2019 California and Southwest Weather Discussion Thread

[Anti Marine Layer]

How is it that a moisture flow from Hawaii which brought snowfall down to 6500 feet can travel all the way to California as an atmospheric river with the snow level at 10000 feet?

[Reg]

First wave of rain hit an hour ago, lasting for about one hour. I was driving in it when it got really heavy for a bit. I got 0.05" from it and it looks like there won't be much more activity for a while, judging by the doppler radar. Kinda disappointed so far.

[Reg]

Ha, the NWS-San Diego's latest forecast discussion for the Inland Empire starts off with this:

Are you ready for some rain? A strong atmospheric river with PWATS satellite estimate nearly 2" just SW of the San Diego area attm. (...)

[Anti Marine Layer]

Where is all the rain?

[Reg]

Where is all the rain?

 

I agree, not much has happened since that frontal wave hit us around noon. It has been drizzling here for about half an hour now though, although it has not been measurable.

 

Doppler radar shows a large plume of moisture directed at San Diego County and northern Baja California, but nothing up here.

[Anti Marine Layer]

It has started to rain lightly again.

[Reg]

Rain has become more steady and persistent here within the past hour. 0.08" now and slowly rising.

[Reg]

Heavier rain hitting us now. Moisture plume appears to be slowly drifting north.

[Anti Marine Layer]

Since we're locked in a persistent trough pattern, someone downstream must be locked in a persistent ridge pattern. Stronger troughs and stronger ridges that persist for weeks or months seem to be a feature of climate change.

[Anti Marine Layer]

Rain has died down again.

[Reg]

0.39" ending at midnight and 0.03" since then.

[Reg]

Very heavy rain just a minute ago.

 

[Reg]

Sustained heavy rainfall for over an hour at my location now. Already at 0.50" since midnight alone and quickly rising. Very loud outside.

[Anti Marine Layer]

1.70" as of 5:15 AM for Lake Forest and still pouring out there.

[crf450ish]

My family and I are going to be moving to Phoenix in several months. Visited there many many times. Other than being hot most of the year, what other weather Dynamics can I look forward to? I ask simply because whenever we've been down there, we have been in vacation mode and it was just hot and sunny. Not much thought was put into weather observations.

[Anti Marine Layer]

2.67" for Lake Forest now, but the rain seems to be easing up a bit.

[Anti Marine Layer]

Up to 3.15" so far.

[Anti Marine Layer]

Downtown L.A is getting very close to their annual average for precipitation.

[Reg]

2.14" since midnight here, my backyard is underwater. My car's tires are half-submerged in a river of rainwater along the street. I keep having to edit my rain total while posting this because it is rising so rapidly. My manual rain gauge is approaching overflow levels.

 

More rain has fallen in the last 9 hours in Temecula (3.87") than during the entire rainy seasons of 2001-02 (3.87") and 2006-07 (3.75"). De Luz has recorded 4.25" since midnight. Stations here are beginning to exceed their entire season averages.

[Anti Marine Layer]

Even Palm Springs is over 2 inches.

[Reg]

My family and I are going to be moving to Phoenix in several months. Visited there many many times. Other than being hot most of the year, what other weather Dynamics can I look forward to? I ask simply because whenever we've been down there, we have been in vacation mode and it was just hot and sunny. Not much thought was put into weather observations.

 

Aside from the heat, that part of Arizona is often subject to monsoonal moisture during the summer months. I admit I'm not familiar with Phoenix's weather nearly as much however. Won't get particularly cold due to its relative low elevation (compared to the higher deserts).

[Reg]

You guys down south are really getting pounded.  Heavy shower here for a total of 1.30" on the day, 1.65" for the storm.

 

Just need a couple more inches to have the first double-digit rain month since January 2008.

 

December 2010 was also very wet, we had 12.18" that month. 

 

Temecula is approaching the record daily rainfall for the station (records date back to 1999). The record is currently held by 4.23" on November 30th, 2007. Temecula right now has 4.02" and it's only 10 AM. I'm at 2.20" since midnight.

[Reg]

KSOX and KNKX radars are down for me right now. Currently getting hit by an absolute onslaught of heavy rain.

 

2.45" since midnight and rising

[Anti Marine Layer]

Downtown L.A. over their annual average now. 3.89" for Lake Forest so far.

[Reg]

For the first time today, the rain has stopped.

[Bonk]

Modjeska Canyon has had 4.13" in the last 12 hrs. and 5.20" in the last 24 hrs.

 

Santiago Creek, which runs behind my house, is raging.

[Anti Marine Layer]

Rain has stopped and sun might come out.

[Anti Marine Layer]

December 2010 was also very wet, we had 12.18" that month. 

 

I remember that one. I think it rained pretty much non-stop for 5 days with the atmospheric river with a very strong cold front as the grand finale.

[Anti Marine Layer]

Only 1.06" for San Diego, but the Coachella Valley got hammered with more than 3.5 inches of rain at Palm Springs Airport. So much for the less than one inch forecast for Coachella Valley.

Looks like the atmospheric river has migrated south of the border and weakened.

After the rain stopped today I walked my dog and went to Serrano Creek Park, which is right near my house. A huge eucalyptus had fallen being completely uprooted and bent a road sign. However the creek was not as high as I had expected it to be after nearly 4 inches of rain.

The biggest storm we ever had dropped 7 inches of rain in a few hours and it literally sounded like a waterfall outside. You could not hear the drops. That storm washed away a huge chunk of sidewalk from the park and the creek was probably 10-20 feet over its regular level.

[Reg]

I remember that one. I think it rained pretty much non-stop for 5 days with the atmospheric river with a very strong cold front as the grand finale.

 

2010-11 remains the wettest rainy season of the 2010s, owing primarily to that month. 2016-17 was decent though too. All other seasons were below-average to some degree, although now 2018-19 can be excluded from that list. The 2010s as a whole was our driest decade since the 1940s. The last truly "epic" rainy season was 2004-05, I wonder when we'll see a top-tier rainy season anything like that ever again. (other examples being 1997-98, 1982-83, 1977-78)

 

I wonder - a vaguely weak El Nino pattern has established itself in the equatorial Pacific region this winter (official as of today); could this be our first El Nino in over a decade to actually deliver, even partially?

 

My precipitation charts for 2017-18 and 2018-19 as of today. Compare the total absence of activity during most of 2017-18 to the vibrant activity in 2018-19 so far:

 

[Dan the Weatherman]

I received 3.29" here in Orange from the storm on Wednesday / Thursday. The AR really delivered some serious rains to most of Orange County, especially in areas in and near the Santa Ana Mountains where orographic lifting was in full force.

[Reg]

Rain has resumed here about an hour ago (I was caught in it driving). 0.03"

[Reg]

0.09" now. Another line of showers is approaching Orange County right now, maybe we'll hear from Mr Marine Layer and Dan about it:

 

[Dan the Weatherman]

It has been raining lightly here in Orange since just before dark with some moderate bursts mixed in. It has stopped now, though, and is likely done for tonight, unless a few showers on the Central Coast make it down into the area in the early morning hours.

[Reg]

That same band of rain that affected Orange County earlier just passed over us, but barely did anything. I got 0.01" from it.

 

I noticed that a lot of the NWS weather stations around Southern California that broke daily precipitation records on Thursday, the old record for that day was usually set on the same day in 1980. I went back and checked Downtown L.A.'s precipitation for that year and 1979-80 was quite wet. Nine consecutive days of rain, most of them very wet. Talk about your "atmospheric river":

 

[Anti Marine Layer]

Lots more sunshine today giving things a chance to temporarily dry off.

[Reg]

I expect rain to arrive here around or just after midnight.

[Dan the Weatherman]

0.19" fell here in Orange with the little storm that came through yesterday (Friday).

 

The air quality was quite spectacular today with all the recent storms, and it was the sunniest day we have had in a while!

[Anti Marine Layer]

During our drought with the very warm winters, the polar vortex split was over the eastern half of the country. This year it has finally been focused on the western half of the country.

 

No rain overnight from the 2nd wave and it is still pretty nice outside before the 3rd wave comes through this afternoon and tonight.

[Reg]

We didn't get any rain last night nor this morning, but rain has finally started as of 10 minutes ago.