January 2019 Observations and Discussion

[jaster220]

Heatwave for this weekend in SEMI as temps near the 50 degree mark or better w sunshine. Oh boy, I can see some record high temps being broken. The 40s continue into next week as well. No snow in sight for at least the first 2 wks of January as for now.

 

@Jaster...are ya going to hit the lake this upcoming weekend for a tan?!

 

I wish I could

 

Seriously tho, winter will likely show up after I've grown tired of waiting for it.   If we're getting Mar/Apr wx now, spring may go the other way. Wouldn't be shocked tbh

[St Paul Storm]

Over 300 hours of no flakes here on the GFS/FV3. Where have I seen this before? It would be easy to claim this winter is likely a bust, but last year I had 10” of snow at this time and finished with 78”. Let’s hope for a repeat.

 

Current snow season to date is 11”.

[Tom]

Over 300 hours of no flakes here on the GFS/FV3. Where have I seen this before? It would be easy to claim this winter is likely a bust, but last year I had 10” of snow at this time and finished with 78”. Let’s hope for a repeat.

 

Current snow season to date is 11”.

We need a legendary finish to winter and I still believe it’s coming. This warm spell was far longer than I had originally thought. I’d be lying if I said it was supposed to happen. The lesson learned, a near record SSW and lack of any -EPO killed the late Dec cold and early Jan cold. Once the effects of the SSW kick in along with high Lat blocking it’ll get much better. I’d like to see at least a neutral EPO as well.

 

Meanwhile, kicking back and watching the Winter Classic on NBC. Go Hawks!

[Niko]

I wish I could

 

Seriously tho, winter will likely show up after I've grown tired of waiting for it.   If we're getting Mar/Apr wx now, spring may go the other way. Wouldn't be shocked tbh

I agree 100% buddy!

[Tom]

What did I learn from today's 12z runs???  Both GFS/EURO tank the AO and NAO around the 6th and keep it that way through the end of run.  I assume the models are going to have a fun time figuring out the blocking and storm track going forward.  

[westMJim]

I wish I could

 

Seriously tho, winter will likely show up after I've grown tired of waiting for it.   If we're getting Mar/Apr wx now, spring may go the other way. Wouldn't be shocked tbh

That very we could happen. . In looking at Grand Rapids history I did find a winter season that “could” be a path to a average to just above average snow fall season. The winter??? 1971/72 At Grand Rapids November 1971 had 14.9” of snow fall (November 2018 had 14.4”) December of 1971 had just 3.7” and was the 7^th least snowy December of record here. (December 2018 is in 6^th place with 3.2”) January 1972 started out warm and most of the first 13 days were warmer than average. But there was 12.2” of snow in the 13 days. Starting on the 14^th of January it became much colder and the rest of the month was colder then average but only 10.6” of snow fell that 2^nd half (a total of 22.6”) February was cold (-4.9°) and there was 16.9” of snow. March was cold -6.0° with 14.2” of snow and April was cold 5.7 be low average and seen 5.7” of snow. Spring did come later in May of 1972

BTW that winter was one of only 2 that had very low December snow fall totals at Grand Rapids that came in with at or above average seasonal snow fall one of the other was the winter of 2014/15 but that winter had 31.0" in November and then had 23.2 in January and 19.6 in February. 

[westMJim]

What did I learn from today's 12z runs???  Both GFS/EURO tank the AO and NAO around the 6th and keep it that way through the end of run.  I assume the models are going to have a fun time figuring out the blocking and storm track going forward.  

If it indeed turns colder sometime in January look at the winter of 1971/72 for a possible analog clue 

[CentralNebWeather]

Over 300 hours of no flakes here on the GFS/FV3. Where have I seen this before? It would be easy to claim this winter is likely a bust, but last year I had 10” of snow at this time and finished with 78”. Let’s hope for a repeat.

 

Current snow season to date is 11”.

You know it is a strange year when my location in Central Nebraska has had over 1 foot more snow at least (waiting on official December stats along with November)than the Twin Cities.

[Tom]

I'd imagine today's 12z EPS will have a much colder look, esp after seeing today's MJO run which is now showing some amplification into Phase 8...

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/ECMF_phase_51m_small.gif

 

GEFS suggest we go into Phase 7...both are cold and both are suggesting favorable teleconnections beginning next week..

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/NCPE_phase_21m_small.gif

[Madtown]

[Stacsh]

[Madtown]

Looks like maybe by the 18th it cools off, but who knows...been waiting for a pattern change since Dec 13th so not holding my breath this one shows up.

[Andie]

Shouldn't there be a thread for the projected Oklahoma storm? Several models now have that state getting a massive snowfall.

North Texas often benefits from Oklahoma storms in the winter.

The DFW area will receive morning ice falling between a rain sandwich tomorrow. Our deep cold usually doesn't show up till closert o mid January through February. Okwx has become discouraged, but I think we both have some real weather ahead.

[Andie]

It's fascinating and crazy that by the end of the first week of January, Oklahoma City (or somewhere near there) likely will have a greater seasonal snowfall total than Des Moines. Not trying to take anything away from our Oklahoma folks.  But what a sucky winter so far.

 

Pretty typical for our general area. When Texas is dealing with an El Niño of any strength, we usually get snow and/or ice.

Our last large snow event was winter of '08/'09 and we received a boatload of snow for our area. We had not seen a snow event like that for a long time.

We can get 5-8" snows as late as Valentine's Day.

[GDR]

[Minny_Weather]

^ This has not been Southern Alberta's winter.

[jaster220]

Looks like maybe by the 18th it cools off, but who knows...been waiting for a pattern change since Dec 13th so not holding my breath this one shows up.

 

Here's your culprit imho. The SSWE shoved what I call the "back-drop" cold anomalies everywhere but NAMER

 

[jaster220]

That very we could happen. . In looking at Grand Rapids history I did find a winter season that “could” be a path to a average to just above average snow fall season. The winter??? 1971/72 At Grand Rapids November 1971 had 14.9” of snow fall (November 2018 had 14.4”) December of 1971 had just 3.7” and was the 7^th least snowy December of record here. (December 2018 is in 6^th place with 3.2”) January 1972 started out warm and most of the first 13 days were warmer than average. But there was 12.2” of snow in the 13 days. Starting on the 14^th of January it became much colder and the rest of the month was colder then average but only 10.6” of snow fell that 2^nd half (a total of 22.6”) February was cold (-4.9°) and there was 16.9” of snow. March was cold -6.0° with 14.2” of snow and April was cold 5.7 be low average and seen 5.7” of snow. Spring did come later in May of 1972

BTW that winter was one of only 2 that had very low December snow fall totals at Grand Rapids that came in with at or above average seasonal snow fall one of the other was the winter of 2014/15 but that winter had 31.0" in November and then had 23.2 in January and 19.6 in February. 

 

Interestingly, 2014-15 would be the favored analog turn-about here in Marshall for two reasons. First, the Nov LES outbreak of '14 clobbered GR while mostly just grazing Marshall thus we actually got most of our snow after it turned colder in January. 2nd, when the tide finally turned it was the 94 corridor south of GR that took a direct hit with the Feb 2nd Big Dog snowstorm. Mby snowfall by month for that season: Nov 6.7" Dec 1.2" Jan 18.5" Feb 26.9" Mar 2". I finished with 11% above normal snowfall and spring was not delayed. Much prefer that path to a snowy total if I had a choice.

[Niko]

Cloudy w temps in the 20s. Geez when I walked outside later this evening after that huge NYD party, if felt balmy. What a weird Winter.

[jaster220]

Cloudy w temps in the 20s. Geez when I walked outside later this evening after that huge NYD party, if felt balmy. What a weird Winter.

 

Meanwhile, with fresh snow cover NMI will go below zero. Currently down to 4F at Gaylord.

[Andie]

Well, the ice pellets in the morning chickened out. They're saying now we will see rain and snow showers Thursday afternoon. I'm sure it will melt, but maybe it'll be pretty. Temps will be on the 32-34* line.

 

Thought it was a little too early for ice and snow, although it has happened. When it did it was with a strong system barreling out of the Rockies. Oh well, OKwx and I can soothe our woes with a New Years toast!

[Hawkeye]

Even the current brief cold blast pooped out compared to what it originally was supposed to be.  Instead of highs in the teens, we're getting lows in the teens.

[Niko]

Currently clear skies and a temp of 22F.

[Niko]

Meanwhile, with fresh snow cover NMI will go below zero. Currently down to 4F at Gaylord.

That snowcover definitely lowers those temps.

[Niko]

That early week system next week looks to be rain and not snow. Perhaps some flurries at the tail end of it. Temps look very marginal for any wintry precipitation. Believe it or not couple of days ago, models were showing a 3-5inch snowevent for my area and now it has gone to a rainevent. Wow, just wow.

[Niko]

This is my only day at or below freezing forecasted for next 8 days. If winter comes, it’s going to be short lived.

Pathetic Winter so far.

[Tom]

After analyzing the overnight 00z EPS/GEFS, its interesting to see that both of them are seeing more blocking early next week developing across SE Canada which may aid in a more wintry storm system (7th-9th) in and around the GL's.  The 00z Euro spun up a pretty healthy looking snow storm for MI which also has some good ensemble support.  The amount of blocking evolving into the pattern would support such a system so something to track possibly for the GL's region???

 

Looking out ahead, there still is quite the differences between the EPS/GEFS on how the pattern develops later next week.  This week will lead us into a very busy and active period (11th-12), (15th-18th) as we head into one of the more active periods of the LRC.  More notably, the Blizzard that hit in late November which will cycle through about the middle of the month, but before then, there are more possible opportunities.

 

Let's dive in...IMO, I believe the GEFS are handling the blocking much better than the EPS.  It seems to me the EPS is having a difficult time with the EPO and Greenland Block.  Here is a reason why I believe there will be blocking and why the GEFS are handling the pattern a lot better  Week 1-2.  Taking a look at the 30mb warming which has occurred between Dec 13-30th, we saw it blossom near Greenland and if you fast forward 2-3 weeks, it would suggest a -NAO to blossom a few days before Jan 1st (which has happened) and continue for at least 2 weeks.  BTW, we may loose the strength of the -NAO (more neutral?) towards the middle of the month so something to watch.

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/temp30anim.gif''

 

 

When will we see a return of the Hudson Bay Polar Vortex???  It's coming and it will cycle back between the 14th-16th and with more high lat blocking in place...look for the cold to really start bleeding south.  One of the main reasons I look at the GEFS 10mb height maps is it provides a great tool where to expect troughs/ridges in the extended.  Check out the animation below and one will quickly notice that following the PV split, a main vortex takes over into North America.  I haven't seen this type of set up all season long which bodes well for extreme cold to build and part of the reason why severe winter may be setting up mid/late January.  I'll comment more on storm threats in my next post.

[Tom]

"The storms are a comin'..."...this past weekend, we saw the models flash the Jan 7th-9th storm system, then loose it, now some models are trying to bring it back.  Let's see where the models trend but this one may end up being a N GL's sytems, unless the blocking is stronger across SE Canada.  Following this system, I'm looking for another one to develop a 2-3 days later between the 11th-12th.  Last nights 00z/06z GEFS are trending a bit more wintry across the Plains into the GL's.  We need to see what happens with the EPO as it will be critical and allow the cold to "push" south during this period.   Could this system be the one the "breaks the camels back"???  With the high lat blocking fully entrenched and a favorable MJO, IMO, odds are in favor of this to happen, all awhile, the active period of the LRC cycles back during some of the more powerful storm systems and main Exhibit. 

 

With that in mind, according to the BSR and LRC, the periods from Jan 15th-18th & Jan 21st-24th, look for a couple powerful storms to track out of the SW and cut NE.  The Euro weeklies have been holding onto the idea of a relaxed PNA during this period and last nights EPS jet stream forecast heading into Week 2 is forecasting a deep SW Flow pattern and fits the long standing idea of a SER during the middle/end of January.  I know there has been a lot of angst among some folks on here, but as I said before, give this season a chance bc there is a lot on the table.  I'll be the first to say that I busted Bigly on the lack of cold to close out the month of Dec and open Jan.  Needless to say, it's a learning experience and a humbling one.  However, I will say, that I do a darn good job predicting storm systems sometimes weeks out into the future.  So, I'll finish with this, as the SSW begins to subside and the slow propagation of the effects following a Major Mid-Warming event, this winter will have legs and I believe it begins later next week.

[Stacsh]

Surprise WWA today for 1-2" of snow.  Lake Enhanced.  GRR said its been so long since last snow they issued the advisory to remind people lol.

[Clinton]

Tom, great write up and analysis.  You have a great understanding of the LRC and seem to be spot on in your assessment of the upcoming pattern.  Gary Lezak has written a blog today that supports everything Tom stated above and should improve a lot of feeling about what the rest of this winter has in store.  He goes into detail about what caused the blizzard to happen in the first cycle and his opinions on the upcoming cycle.

 

https://weather2020.com/2019/01/02/a-look-into-what-created-the-blizzard-conditions-in-november/

[Tom]

Tom, great write up and analysis.  You have a great understanding of the LRC and seem to be spot on in your assessment of the upcoming pattern.  Gary Lezak has written a blog today that supports everything Tom stated above and should improve a lot of feeling about what the rest of this winter has in store.  He goes into detail about what caused the blizzard to happen in the first cycle and his opinions on the upcoming cycle.

 

https://weather2020.com/2019/01/02/a-look-into-what-created-the-blizzard-conditions-in-november/

Thanks Clinton!  I appreciate that...the reality is, I put the time and work into studying the wx pattern.  In the end, I hope there is value at the end of the day.  With that being said, the target period around the 10th or so of the month, the pattern becomes more favorable for systems across the Plains and the models seem to be pointing that way.  Good luck to you down there!  

[Andie]

Woke to ice/rain mix this morning. Seems the freezing rain changed its mind.

Dallas in the clear, but Ft. Worth dealing with slick bridges and overpasses as we are higher in elevation. Not uncommon in No Tx.

 

Two days of rain ahead with highs and lows in the mid 30's.

Currently 31*, mixed precipitation.

[Niko]

Cloudy w a few snowshowers flying around. A dusting is around. Temps at 25F.

[Minny_Weather]

I'm going to back up what Tom is saying about a storm in the 15-18th timeframe. The Western trough that has been plaguing us forever looks to move into the area per EPS, and I do think we will see a storm from that. 

 

 

One thing I am concerned about in this case, however, are thermals. 850 temps look to be at normal or above normal, with 2M temps similar, if not warmer. There is not much cold air to work with as this will be a Pacific flow. For people up North, that may not be a big deal. In places like Iowa and Nebraska, however, above normal is above freezing. I would not be surprised to see this turn into a rain or even ice event for some. Butttt it's two weeks out so we will see.

[Stormy]

[Niko]

Some very light snowshowers are still around creating a light glaze on the surface. Some slick spots are possible w temps in the 20s.

[Stormy]

Wow....that’s amazing! Sorry, but I’m enjoying it though. Once I change occupations (I’m thinking about it or retiring ) then I can enjoy snow to the fullest again though I always will hate bitter cold!!

Don’t get me wrong.... I still enjoy big snowstorms like the one on November 25! I ‘ll remember that one for a long time since it was one of the largest on my records, & it occurred in November!!!

[Minny_Weather]

Now the GEFS is concerning. Kills the idea of a 15-18th storm. However, I am not willing to put much weight on it just yet simply because it has a ridge overpowering the Southern stream and basically "pushing" the trough back out deep into the Pacific. It then proceeds to revive the trough in the Southeastern part of the country. I think that's wacky & at the moment unbelievable. We'll see in about a week or so.

[Niko]

The futurecast has a couple of systems down the road, but not even looking at them attm. Way to soon. Its good though that models are seeing LP's. Just hope they don't fade out as the event nears.

[Money]

The storm next week is starting to get interesting

 

Def trend south and colder