Jump to content

PNW March 2023 Weather Discussion (2012 Redux)


Requiem

Recommended Posts

38 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

@MossMan Friday morning on every ECMWF run.

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-snow_6hr-7862800.png

Wow that has been such a consistent feature, looking good!! 
 

36 and move in Wenatchee! The parking lot snow mound is completely gone now that I have been following since early January. 🤣

C69D2A75-3FDE-4688-A632-6307158CBBF4.jpeg

39193FE9-6384-4DDC-8286-FF60AC438729.jpeg

Edited by MossMan
  • Like 1

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Nice day.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Probable some offshore flow son.

DPs were right around freezing when I checked. Either way it’ll have to fall just at the right time for it to work. I just don’t have much faith after yesterday morning but it’s possible. Was just 3 years ago in mid March there was a decent snow event down south. And less than a year ago they had one in mid April.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Avalanche outside Palm Springs. 

68B63369-86B5-4030-88F9-E22748B877E6.jpeg

  • Like 5
  • Excited 1
  • scream 1
  • Shivering 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Pattern change on the 12Z ECMWF... might be the effects of MJO phase 8 coming into view now.

ecmwf-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-1677672000-1677672000-1678536000-10.gif

Just like in December when we had the "pattern change." It looks like a ridge and Tim gets excited. But its warm front rain! 

prateptype_cat_ecmwf-imp.us_nw.png

  • Like 2

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, SouthHillFrosty said:

Could be a nice little event for Oregon! 

1FB721F3-5E7F-43D2-A001-E9AC901EF279.png

96DC57BF-20C0-44A4-A355-926B58DC88CD.png

Blessed life, best life. 

  • Snow 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Just like in December when we had the "pattern change." It looks like a ridge and Tim gets excited. But its warm front rain! 

prateptype_cat_ecmwf-imp.us_nw.png

Dude... I have zero expectations of nice weather in March.   I fully expect zonal flow and lots of rain as I have mentioned numerous times.   But it is a definite pattern change.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, Slushy Inch said:

Kind of surprised we only warm to 50 degrees with that ridge. Maybe because it’s transient.

Probably because it quickly turns wet.    Might be time to make up precip departures.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Avalanche outside Palm Springs. 

68B63369-86B5-4030-88F9-E22748B877E6.jpeg

Hardly the first time this has happened. I drove the Angeles Crest Highway once, and one thing that surprised me was coming on an area of avalanche chutes that even then in late summer still had some compacted snow in them. The mountains in that part of Southern California can be very steep, and in the years that enough snow falls, can and do get avalanches.

  • Like 3
It's called clown range for a reason.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, Slushy Inch said:

Wow I thought it was a warm and sunny ridge. Max of 50 degrees though.

There is nothing about that pattern that would be warm and sunny... you can see the jet stream quickly plowing in to the west.

  • Like 1

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Got down to 25 this morning. Euro still keep showing snow chances but with how this week has gone so far with snow I’m not feeling too optimistic about them.

2023 - 2024 Cold Season Stats

Total Snowfall - 0.75”

Max Snow Depth - 0.5”

Coldest High Temp - 21 (Jan 13)

Coldest Low Temp - 9 (Jan 13)

Number of Freezes - 48

Sub-40 highs - 12

Highs 32 or lower - 3

Link to comment
Share on other sites

31 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Shooped.

There were multiple witnesses and photos taken, and there was an avalanche rescue in that same general area in 2020.

https://www.desertsun.com/story/weather/2023/02/27/southern-california-blizzard-avalanche-on-mountain-above-palm-springs/69951295007/

It's called clown range for a reason.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Looks like Silver Falls is sitting at 31.5 at noon. Mid to upper 30s seems like a good bet at home today. Still a little snow hanging on here in the shade at the office in Salem. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12Z EPS also shows the pattern change... seems inevitable at this point.     Surprisingly not that wet though.    At least not yet.

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-1677672000-1677672000-1678968000-10.gif

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-qpf_anom_15day-8968000.png

  • Like 1

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Cold likely to be centered in the east by mid-March.   Phil might be right about winter finally making an appearance there in spring this year.

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-t850_anom_stream-8968000.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z EPS also shows the pattern change... seems inevitable at this point.     Surprisingly not that wet though.    At least not yet.

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-1677672000-1677672000-1678968000-10.gif

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-qpf_anom_15day-8968000.png

The Thursday-Saturday period may be mildly interesting, but the pattern much of next week looks pretty boring. Maybe some afternoon snow showers over the higher terrain, generally cool, probably a lot of frost/freezes for places that get clearing, and decently pleasant afternoons, though highs will probably be on the coolish side. 

  • Like 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Cold likely to be centered in the east by mid-March.   Phil might be right about winter finally making an appearance there in spring this year.

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-t850_anom_stream-8968000.png

I do think it will be transitory and troughing will end up back out west by the end of the month. 

  • Like 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

The Thursday-Saturday period may be mildly interesting, but the pattern much of next week looks pretty boring. Maybe some afternoon snow showers over the higher terrain, generally cool, probably a lot of frost/freezes for places that get clearing, and decently pleasant afternoons, though highs will probably be on the coolish side. 

Sounds like a blessing Andrew. Last few weeks have been a blessing after a nasty period from late December to mid January. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, TacomaWx said:

Sounds like a blessing Andrew. Last few weeks have been a blessing after a nasty period from late December to mid January. 

I think we will have a nice spring. Plenty of blessings for all, sun for Tim, frost for Jim, rain for Jesse. 

  • Like 2

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I think we will have a nice spring. Plenty of blessings for all, sun for Tim, frost for Jim, rain for Jesse. 

Besides things being dry overall…since November we’ve stayed on the cool side of average and mountain snowfall hasn’t been terrible. The only really lame period so far this winter was from right after Christmas until about January 20th. I’m sure we will make up for the dry winter in the next few weeks though. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Unfortunately, your content contains terms that we do not allow. Please edit your content to remove the highlighted words below.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Popular Contributors

  • Activity Stream

    1. 373

      March 2024 Observations and Discussion

    2. 0

      March 31st - April 2nd Potent Plains Storm

    3. 373

      March 2024 Observations and Discussion

    4. 5703

      March 2024 Weather in the PNW

    5. 5703

      March 2024 Weather in the PNW

×
×
  • Create New...