March 1st-4th...Major Winterstorm Potential

[Stormy]

6 hours ago, Tom said:

I just saw a radar loop of the SNOW that is falling literally right in our back yard in Fountain Hills, AZ!  Incredibly low elevation snows are hitting the northern valley right now.  I can't wait to see the pics later today from my family and share it with you.

Looking forward to some photos as one of my brothers also winters in Fountain Hills. 

[Hoosier]

4 minutes ago, Tom said:

I expect to see vids and photos!  @jaster220 @Niko @Hoosier @WinterSquall23

Gotta clear out some memory on my phone.    Nervous about the gradient though.  

There's a couple storms that are coming to mind even if the meteorological setups are different.  3/9/1998 and 2/24/2016.  The former is the biggest bust in the positive direction that I have ever seen... was forecast to get about an inch the night before and ended up with a foot.  Then there's 2/24/2016, which had the insane gradient across the Chicago area that almost resembled what you'd see in a lake effect event.

[MIKEKC]

35 minutes ago, Tom said:

12z Euro has caved BIGLY towards the GFS...Watch's will be likely taken down for Chitown...

 

Tom, the NAM will get your sprits back up when it comes out here around 2:00

The EURO had snow in MO just yesterday and now, NOTHING!!

I have never seen such chaos with the model world. You know what would solve the problem for most, a cold air mass in place

[WinterSquall23]

44 minutes ago, Tom said:

I expect to see vids and photos!  @jaster220 @Niko @Hoosier @WinterSquall23

You got it.  !  

[indianajohn]

42 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Gotta clear out some memory on my phone.    Nervous about the gradient though.  

There's a couple storms that are coming to mind even if the meteorological setups are different.  3/9/1998 and 2/24/2016.  The former is the biggest bust in the positive direction that I have ever seen... was forecast to get about an inch the night before and ended up with a foot.  Then there's 2/24/2016, which had the insane gradient across the Chicago area that almost resembled what you'd see in a lake effect event.

1998 storm was a huge mess!! I remember power out for 2-3 days.. and rows were impassable! 

[Tom]

48 minutes ago, MIKEKC said:

Tom, the NAM will get your sprits back up when it comes out here around 2:00

The EURO had snow in MO just yesterday and now, NOTHING!!

I have never seen such chaos with the model world. You know what would solve the problem for most, a cold air mass in place

Agree, talk about model whiplash!  You’d think they would “see” the energy since the models have already been getting good data.

[Hoosier]

18z HRRR is northwest of the 12z run.

[Hoosier]

34 minutes ago, indianajohn said:

1998 storm was a huge mess!! I remember power out for 2-3 days.. and rows were impassable! 

It's probably my favorite second tier type of storm, largely because of the surprise factor.  Lost a huge branch from a tree in the front yard during that storm.  I-65 was an absolute disaster with vehicles stranded all over.

[Hoosier]

I'm just stepping back and admiring that it looks like we will have a sub 980 mb low moving through the Ohio Valley tomorrow.  That is a remarkably rare thing. 

The March barometric pressure records in central/southern Indiana are in the low 980s, so those will be in danger of falling.  Other areas may at least threaten their March records too.

[uticasnow]

Where are all the  Michigan people?.  I live in southeast MI (Macomb) looks like we might actually get this?...

[Hoosier]

18z NAM will be a bit south.

I'd hate to be a forecaster in Chicago metro.  Huge bust potential.  The nightmare forecasting scenario would be that you back off with the afternoon forecast update and then the storm comes back north at the last minute.

[WinterSquall23]

9 minutes ago, uticasnow said:

Where are all the  Michigan people?.  I live in southeast MI (Macomb) looks like we might actually get this?...

Hope so, west Oakland county here near M59.  Standin by….

[Hawkeye]

29 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

18z HRRR is northwest of the 12z run.

[Icewoz]

11 minutes ago, uticasnow said:

Where are all the  Michigan people?.  I live in southeast MI (Macomb) looks like we might actually get this?...

Royal Oak here....like they say, if it sounds too good to be true, it is. We will either get warm air here and a mix or dry-slotted like usual.

[MIKEKC]

See Tom, the ole NAM, has you right back in the game!!!!

[Hoosier]

2 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

10:1 maps of various models have been putting out some amounts near 20".  Of course that won't happen.  Something like Kuchera will be more accurate, or perhaps like a 75/25 blend of Kuchera and model snow depth.  

[Hoosier]

NAM did come south, but not an enormous jump mileage wise.

This is wild.  A pretty large number of EPS members were north of the op Euro, so perhaps that is a sign that we could eventually get a northward bump on the non-NAM models.

[uticasnow]

Patiently awaiting DTW latest discussion...

[jaster220]

2 hours ago, Sparky said:

At least it's now looking good for @jaster220 and @Niko and other Southern and Eastern Michigan peeps! 

Might just end up like those other storms this season when the models showed a "storm" level snow - and we got NADA due to marginal thermals. I know this is bigger, but at this point nothing would surprise me tbh

[Hoosier]

This is composite reflectivity, but my God.

[Hoosier]

I think even with no wind, there would be visibility below 1/4 mile and perhaps below 1/8 mile because of such heavy rates.  But throw in some wind and it may be approaching zero visibility at times during heaviest rates, even without much in the way of blowing snow. 

[uticasnow]

6 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Might just end up like those other storms this season when the models showed a "storm" level snow - and we got NADA due to marginal thermals. I know this is bigger, but at this point nothing would surprise me tbh

I know, not getting hopes up but this one might be different

[Nceml]

Hillsdale county for me hopefully the weight of this snow on the trees that just one week ago had all that ice on them doesn’t cause any power problems since some people are just coming online today

[Hoosier]

There's actually spots of 2" precip in 6 hours in the snow area on the HRRR.

[Hoosier]

6 minutes ago, Nceml said:

Hillsdale county for me hopefully the weight of this snow on the trees that just one week ago had all that ice on them doesn’t cause any power problems since some people are just coming online today

I expect lots of outages from this.  Perhaps hundreds of thousands in total.  Numbers could get extremely high if more of the very populated Chicago metro is impacted.

[Jaycee_CHI]

I’m not one to question my sensei @Tom, but I surprisingly think I might be okay where I’m at! I’m pretty far south of Chicago, p sure I’m around the same latitude as the most beautiful town in the world, Gary, Indiana. 
 

Also afaik, the NAM is actually consistent the past few days. I think maybeeee the Canadian has been the only one that’s been close? It’s such a tough forecast, but to think this storm will miss me to the south?! in this economy? The one where we’ve been 33 and rain in the actual winter months?? Idkkkk lol just seems… wrong. 

Tbh, I could care less about accumulation really, I’d be more sad to miss out on seeing how heavy this snow actually is!!! Looks so wild — regardless, we bought wine and edibles in prep for an all girls weekend here with a few friends from the city, so regardless if we all get snowed in together my weekend will be fun  

[gimmesnow]

I want the nam to win but deep down inside I know it stands for "not accurate model"

[Tom]

8 minutes ago, Jaycee_CHI said:

I’m not one to question my sensei @Tom, but I surprisingly think I might be okay where I’m at! I’m pretty far south of Chicago, p sure I’m around the same latitude as the most beautiful town in the world, Gary, Indiana. 
 

Also afaik, the NAM is actually consistent the past few days. I think maybeeee the Canadian has been the only one that’s been close? It’s such a tough forecast, but to think this storm will miss me to the south?! in this economy? The one where we’ve been 33 and rain in the actual winter months?? Idkkkk lol just seems… wrong. 

Tbh, I could care less about accumulation really, I’d be more sad to miss out on seeing how heavy this snow actually is!!! Looks so wild — regardless, we bought wine and edibles in prep for an all girls weekend here with a few friends from the city, so regardless if we all get snowed in together my weekend will be fun  

I think you’re gonna be fine since you’re pretty far south iirc.  Ripping snow sideways during the day is quite a way to enjoy a Friday afternoon.

[uticasnow]

Looking  more likely for snowstorm for southeast Michigan...... latest DTX discussion

Winter Storm Watch for heavy wet snow accumulation potential remains
in effect for all of southeast Michigan for Friday afternoon through
much of Friday night.

Moderate to heavy wet accumulating snow will be possible during this
timeframe, along with wind gusts of 35-45 mph. Potential for
freezing rain and subsequent minor ice accumulations continues to
decrease. Rain will also be possible, with highest confidence in a
transition to rain across southern portions of the region.

Peak of the event will be in the 4pm-10pm timeframe, with
significant travel disruptions to the Friday evening commute likely.
Snowfall rates of 1-2+ inches per hour will be possible where the
heaviest snowfall occurs. Where the heaviest snowfall occurs, the
potential exists for 6-10 inches of accumulation, with localized 12+
inch totals. However, there remains significant model spread in
potential snow amounts across much of southeast Michigan. More
specifics on snow probabilities are discussed below.

Unusually high forecast uncertainty remains regarding where exactly
the rain/snow line sets up and the placement of highest snowfall
totals. Precipitation types will be crucial in determining locations
and higher end snowfall amounts. More specifics on model variability
with respect to the upcoming winter storm are discussed below.

 

[CentralNebWeather]

17 minutes ago, gimmesnow said:

I want the nam to win but deep down inside I know it stands for "not accurate model"

It had me getting 17" on a model run on Tuesday, we received 0.0" today and the sun is shining.  Hard to get something that wrong.

[shakjen]

4 hours ago, shakjen said:

My forecast has 4-8. But the way this winter has gone it will be like the pre-Xmas “blizzard” in which we got 1” 

And just like that, in a span of 4 hours, we went from 4-8” to 1-2”. Good thing LOT pulled the trigger on that winter storm watch. Lol

[Jaycee_CHI]

Omfgggg I’m realizing why I stopped looking at models for so long lmao. WHAT A MESS!!! Im literally riding the line on this storm, a shift of 10 miles can literally change everything! I HATE THIS

[metallica470]

13 minutes ago, Jaycee_CHI said:

Omfgggg I’m realizing why I stopped looking at models for so long lmao. WHAT A MESS!!! Im literally riding the line on this storm, a shift of 10 miles can literally change everything! I HATE THIS

After this awful winter I was so ready for spring and still somehow got lured back in with this storm that may not even be a storm 

[Hoosier]

What a sloppy mess this is shaping up to be.  Not only a very heavy, wet snow, but could potentially receive a decent amount of rain prior to that.

I'm curious about the winds.  Some of the model wind gust products seem a bit inflated.  Mixing shouldn't be that good overall, but the wild card is the convective/heavy snow could theoretically mix down some better gusts through the stable layer.  Guess we'll see.

[gimmesnow]

This one going south then in a few days, rain. Ouch GFS you can't do this to me! Feel like southern MI has been exceptionally hosed this year so I'm happy for you all even if it's not the best time of the year for this.

[uticasnow]

On 12/21/2022 at 12:41 PM, chances14 said:

Yeah i wouldn't be surprised if the snow amounts are lower than forecasted. The wind aspect is going to be the major storyline in this storm so even a couple inches is going to cause havoc

 

On 2/20/2023 at 5:54 PM, uticasnow said:

The warm air will win out, it always does

 

On 2/22/2023 at 11:54 AM, Niko said:

Lets hope we can avoid the freezing rain. Not a fan of ice. Fingers cross.

 

4 hours ago, jaster220 said:

Might just end up like those other storms this season when the models showed a "storm" level snow - and we got NADA due to marginal thermals. I know this is bigger, but at this point nothing would surprise me tbh

 

[uticasnow]

NWS DETROIT SNOWFALL PREDICTION

[uticasnow]

ECMF 6AM SATURDAY

 

[Tom]

DFW about to get rocked…

 

[Andie]

Indeed we were!  Sky black-green at 5pm.  Sirens blaring everywhere as circulation was spotted.  We were actually quite lucky in Ft. Worth.  Heavy rain, small hall for a few minutes. 

It was just starting to wind up for the pitch.  The lights were flashing so bad in the house we turned everything off to keep from trashing the relays.  A good deal of rain.  Have no totals but the lake out back may indicate a lot all at once!

66*  Wind gusts to 75mph during the storm.  Currently 12mph, gusty.  Humidity at 75%.  Dallas is about to get its socks knocked off.  I'm glad we were just the warm up.