St Paul Storm Posted December 23, 2018 Report Share Posted December 23, 2018 MPX:The 12Z GFS continues to be the fastestin progressing the system while the 12Z Euro remains almost half aday slower as it develops a vertically stacked low. The 12Z CMC &FV3 GFS split the difference but generally side towards the slowerand more organized 12Z Euro run. The GEFS ensemble mean is actuallyslower and more in line with the CMC/FV3/Euro solutions, suggestingthe current GFS may be a fast outlier at the moment. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 23, 2018 Report Share Posted December 23, 2018 MPX:The 12Z GFS continues to be the fastestin progressing the system while the 12Z Euro remains almost half aday slower as it develops a vertically stacked low. The 12Z CMC &FV3 GFS split the difference but generally side towards the slowerand more organized 12Z Euro run. The GEFS ensemble mean is actuallyslower and more in line with the CMC/FV3/Euro solutions, suggestingthe current GFS may be a fast outlier at the moment.Great write up. My weather office with very little discussions and scenarios lately. I get more information on the forum. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted December 23, 2018 Report Share Posted December 23, 2018 18z FV3 has rain all the way up to Duluth. Lol. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 24, 2018 Report Share Posted December 24, 2018 0z Icon still looking about the same. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 24, 2018 Report Share Posted December 24, 2018 18z FV3 has rain all the way up to Duluth. Lol. 0z NAM's gone grinchy as well. Removed the Christmas snow apparently due to lack of cold air, then throws the rain far north for the large system 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted December 24, 2018 Report Share Posted December 24, 2018 Wow gfs looking pretty good here! Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted December 24, 2018 Report Share Posted December 24, 2018 Wow gfs looking pretty good here!I was going to say some interesting wrap around on the GFS. Not the best run but still. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted December 24, 2018 Report Share Posted December 24, 2018 Not the best? Its been the best from it ive seen for us in 5 days! 2 Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted December 24, 2018 Report Share Posted December 24, 2018 Not the best? Its been the best from it ive seen for us in 5 days!True but I was hoping for it to pick up on more thermals. But then again models aren't the best at doing that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted December 24, 2018 Report Share Posted December 24, 2018 CMC still going way more rain not as much wrap around. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 24, 2018 Report Share Posted December 24, 2018 0z NAM's gone grinchy as well. Removed the Christmas snow apparently due to lack of cold air, then throws the rain far north for the large system Gotta laugh at this Winter. 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted December 24, 2018 Report Share Posted December 24, 2018 Fv3 going weird again. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormgeek Posted December 24, 2018 Report Share Posted December 24, 2018 00z GFS is an eye sore. Yikes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 24, 2018 Report Share Posted December 24, 2018 Fv3 going weird again.I thought the same thing. They all are having some issues and strange jumping around of the low imo. I really have no clue what will happen and I don’t see much confidence in the mets as I have read various discos from this region. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted December 24, 2018 Report Share Posted December 24, 2018 I thought the same thing. They all are having some issues and strange jumping around of the low imo. I really have no clue what will happen and I don’t see much confidence in the mets as I have read various discos from this region.I'm noticing that. I believe that there is a ton of moisture involved, but thermals are messing with the models. Time will tell I guess. That new year's storm has disappeared too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted December 24, 2018 Report Share Posted December 24, 2018 Never seen a more sad looking storm thread lol. EURO went even more north tonight while GFS went south. Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 24, 2018 Author Report Share Posted December 24, 2018 00z EPS trended back NW with its snow shield across all of NE leaving many without any chance of snow except for CentralNeb and Gabel...MN posters still looking good but the farther south you are, not so much. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted December 24, 2018 Report Share Posted December 24, 2018 Sadly looks like it's lossing steam. Although GFS has the new year's storm showing back up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 24, 2018 Report Share Posted December 24, 2018 00z EPS trended back NW with its snow shield across all of NE leaving many without any chance of snow except for CentralNeb and Gabel...MN posters still looking good but the farther south you are, not so much.. Yea, the dreaded NW trend is what I was thinking when I was in the bullseye Saturday. Oh well, it will produce all types of precipitation here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 24, 2018 Report Share Posted December 24, 2018 Local Mets with first initial snowfall maps out. My area 2-5”. Just a little Northwest you start seeing 6-8” then a little farther northwest 8-12”. All going to depend on where the line is and what side of it you’re on. Local ABC met thinks just east of the Tri-Cities of Central Nebraska won’t see a flake. Starting to warn drivers of big problems if heading west across Nebraska Wednesday into Thursday. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted December 24, 2018 Report Share Posted December 24, 2018 This has turned into a classic April storm. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted December 24, 2018 Report Share Posted December 24, 2018 The graphic from MPX shows the TC still in the high risk zone for heavy snow, but they also show a likely snowfall amount of only 3”. Still a nice hit on the Euro but things have really trended downhill. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 24, 2018 Report Share Posted December 24, 2018 12z Icon hits Central Nebraska and has trended a little farther east. Shows western Nebraska getting 0. Those are places that NWS and Euro are painting at over a foot. Some forecast is going to miss badly if this were to verify. As I have been reading this morning, NWS offices in this region are going with the Euro. Could the Euro start a slow bump East? Should be fun to watch. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted December 24, 2018 Report Share Posted December 24, 2018 12z Icon hits Central Nebraska and has trended a little farther east. Shows western Nebraska getting 0. Those are places that NWS and Euro are painting at over a foot. Some forecast is going to miss badly if this were to verify. As I have been reading this morning, NWS offices in this region are going with the Euro. Could the Euro start a slow bump East? Should be fun to watch.I think the 3 or 4 of us that are in the potential path of this thing really gotta hope that the Euro is correct. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 24, 2018 Report Share Posted December 24, 2018 12z GFS won’t make very many happy. No large amounts anywhere close to this region. NWS offices have been saying that the GFS has been the outlier. Hope that is correct. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 24, 2018 Report Share Posted December 24, 2018 I think the 3 or 4 of us that are in the potential path of this thing really gotta hope that the Euro is correct.You’re right. If the King is wrong it changes a lot of plans around here that are starting to be altered from forecasts that people are seeing. Not blaming anyone, they are going with information provided. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted December 24, 2018 Report Share Posted December 24, 2018 The fact that the Euro really sped up the system on the 0z run is concerning. It more closely resembled the GFS in terms of speed. The GFS was being written off as an outlier but now I’m not so sure. It might be the leader. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 24, 2018 Report Share Posted December 24, 2018 12z CMC looks like the Euro with the sharp edge. Gives me 4-6” and west northwest west of me 8-12”. Looks like the insane totals are slowly decreasing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 24, 2018 Report Share Posted December 24, 2018 The fact that the Euro really sped up the system on the 0z run is concerning. It more closely resembled the GFS in terms of speed. The GFS was being written off as an outlier but now I’m not so sure. It might be the leader.I saw the GFS days ago with this look and wrote it off. Maybe it will prove correct and the king will have been knocked off his throne. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 24, 2018 Report Share Posted December 24, 2018 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 24, 2018 Report Share Posted December 24, 2018 12z Euro has begun. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted December 24, 2018 Report Share Posted December 24, 2018 12z Euro has begun.Looks like it cuts up through south central Nebraska, not good for my snow chances. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted December 24, 2018 Report Share Posted December 24, 2018 Nice little tick south with the snow here on the 12z FV3. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 24, 2018 Author Report Share Posted December 24, 2018 12z Euro with a rain to snow scenario across C NE, but a snow to rain switch over near the MSP area...front end thump of some decent snow, then comes the rain even all the way up to the U.P., before it switches back to snow as the low moves on by... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 24, 2018 Report Share Posted December 24, 2018 12z Euro with a rain to snow scenario across C NE, but a snow to rain switch over near the MSP area...front end thump of some decent snow, then comes the rain even all the way up to the U.P., before it switches back to snow as the low moves on by...Keeps moving Northwestward. Not a fan of that. That trend was always in play. Well darn. I guess we try again with the next storm. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 24, 2018 Report Share Posted December 24, 2018 Looks like it cuts up through south central Nebraska, not good for my snow chances.We are both on the line. Not looking good. Need a Christmas miracle for a 50-75 mile shift east southeast. Not holding my breath. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormgeek Posted December 24, 2018 Report Share Posted December 24, 2018 Looks like a mess. High of 36; just gonna punt and enjoy the holidays here. See everyone after Christmas! 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 24, 2018 Report Share Posted December 24, 2018 Looks like a mess. High of 36; just gonna punt and enjoy the holidays here. See everyone after Christmas!Probably the best plan. Might come down to nowcasting and radar watching with temps either side of 32. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted December 24, 2018 Report Share Posted December 24, 2018 Probably the best plan. Might come down to nowcasting and radar watching with temps either side of 32.This. Any slight deviation in track will have big impacts on precip type. Still 2 days to go unbelievably. Seems like we’ve been tracking this thing forever. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 24, 2018 Report Share Posted December 24, 2018 Winter Storm Watches hoisted 45 miles west of me. NWS Hastings met in a news story says his gut tells him this storm may edge east 1-2 counties over the next couple of days. So your saying there’s a chance? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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