or more and still could get shut out. Man, I saw that on the HRRR, it's almost totally SE of you...CRAZY!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MIKEKC Posted March 2, 2023 Report Share Posted March 2, 2023 Clinton, that silly NAM still has you in the game tomorrow. Just east of KC. Looks like on this run it will be a smash job on Chicago to Grand Rapids 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MIKEKC Posted March 2, 2023 Report Share Posted March 2, 2023 OMG TOM, is that 8"/hr on this new NAM run. IT could snow snowballs tomorrow afternoon for you. 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted March 2, 2023 Report Share Posted March 2, 2023 12z HRRR.... big southeast jump. Most models have been pretty bad with this storm. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tStacsh Posted March 2, 2023 Report Share Posted March 2, 2023 NAM is my only hope lol. GFS and EURO still give me a little snow. But you know what? It's march, if it misses I won't be too upset. But it would be nice to get a real snow storm that isn't lake effect this year. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted March 2, 2023 Report Share Posted March 2, 2023 12z FV3... Looking good for Detroit. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
indianajohn Posted March 2, 2023 Report Share Posted March 2, 2023 Canadian for the win?? never thought we would ever say that Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted March 2, 2023 Report Share Posted March 2, 2023 1 hour ago, MIKEKC said: OMG TOM, is that 8"/hr on this new NAM run. IT could snow snowballs tomorrow afternoon for you. Best model EVER!! If Only! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted March 2, 2023 Report Share Posted March 2, 2023 12z GFS Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted March 2, 2023 Report Share Posted March 2, 2023 @Andie is in the danger zone for the Supercells, it's going to be close though... 1 Quote Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible! All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 2, 2023 Report Share Posted March 2, 2023 2 hours ago, Hawkeye said: 12z HRRR.... big southeast jump. Most models have been pretty bad with this storm. How the heck does anybody forecast this thing? Though it kind of seems like the NAM is an outlier out of the available 12z runs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 2, 2023 Report Share Posted March 2, 2023 12z GEFS...might miss this one to my SE... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shakjen Posted March 2, 2023 Report Share Posted March 2, 2023 My forecast has 4-8. But the way this winter has gone it will be like the pre-Xmas “blizzard” in which we got 1” 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted March 2, 2023 Report Share Posted March 2, 2023 13 minutes ago, Tom said: 12z GEFS...might miss this one to my SE... A 980 mb storm missing to the south. Not too often you see this happen but it's a new climate we are living in. Just the way this winter has gone. Now we will head into Spring with cold and chilly rain all the way into April...can't wait. 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tStacsh Posted March 2, 2023 Report Share Posted March 2, 2023 Yeah, this went south of me after looking great. Congrats Detroit. I expect them to drop the watch tonight. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 2, 2023 Report Share Posted March 2, 2023 Yup, same here... 12z UKIE... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 2, 2023 Report Share Posted March 2, 2023 12z Euro has caved BIGLY towards the GFS...Watch's will be likely taken down for Chitown... 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted March 2, 2023 Report Share Posted March 2, 2023 It is really going to rip hard in southeast Michigan Friday afternoon/evening. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 2, 2023 Report Share Posted March 2, 2023 I expect to see vids and photos! @jaster220 @Niko @Hoosier @WinterSquall23 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormy Posted March 2, 2023 Report Share Posted March 2, 2023 1 minute ago, Tom said: 12z Euro has caved BIGLY towards the GFS...Watch's will be likely taken down for Chitown... At least it's now looking good for @jaster220 and @Niko and other Southern and Eastern Michigan peeps! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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