March 1st-4th...Major Winterstorm Potential

[Tom]

0z Euro...

[Tom]

Holy smokes!  Flagstaff got pummeled...tack on another 30" or so...No big deal!

[Tom]

Sheesh, I haven't seen LOT going hard on the CRIPPLING potential and Thundersnow for NW IN peeps... @indianajohn @Hoosier

Quote

000
FXUS63 KLOT 031144
AFDLOT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL
544 AM CST Fri Mar 3 2023

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 345 AM CST Fri Mar 3 2023

Through Saturday...

Key Messages:

* Due to the combination of high snowfall rates and wind gusts
  over 45 mph, concerns are increasing that dangerous to
  potentially crippling travel conditions develop this afternoon
  for areas east of I-57 (Winter Storm Warning)

* Sharp northwest cut-off of snowfall amounts and winter impacts
  with the southern Chicago metro right along the gradient in
  snowfall totals

* Confidence in the west and northwest extent of snowfall remains
  low and amounts could still overperform in the Winter Weather
  Advisory areas

* Mesoscale feature could bring period of gusts to near 60 mph
  during the afternoon and accordingly exacerbate blizzard
  conditions and power outages (low confidence)

* Combined liquid from snow and rain could exceed 2 inches and
  result in ponding in poor drainage areas and river rises
  generally southeast of a Pontiac, IL to Gary, IN line

 

 

[Tom]

Is a surprise Blizzard Upgrade coming in the late morning package?

 

Quote

With a deep surface low comes strong surface winds due to the
tightening surface pressure gradient. Confidence is high in seeing
frequent wind gusts in excess of 45 mph along and southeast of I-57.
With these winds in mind, blizzard-like conditions cannot be ruled
out but confidence in a longer duration and greater coverage of
these conditions preclude an upgrade with this forecast package.
Will note that hi-res guidance, and in particular the HRRR, is
trying to resolve a mesoscale feature (possible gravity wave?) with
a period of winds gusting to near 60mph this afternoon.
Confidence in winds of this magnitude actually occurring is low
though it will be something to monitor very closely as it would
ramp up impacts a couple notches, including exacerbating
blizzard-like conditions.

 

[Tom]

My goodness, an incredible 36"  one-day snowfall total at Snowbowl in Flagstaff...a whopping 322" so far this season!

https://www.snowbowl.ski/the-mountain/weather-conditions-webcams/

[Tom]

06z Euro...

 

[MIKEKC]

Ya know, the NAM was not too bad after all for KC. The storm is here this morning and it has been raining really good. I'm at 35 degrees. Closing in on .60 already, with what appears to be several more hours to go. The NAM was consistent with the farthest west track. The only thing the NAM misread, the thermals.....yes, kind of a big deal. But, if you know enough about March weather, you know how hard it is to get enough cold air for these storms and you knew it was going to be close.

The storm we had several weeks ago in KC, 3-5" across the city, was almost identical to this storm. The NAM was aggressive with that one while others weren't. 

Interested in seeing what the storm does later today off to my NE. 

 

 

[WinterSquall23]

Birds chirping here.  Outside it is very calm.  30 degrees, DP is 27.  Here we go!

 

As I write this the chirping has stopped.  

[tStacsh]

I got burned on the cutoff by a few miles.  Oh well.   My driveway is finally clear, hoping to stay that way with minimal effort.  

[Hoosier]

Not really liking the trends.

[indianajohn]

29 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Not really liking the trends.

 

With the lack of cold air to work with this was bound to disappoint a lot of us.

[Hoosier]

6 minutes ago, indianajohn said:

With the lack of cold air to work with this was bound to disappoint a lot of us.

Yeah, I mean I don't think that the heart of the band will have a lot of trouble cooling off sufficiently for heavy snow accumulations, but our area is getting kind of fringey as far as heavy precip.  We'll see what happens though.

[Tom]

@Sparky, here are some photos of the surrounding mountain ranges in Fountain Hills.  I can't believe it snowed on the McDowell Mtn's that border Scottsdale and Fountain Hills.  It's the last photo with the towers on top of the mountain.  This is pretty neat to see.

 

[jaster220]

For DTW... Metro will reside along the expect rain/snow line through
much of this event. This adds a layer of complexity as to how
extensive the impacts from heavy snow will be. Given some degree of
trends toward a colder thermal profile, the TAF will remain more
heavy handed on the snowfall aspect of this system. This may
potentially support snowfall rates over an inch per hour at times.
The more meaningful snowfall is forecast to arrive at metro between 18
and 19Z.

 

I know what the models want to deliver here, and call me a skeptic, but I will have to see this to believe it wrt all the +SN and winds. We'll see. Good luck to all my fellow SMI Peeps!

[indianajohn]

With Current Models... might be time to throw in the towel!! doesn't look promising...

[jaster220]

40 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Yeah, I mean I don't think that the heart of the band will have a lot of trouble cooling off sufficiently for heavy snow accumulations, but our area is getting kind of fringey as far as heavy precip.  We'll see what happens though.

Everyone west of me including yby has looked golden at one point in the last 3-4 days. Now it's even slipping through your fingers?? I've really struggled to embrace this for that very reason, not to mention I had moved on from winter, lol. Currently nothing happening here yet.

[WinterSquall23]

I have a feeling the banter thread might get busy.  Temp is 37 here.  Had flurries in the forecast just changed to light rain.   Good luck to those who can squeeze out some snow. 

[Hoosier]

Some large flakes are mixing in here.

[Hoosier]

38 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Everyone west of me including yby has looked golden at one point in the last 3-4 days. Now it's even slipping through your fingers?? I've really struggled to embrace this for that very reason, not to mention I had moved on from winter, lol. Currently nothing happening here yet.

Good band of precip here now but sharp cutoff not far to my north.  Need it to cool off more.

[Hoosier]

Really coming down here now.  Huge flakes... almost like mini snowbombs falling from the sky.  Given radar appearance, I'm getting a bit more optimistic again.

Very windy in central IL with gusts near 70 mph, so those models with high gusts were onto something.

[Jayhawker85]

Looks like this storm will be a major bust by the models since there is a large lack of cold air! The models the last several storms have really struggled for some reason!

As i stated before, I’m over this winter and just ready for severe weather season 

[Hoosier]

Some of these flakes/aggregates look like they are almost 2" in diameter.

Pavement starting to get covered.

[WinterSquall23]

12 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Some of these flakes/aggregates look like they are almost 2" in diameter.

Pavement starting to get covered.

Started here. Hardest I have seen it snow in a while wind is picking up. 

[uticasnow]

10 minutes ago, WinterSquall23 said:

Started here. Hardest I have seen it snow in a while wind is picking up. 

IMG_4940.MOV

Nothing here in Macomb County yet!

[uticasnow]

15 minutes ago, uticasnow said:

Nothing here in Macomb County yet!

Now it's snowing 3:35PM Macomb County southeast Michigan

[Niko]

Moderate snow attm. Starting to finally stick. Temp is at 34F. Also there is a chance for some thundersnow as well later tanite as the snow really gets cranking. That would be cool.

[WinterSquall23]

Stacking up fast temp 31. Grass covered, wind is ripping! 

[Niko]

8 minutes ago, WinterSquall23 said:

Stacking up fast temp 31. Grass covered, wind is ripping! 

Same here. Let the fun begin.

[Hoosier]

Everything nicely caked in snow.

[Hoosier]

47 minutes ago, Niko said:

Moderate snow attm. Starting to finally stick. Temp is at 34F. Also there is a chance for some thundersnow as well later tanite as the snow really gets cranking. That would be cool.

There's been a ton of thundersnow upstream in IL/IN.

[jaster220]

Near bliz!

[jaster220]

Vis at 1 city block or less. Now this is storm conditions! Even worse than 1/25

[Hoosier]

2 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Vis at 1 city block or less. Now this is storm conditions! Even worse than 1/25

For a pure intensity/excitement factor, this has definitely been the best one for my area so far this winter lol 

[jaster220]

Crawling home

[WinterSquall23]

6 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Vis at 1 city block or less. Now this is storm conditions! Even worse than 1/25

So glad you can experience it finally over here.   

[WinterSquall23]

Possible thundersnow and temp blizzard conditions in March? 
 

CONDITIONS THROUGH LATE
THIS EVENING FROM THE I-69 CORRIDOR SOUTH TO THE OHIO BORDER...

WEATHER...

* Periods of heavy, wet snowfall will continue through 9 PM
across widespread areas from the I-69 corridor south to the
Ohio border, including all of the Detroit metro region, Ann
Arbor, Flint, and surrounding areas. Sporadic blizzard
conditions will be possible through 9 PM resulting in
treacherous to near impossible travel conditions on all
roadways, whether treated or untreated.

* Hourly snowfall rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour will be
common, with localized areas seeing hourly snowfall rates
potentially approaching 3 inches per hour. Additionally,
thundersnow will be possible along with a rogue lightning
strike as bands of intense snowfall move south to north from
the Ohio border across the Detroit metro region and up towards
the I-69 corridor.

* Quick heavy, wet snow accumulations of 3 to 6 inches will be
possible through 9 PM, with locally higher amounts possible.
There remains a low chance of rain mixing in at times near the
Ohio border, which may cut down on snow totals primarily south
of M-50.

 

Hopefully one of us can get some pics or video of that. 

[uticasnow]

7 minutes ago, WinterSquall23 said:

Possible thundersnow and temp blizzard conditions in March? 
 

CONDITIONS THROUGH LATE
THIS EVENING FROM THE I-69 CORRIDOR SOUTH TO THE OHIO BORDER...

WEATHER...

* Periods of heavy, wet snowfall will continue through 9 PM
across widespread areas from the I-69 corridor south to the
Ohio border, including all of the Detroit metro region, Ann
Arbor, Flint, and surrounding areas. Sporadic blizzard
conditions will be possible through 9 PM resulting in
treacherous to near impossible travel conditions on all
roadways, whether treated or untreated.

* Hourly snowfall rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour will be
common, with localized areas seeing hourly snowfall rates
potentially approaching 3 inches per hour. Additionally,
thundersnow will be possible along with a rogue lightning
strike as bands of intense snowfall move south to north from
the Ohio border across the Detroit metro region and up towards
the I-69 corridor.

* Quick heavy, wet snow accumulations of 3 to 6 inches will be
possible through 9 PM, with locally higher amounts possible.
There remains a low chance of rain mixing in at times near the
Ohio border, which may cut down on snow totals primarily south
of M-50.

 

Hopefully one of us can get some pics or video of that. 

Finally a true snow storm here in southeast Michigan!

[jaster220]

2 minutes ago, uticasnow said:

Finally a true snow storm here in southeast Michigan!

Yes! This like a storm from decades past. Unfortunately, power is out here at my place in Canton and I can't tell how widespread the situation is via DTE's outage map. Just showing under 10% out in this area.

[uticasnow]

1 minute ago, jaster220 said:

Yes! This like a storm from decades past. Unfortunately, power is out here at my place in Canton and I can't tell how widespread the situation is via DTE's outage map. Just showing under 10% out in this area.

Good luck...hope your power goes back on soon

[WinterSquall23]

Wife and I watching tv, saw lightning , out the window and then I heard the thunder about 5 seconds later. First time I have ever witnessed thundersnow!!!   The strange thing was, it was barely snowing.  Wow!!!!

[Stacsh]

Ripping here.  I’m just inside the cutoff!  Won’t last long but nice to see 

[Stacsh]

54 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Vis at 1 city block or less. Now this is storm conditions! Even worse than 1/25

Congrats!

[Niko]

This missed the Chicago area to their SE. Ever so close for them. @Tomdid you get any snow from this storm so far? I am guessing probably not.

[Niko]

Look at this beauty.....

[Niko]

Just witness thundersnow. Anyone in Macomb saw this. Cool stuff.

[Tom]

27 minutes ago, Niko said:

This missed the Chicago area to their SE. Ever so close for them. @Tomdid you get any snow from this storm so far? I am guessing probably not.

Not a flake, but I’m cool with it.  Enjoy the blitz!

[BMT]

Congrats to all of you out East!

[WinterSquall23]

Pound town here ! Visibility down to 1/4 mile.  Snow is wet and reminds me of the storms we used to get in the Cascade Mts. 

 

 

 

 

[WinterSquall23]

4 minutes ago, Niko said:

Just witness thundersnow. Anyone in Macomb saw this. Cool stuff.

@Niko same here .  Oakland as well. 

[Niko]

1 minute ago, Tom said:

Not a flake, but I’m cool with it.  Enjoy the blitz!

Thanks. Its a winter wonderland out there. It deteriorated so quickly late this afternoon, hard to believe.

Next week shows some more opportunities for major snows. Hopefully, Chicago gets it on it this time.