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12/26 - 12-28 Winter Storm


Tom

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MPX:

The 12Z GFS continues to be the fastest

in progressing the system while the 12Z Euro remains almost half a

day slower as it develops a vertically stacked low. The 12Z CMC &

FV3 GFS split the difference but generally side towards the slower

and more organized 12Z Euro run. The GEFS ensemble mean is actually

slower and more in line with the CMC/FV3/Euro solutions, suggesting

the current GFS may be a fast outlier at the moment.

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MPX:

The 12Z GFS continues to be the fastest

in progressing the system while the 12Z Euro remains almost half a

day slower as it develops a vertically stacked low. The 12Z CMC &

FV3 GFS split the difference but generally side towards the slower

and more organized 12Z Euro run. The GEFS ensemble mean is actually

slower and more in line with the CMC/FV3/Euro solutions, suggesting

the current GFS may be a fast outlier at the moment.

Great write up. My weather office with very little discussions and scenarios lately. I get more information on the forum.

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18z FV3 has rain all the way up to Duluth. Lol.

 

0z NAM's gone grinchy as well. Removed the Christmas snow apparently due to lack of cold air, then throws the rain far north for the large system

 

namconus_ref_frzn_us_52.png

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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0z NAM's gone grinchy as well. Removed the Christmas snow apparently due to lack of cold air, then throws the rain far north for the large system

 

namconus_ref_frzn_us_52.png

:lol: Gotta laugh at this Winter. 

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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I thought the same thing. They all are having some issues and strange jumping around of the low imo. I really have no clue what will happen and I don’t see much confidence in the mets as I have read various discos from this region.

I'm noticing that. I believe that there is a ton of moisture involved, but thermals are messing with the models. Time will tell I guess. That new year's storm has disappeared too.

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00z EPS trended back NW with its snow shield across all of NE leaving many without any chance of snow except for CentralNeb and Gabel...MN posters still looking good but the farther south you are, not so much.

.

 

Yea, the dreaded NW trend is what I was thinking when I was in the bullseye Saturday. Oh well, it will produce all types of precipitation here.

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Local Mets with first initial snowfall maps out. My area 2-5”. Just a little Northwest you start seeing 6-8” then a little farther northwest 8-12”. All going to depend on where the line is and what side of it you’re on. Local ABC met thinks just east of the Tri-Cities of Central Nebraska won’t see a flake. Starting to warn drivers of big problems if heading west across Nebraska Wednesday into Thursday.

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12z Icon hits Central Nebraska and has trended a little farther east. Shows western Nebraska getting 0. Those are places that NWS and Euro are painting at over a foot. Some forecast is going to miss badly if this were to verify. As I have been reading this morning, NWS offices in this region are going with the Euro. Could the Euro start a slow bump East? Should be fun to watch.

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12z Icon hits Central Nebraska and has trended a little farther east. Shows western Nebraska getting 0. Those are places that NWS and Euro are painting at over a foot. Some forecast is going to miss badly if this were to verify. As I have been reading this morning, NWS offices in this region are going with the Euro. Could the Euro start a slow bump East? Should be fun to watch.

I think the 3 or 4 of us that are in the potential path of this thing really gotta hope that the Euro is correct.

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I think the 3 or 4 of us that are in the potential path of this thing really gotta hope that the Euro is correct.

You’re right. If the King is wrong it changes a lot of plans around here that are starting to be altered from forecasts that people are seeing. Not blaming anyone, they are going with information provided.

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The fact that the Euro really sped up the system on the 0z run is concerning. It more closely resembled the GFS in terms of speed. The GFS was being written off as an outlier but now I’m not so sure. It might be the leader.

I saw the GFS days ago with this look and wrote it off. Maybe it will prove correct and the king will have been knocked off his throne.

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12z Euro with a rain to snow scenario across C NE, but a snow to rain switch over near the MSP area...front end thump of some decent snow, then comes the rain even all the way up to the U.P., before it switches back to snow as the low moves on by...

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12z Euro with a rain to snow scenario across C NE, but a snow to rain switch over near the MSP area...front end thump of some decent snow, then comes the rain even all the way up to the U.P., before it switches back to snow as the low moves on by...

Keeps moving Northwestward. Not a fan of that. That trend was always in play. Well darn. I guess we try again with the next storm.

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