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March 1st-4th...Major Winterstorm Potential


Niko

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Nice summary from DTX (afd was a novel, lol). IF I end up with white rain, there's always the possibility of a little road trip to the good stuff 😁

However, confidence continues to increase in the following areas of
the forecast...

Snow will be the primary precipitation type for most of the region.
The highest confidence in rain mixing in is still south of the M-59
corridor. Where rain potentially occurs, snow totals will be reduced.

The Friday evening commute will be significantly impacted. The peak
of the event looks to occur between 4pm-10pm. Where the heaviest
snow occurs, peak hourly snowfall rates of 1-2+ inches per hour may
occur. Snow character will be heavy and wet in nature, and with
rapid accumulation rates, area roadways may become extremely
difficult for travel. Before the evening commute and with the
arrival of the precipitation shield, anticipate the potential for
rapidly deteoriating conditions as snow quickly overspreads the
region.

At precipitation onset, a brief period of freezing rain is still
possible, although trends continue to decrease in this possibility.
Any freezing rain accumulations will be limited to a light glaze.

Wind gusts of 35-45 mph will be possible Friday afternoon into
Friday night. The combination of falling snow and gusty winds will
lead to visibility restrictions. Isolated power outages will be
possible with heavy wet accumulating snow coupled with the gusty
conditions.

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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4 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Nice summary from DTX (afd was a novel, lol). IF I end up with white rain, there's always the possibility of a little road trip to the good stuff 😁

However, confidence continues to increase in the following areas of
the forecast...

Snow will be the primary precipitation type for most of the region.
The highest confidence in rain mixing in is still south of the M-59
corridor. Where rain potentially occurs, snow totals will be reduced.

The Friday evening commute will be significantly impacted. The peak
of the event looks to occur between 4pm-10pm. Where the heaviest
snow occurs, peak hourly snowfall rates of 1-2+ inches per hour may
occur. Snow character will be heavy and wet in nature, and with
rapid accumulation rates, area roadways may become extremely
difficult for travel. Before the evening commute and with the
arrival of the precipitation shield, anticipate the potential for
rapidly deteoriating conditions as snow quickly overspreads the
region.

At precipitation onset, a brief period of freezing rain is still
possible, although trends continue to decrease in this possibility.
Any freezing rain accumulations will be limited to a light glaze.

Wind gusts of 35-45 mph will be possible Friday afternoon into
Friday night. The combination of falling snow and gusty winds will
lead to visibility restrictions. Isolated power outages will be
possible with heavy wet accumulating snow coupled with the gusty
conditions.

I'm dreading the drive home tomorrow.  Right about when conditions look to be at their worst.

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1 hour ago, uticasnow said:

NWS DETROIT SNOWFALL PREDICTION

NSDETROIT.jpg

In light yellow for the 2nd time this season/year. For true impacts on roads and such, you want to be in the gold zone. This is reminding me of 4/2&3 '75 about a month earlier. That was very heavy wet snow, incredible rates, high winds. 18" where I was in eastern Genesee Cnty. 

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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2 minutes ago, Stacsh said:

You’ll be fine.  Marginal temps.  Wet roads 

Daylight, road crews with nothing to do all winter over eager. Internet data feeds and radar right in the road crew trucks. There's just no element of surprise anymore for any storm to gain an advantage via surprises. Prolly never see another road closer storm in my life time. 

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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7 minutes ago, Stacsh said:

You’ll be fine.  Marginal temps.  Wet roads 

I'll believe the wet roads when I see it.  Assuming very heavy rates pan out, that will overcome marginal temps and almost any degree of preceding warmth.  It was only in the upper 30s here today and cloudy.  I think tomorrow is one of those days where it would stick on roads even if it had been 70 today.

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1 hour ago, uticasnow said:

And so it begins.....

NWSWEATHER RADAR.jpg

This was a typical spring storm in ways but it was intense, tightly packed. For early March it’s a very strong start.  The sky was an ugly green.  I thought we were about to get very large hail or a tornado.  
Tornado sirens blared from all directions.  Pretty unnerving. 

I only got pea size hail but it was like a cloud burst. A whale of a lot of water in this tight packed storm. 
It seems to be gathering strength as it progresses east. Big start for spring. 

63*.  Rain till about 4am  High of 62 tomorrow.  
 

 

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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So, I log in and saw this:

Winter Storm Warning

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
1008 PM EST Thu Mar 2 2023

MIZ068>070-075-076-082-083-031115-
/O.UPG.KDTX.WS.A.0003.230303T1700Z-230304T0700Z/
/O.NEW.KDTX.WS.W.0004.230303T1800Z-230304T0900Z/
Livingston-Oakland-Macomb-Washtenaw-Wayne-Lenawee-Monroe-
Including the cities of Howell, Pontiac, Warren, Ann Arbor,
Detroit, Adrian, and Monroe
1008 PM EST Thu Mar 2 2023

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM FRIDAY TO 4 AM EST
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy wet snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 6 to
  10 inches likely. Winds gust as high as 35 to 45 mph.

* WHERE...Livingston, Oakland, Macomb, St Clair, Washtenaw,
  Wayne, Lenawee and Monroe Counties.

* WHEN...From Friday afternoon through late Friday night.

* IMPACTS...Plan on rapid deterioration of travel conditions
  during late afternoon. The hazardous conditions will impact the
  evening commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS... Very heavy snow rates, on the order of 1
  to 2+ inches per hour, are likely over a short three to six hour
  window. The peak rates occur Friday afternoon into Friday
  evening followed by moderate snow after midnight. Winds gusting
  to 45 mph may result in rapid reductions to visibility and
  isolated power outages will be possible from the cumulative
  impacts of accumulating wet snow and gusty winds.

 

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL
919 PM CST Thu Mar 2 2023

.UPDATE...
Issued at 918 PM CST Thu Mar 2 2023

A Winter Storm Warning is in effect along and southeast of
Interstate 57, and a Winter Weather Advisory for areas along
Interstate 55.

All eyes are on the developing and convectively invigorated low
pressure system along the AR/OK border ahead of a negatively-tilted
upper-level shortwave zooming through the Southern Plains.
Notwithstanding remaining modest differences in exact path and
magnitude of the surface low over the next 24 hours, incoming 00Z
guidance appears to be converging on a solution where the heaviest
axis of precipitation will develop near Interstate 57 tomorrow
afternoon and evening. (Note we are discounting the NAM/NAM3 which
continue to look much too amplified, likely due to an overreaction
to convection across the Southern Plains).

All the ingredients for intense snow rates appear to be lining up,
even if for a brief period of time, tomorrow afternoon and
evening. As the low approaches tomorrow morning, a band of rain
will spread northeastward into Illinois and Indiana. The rapid
deepening of the low toward minimum pressure of 975-979mb will
lead to intense low-level frontogenesis beneath the coupled
region of 120kt 250mb upper-level jets across the Lower Great
Lakes. In addition, high resolution model guidance continues to
advertise a region of steep mid-level lapse rates (>7 K/km) and
negative ePV overlapping the deep column of lift. Taken together,
an unusually deep and strong layer of mesoscale and synoptic lift
is expected to develop with upward motion magnitudes in excess
of 35ubar/sec. As a result, intense forcing and wet-bulb cooling
will force rain to snow within a narrow band with thundersnow and
intense snow rates of 2-3"/hr (if not higher). Even with marginal
surface temperatures near or just above freezing, the pure
magnitude of snow rates will overwhelm roads leading to difficult
to dangerous travel conditions during the Friday afternoon and
evening commute. The Winter Storm Warning area represents where
such a band of intense snow is most likely, and includes the I-
65/80/94 corridors through eastern Illinois and northwestern
Indiana.

Forecast guidance advertises strong frontogenesis extending as far
north as the Wisconsin state line, though remain steadfast in a
layer of dry air between 4-10kft feet chewing up all precipitation
before reaching the ground. Given the intense forcing, we opted to
aggressively forecast snow occurring a hair further north than
guidance would suggest including across the Chicago metropolitan
area overlapping the Friday afternoon and evening commutes. For
these reasons, we opted to issue a Winter Weather Advisory as far
north as central Cook/DuPage counties, though admittedly, how far
northwest saturation will occur remains an opportunity for
additional refinement. Observational trends will no doubt need to
be monitored overnight and tomorrow morning as the low approaches.


Updated products have been sent.

Borchardt

 

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I have spring fever, so I'm fine with this storm missing me.  However, I would love to experience the snow rates in the max band later Friday.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Ran a trend analysis on multiple models and noticed something interesting.  Generally speaking, the surface low has trended stronger and SOUTH.  That goes against how we typically associate these things like stronger=north and weaker=south.  Those relationships often hold, but it's not always true. 

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7 hours ago, Hoosier said:
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL
919 PM CST Thu Mar 2 2023

.UPDATE...
Issued at 918 PM CST Thu Mar 2 2023

A Winter Storm Warning is in effect along and southeast of
Interstate 57, and a Winter Weather Advisory for areas along
Interstate 55.

All eyes are on the developing and convectively invigorated low
pressure system along the AR/OK border ahead of a negatively-tilted
upper-level shortwave zooming through the Southern Plains.
Notwithstanding remaining modest differences in exact path and
magnitude of the surface low over the next 24 hours, incoming 00Z
guidance appears to be converging on a solution where the heaviest
axis of precipitation will develop near Interstate 57 tomorrow
afternoon and evening. (Note we are discounting the NAM/NAM3 which
continue to look much too amplified, likely due to an overreaction
to convection across the Southern Plains).

All the ingredients for intense snow rates appear to be lining up,
even if for a brief period of time, tomorrow afternoon and
evening. As the low approaches tomorrow morning, a band of rain
will spread northeastward into Illinois and Indiana. The rapid
deepening of the low toward minimum pressure of 975-979mb will
lead to intense low-level frontogenesis beneath the coupled
region of 120kt 250mb upper-level jets across the Lower Great
Lakes. In addition, high resolution model guidance continues to
advertise a region of steep mid-level lapse rates (>7 K/km) and
negative ePV overlapping the deep column of lift. Taken together,
an unusually deep and strong layer of mesoscale and synoptic lift
is expected to develop with upward motion magnitudes in excess
of 35ubar/sec. As a result, intense forcing and wet-bulb cooling
will force rain to snow within a narrow band with thundersnow and
intense snow rates of 2-3"/hr (if not higher). Even with marginal
surface temperatures near or just above freezing, the pure
magnitude of snow rates will overwhelm roads leading to difficult
to dangerous travel conditions during the Friday afternoon and
evening commute. The Winter Storm Warning area represents where
such a band of intense snow is most likely, and includes the I-
65/80/94 corridors through eastern Illinois and northwestern
Indiana.

Forecast guidance advertises strong frontogenesis extending as far
north as the Wisconsin state line, though remain steadfast in a
layer of dry air between 4-10kft feet chewing up all precipitation
before reaching the ground. Given the intense forcing, we opted to
aggressively forecast snow occurring a hair further north than
guidance would suggest including across the Chicago metropolitan
area overlapping the Friday afternoon and evening commutes. For
these reasons, we opted to issue a Winter Weather Advisory as far
north as central Cook/DuPage counties, though admittedly, how far
northwest saturation will occur remains an opportunity for
additional refinement. Observational trends will no doubt need to
be monitored overnight and tomorrow morning as the low approaches.


Updated products have been sent.

Borchardt

 

Wow, I haven't read a write-up like that in a while...just getting on the comp and combing through the data.  Looks like your area right up through S/SE MI is reeling in a late season Big Dog.  #thundersnow. Congrats!

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Sheesh, I haven't seen LOT going hard on the CRIPPLING potential and Thundersnow for NW IN peeps... @indianajohn @Hoosier

Quote
000
FXUS63 KLOT 031144
AFDLOT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL
544 AM CST Fri Mar 3 2023

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 345 AM CST Fri Mar 3 2023

Through Saturday...

Key Messages:

* Due to the combination of high snowfall rates and wind gusts
  over 45 mph, concerns are increasing that dangerous to
  potentially crippling travel conditions develop this afternoon
  for areas east of I-57 (Winter Storm Warning)

* Sharp northwest cut-off of snowfall amounts and winter impacts
  with the southern Chicago metro right along the gradient in
  snowfall totals

* Confidence in the west and northwest extent of snowfall remains
  low and amounts could still overperform in the Winter Weather
  Advisory areas

* Mesoscale feature could bring period of gusts to near 60 mph
  during the afternoon and accordingly exacerbate blizzard
  conditions and power outages (low confidence)

* Combined liquid from snow and rain could exceed 2 inches and
  result in ponding in poor drainage areas and river rises
  generally southeast of a Pontiac, IL to Gary, IN line

 

 

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Is a surprise Blizzard Upgrade coming in the late morning package?

 

Quote
With a deep surface low comes strong surface winds due to the
tightening surface pressure gradient. Confidence is high in seeing
frequent wind gusts in excess of 45 mph along and southeast of I-57.
With these winds in mind, blizzard-like conditions cannot be ruled
out but confidence in a longer duration and greater coverage of
these conditions preclude an upgrade with this forecast package.
Will note that hi-res guidance, and in particular the HRRR, is
trying to resolve a mesoscale feature (possible gravity wave?) with
a period of winds gusting to near 60mph this afternoon.
Confidence in winds of this magnitude actually occurring is low
though it will be something to monitor very closely as it would
ramp up impacts a couple notches, including exacerbating
blizzard-like conditions.

 

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Ya know, the NAM was not too bad after all for KC. The storm is here this morning and it has been raining really good. I'm at 35 degrees. Closing in on .60 already, with what appears to be several more hours to go. The NAM was consistent with the farthest west track. The only thing the NAM misread, the thermals.....yes, kind of a big deal. But, if you know enough about March weather, you know how hard it is to get enough cold air for these storms and you knew it was going to be close.

The storm we had several weeks ago in KC, 3-5" across the city, was almost identical to this storm. The NAM was aggressive with that one while others weren't. 

Interested in seeing what the storm does later today off to my NE. 

 

 

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6 minutes ago, indianajohn said:

With the lack of cold air to work with this was bound to disappoint a lot of us.

Yeah, I mean I don't think that the heart of the band will have a lot of trouble cooling off sufficiently for heavy snow accumulations, but our area is getting kind of fringey as far as heavy precip.  We'll see what happens though.

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@Sparky, here are some photos of the surrounding mountain ranges in Fountain Hills.  I can't believe it snowed on the McDowell Mtn's that border Scottsdale and Fountain Hills.  It's the last photo with the towers on top of the mountain.  This is pretty neat to see.

 

DFF2603D-A948-418D-94B3-5E1700040A8A.jpeg

D4C8F915-D0F5-410A-9E3B-89979803ADC0.jpeg

B64D71F0-6B44-4CE0-8544-9946A684F5CF.jpeg

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For DTW... Metro will reside along the expect rain/snow line through
much of this event. This adds a layer of complexity as to how
extensive the impacts from heavy snow will be. Given some degree of
trends toward a colder thermal profile, the TAF will remain more
heavy handed on the snowfall aspect of this system. This may
potentially support snowfall rates over an inch per hour at times.
The more meaningful snowfall is forecast to arrive at metro between 18
and 19Z.

 

I know what the models want to deliver here, and call me a skeptic, but I will have to see this to believe it wrt all the +SN and winds. We'll see. Good luck to all my fellow SMI Peeps!

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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40 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Yeah, I mean I don't think that the heart of the band will have a lot of trouble cooling off sufficiently for heavy snow accumulations, but our area is getting kind of fringey as far as heavy precip.  We'll see what happens though.

Everyone west of me including yby has looked golden at one point in the last 3-4 days. Now it's even slipping through your fingers?? I've really struggled to embrace this for that very reason, not to mention I had moved on from winter, lol. Currently nothing happening here yet.

Tab1FileL.png?07ac1426205cd914f2932bbcd4b9f576

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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38 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Everyone west of me including yby has looked golden at one point in the last 3-4 days. Now it's even slipping through your fingers?? I've really struggled to embrace this for that very reason, not to mention I had moved on from winter, lol. Currently nothing happening here yet.

Tab1FileL.png?07ac1426205cd914f2932bbcd4b9f576

Good band of precip here now but sharp cutoff not far to my north.  Need it to cool off more.

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Really coming down here now.  Huge flakes... almost like mini snowbombs falling from the sky.  Given radar appearance, I'm getting a bit more optimistic again.

Very windy in central IL with gusts near 70 mph, so those models with high gusts were onto something.

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