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March 1st-4th...Major Winterstorm Potential

Niko

By Niko
in East of the Rockies

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Tom
Tom

I just saw a radar loop of the SNOW that is falling literally right in our back yard in Fountain Hills, AZ!  Incredibly low elevation snows are hitting the northern valley right now.  I can't wait to

Hoosier
Hoosier

Really coming down here now.  Huge flakes... almost like mini snowbombs falling from the sky.  Given radar appearance, I'm getting a bit more optimistic again. Very windy in central IL with gusts

WinterSquall23
WinterSquall23

Pics as promised.  10.4 inches unofficial reading.  Top event of the year.  Real hoping for Chicago on the next one. Snow is ver y heavy, helped some of my neighbors out with our two-stage blower. Som

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

Posted
Posted
45 minutes ago, Jaycee_CHI said:

Feels cool to look at models again, it’s been a minute!! 
 

I really hope this happens somehow, this looks like some insane snowfall rates, and if I can score some thunder snow I’ll be in heaven! 
 

43187FE5-F80A-4CB9-97E5-6AE8CD2C9BD4.thumb.jpeg.08e1addc7d0b223917b086bc0f39217a.jpeg

The IBM GRAF model is basically showing what the Euro is seeing.  It is pretty solid at this range.  

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Stacsh Rising Star

Stacsh

Posted
Posted

Models aren’t even close.  Mostly with how far north the precip shield goes.  I could see a major snowstorm with the euro/NAM or get a couple inches with the GFS icon.  Or get shut out with the Canadian.   Cray with just 36 hours to go 

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Hoosier Mentor

Hoosier

Posted
Posted

Despite the rather absurd model spread at this distance, growing more cautiously optimistic for a good hit here.  And even with factoring in marginal temps, I do think that some double digit snowfall amounts are likely in the heavy band.  Moisture availability is higher end for a snow event and dynamics are extremely impressive for heavy snow.  I still believe that rates in the main snow band could be in excess of 2" per hour.  Rapid accumulation of heavy, wet snow will make for challenging driving.

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Clinton Grand Master

Clinton

Posted
Posted

A true nowcast storm, some of us in western MO will likely see some accumulating snow.  Here is EAXs take this morning. 

Models have trended into slightly better agreement with the track of
this storm system. While the spread remains high, the low should
track from north TX, into eastern OK/NW AR, southwestern MO and then
central IL. This remains a very powerful storm system and the ECMWF
extreme forecast index continues to indicate an unusual snow event
is possible relative its model climate. And there remains a
positive shift of tails indicating that at least 10% of the ECMWF
ensemble members are forecasting an event greater than the 99th
percentile of the model climate. But there are a couple things
missing for this to produce heavy snow in our forecast area.
First, we don`t have cold air in place. And second, there`s no
advection of cold air into the system via a pronounced cold
conveyor. So cooling with this system will come from its intense
upward vertical motions dynamically cooling the atmosphere. And
even then, temperatures in the most favorable models only cool the
lowest portions of the atmosphere to near freezing. That is
certainly enough to get accumulating heavy wet snow. If those
models, like the NAM and the 00Z HRRR verify, parts of eastern KS
and western MO will see swath of heavy snow. Given the
uncertainty, have relied heavily again on ensembles and utilized
the NBM extensively for temperatures, with some downward
adjustments in northeastern to central MO where it looks like a
well defined deformation band will move through. Have also bumped
up mention of snow to a wetbulb temperature of 35-36 degrees.
This gets an area of light accumulating snow that is fairly close
to the ECMWF ensemble mean but still several inches less than that
output. All that said, this is still a highly uncertain forecast
given the possibility that some of the model extremes, in the
deterministic and ensemble members, have a real possibility of
happening. So while it looks like not much snow for the area,
there is a chance for a swath of heavy snow in the forecast area.
It`s just seeming more likely to be a cold rain at this time.
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Tom Grand Master

Tom

Posted
Posted

Waking up to a Winter Storm Watch with up to 8" of snow in the grid along with 1-2"/hr snowfall rates.  Hope it happens but I'm sorta nervous riding the northern edge.  @Jaycee_CHIand our Southern Metro members could be reeling in the Big Dog of the season.  @Hoosier@indianajohnare looking great as they have been shut out pretty much all year.  SW MI peeps look great as well.

 

 

 

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0z Euro Control...Dang, down to 972mb in C IL...only if this system had arctic air to work along with its dynamics.  This would have been a massive blizzard.

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

Posted
Posted

I just saw a radar loop of the SNOW that is falling literally right in our back yard in Fountain Hills, AZ!  Incredibly low elevation snows are hitting the northern valley right now.  I can't wait to see the pics later today from my family and share it with you.

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MIKEKC Rising Star

MIKEKC

Posted
Posted

WOW! The EURO showed the storm hitting KC with rainfall and then snow no more then 30 hours ago, now, it may not even rain in KC. Now, the HRRR, which was showing the same yesterday, doesn't have a drop of rain and temps now hitting 55 degrees tomorrow. 

TOM....The HRRR has nothing for you...

The GFS and CMC might have been the best the last 48 hours...

Safe to say, the models have been down right horrible for this storm. 

One things for sure, We'll know by 10:00 pm tomorrow night what this storm did.

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Stacsh Rising Star

Stacsh

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, MIKEKC said:

WOW! The EURO showed the storm hitting KC with rainfall and then snow no more then 30 hours ago, now, it may not even rain in KC. Now, the HRRR, which was showing the same yesterday, doesn't have a drop of rain and temps now hitting 55 degrees tomorrow. 

TOM....The HRRR has nothing for you...

The GFS and CMC might have been the best the last 48 hours...

Safe to say, the models have been down right horrible for this storm. 

One things for sure, We'll know by 10:00 pm tomorrow night what this storm did.

Yeah I think they should’ve waited for afternoon here in GR for any watches.  I have a watch for 6 inches or more and still could get shut out.  

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Hawkeye Grand Master

Hawkeye

Posted
Posted

12z HRRR.... big southeast jump.  Most models have been pretty bad with this storm.

image.thumb.png.b3c9f0210635374574926548df4d1c2d.png

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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tStacsh Mentor

tStacsh

Posted
Posted

NAM is my only hope lol.  GFS and EURO still give me a little snow.  But you know what?  It's march, if it misses I won't be too upset.  But it would be nice to get a real snow storm that isn't lake effect this year.  

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Hoosier Mentor

Hoosier

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Hawkeye said:

12z HRRR.... big southeast jump.  Most models have been pretty bad with this storm.

image.thumb.png.b3c9f0210635374574926548df4d1c2d.png

How the heck does anybody forecast this thing?  😁  Though it kind of seems like the NAM is an outlier out of the available 12z runs.

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Tony Enthusiast

Tony

Posted
Posted
13 minutes ago, Tom said:

12z GEFS...might miss this one to my SE...

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A 980 mb storm missing to the south. Not too often you see this happen but it's a new climate we are living in. Just the way this winter has gone. Now we will head into Spring with cold and chilly rain all the way into April...can't wait.

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Hawkeye Grand Master

Hawkeye

Posted
Posted

It is really going to rip hard in southeast Michigan Friday afternoon/evening.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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