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PNW March 2023 Weather Discussion (2012 Redux)


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Just now, T-Town said:

Prepare the Streetlight of Disappointment. 

No matter how much pain and emotional damage it causes me I’ll probably still be streetlight watching Friday night 😂

 I really don’t expect much from this round…but it’s not impossible to get snow this late in the year. Just because Tuesday morning busted hard doesn’t necessarily mean this one will but my expectations are low. 

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1 minute ago, TacomaWx said:

No matter how much pain and emotional damage it causes me I’ll probably still be streetlight watching Friday night 😂

 I really don’t expect much from this round…but it’s not impossible to get snow this late in the year. Just because Tuesday morning busted hard doesn’t necessarily mean this one will but my expectations are low. 

Yeah, me too. 

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21 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

No matter how much pain and emotional damage it causes me I’ll probably still be streetlight watching Friday night 😂

 I really don’t expect much from this round…but it’s not impossible to get snow this late in the year. Just because Tuesday morning busted hard doesn’t necessarily mean this one will but my expectations are low. 

I'm excited about Friday night because I know how good that pattern can deliver here if it's just right. I'm actually thinking there might be snow tonight out here. 37 with a 33 dewpoint already.

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We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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Just got home…I am shocked with how little snow I lost today, looks like only the new snow from this morning went away. I love coming home to paradise!! 

0F7022FE-6262-4F29-8613-62AE878FBE54.jpeg

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D3683DBD-105B-460F-9E02-B64E47E26F1F.jpeg

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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22 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

I'm excited about Friday night because I know how good that pattern can deliver here if it's just right. I'm actually thinking there might be snow tonight out here. 37 with a 33 dewpoint already.

Gfs has been incredibly consistent with tonight’s system for about a week now.  Probably looking at 300-500ft snow levels for a time in some of the favoured locations, such as yours.  
 

Precip is on the doorstep here and you can see on the hillsides, the snow level is probably 1000-1500ft. 

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I told myself I wasn’t gonna get sucked in again but I’ve slowly been watching that area of snow from Randy’s CZ Friday morning expand slowly and slowly southward.. (but still centered over him of course) I’m ready to get hurt again!!

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(Previous name: MillCreekMike)

Everett, WA (elev. 180’)

2023-2024 Snowfall:

1/11: Tr.

1/18: Tr.

Go M’s

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3 minutes ago, MillCreekMike said:

I told myself I wasn’t gonna get sucked in again but I’ve slowly been watching that area of snow from Randy’s CZ Friday morning expand slowly and slowly southward.. (but still centered over him of course) I’m ready to get hurt again!!

I have had multiple surprises over the last week or so…You might end up with one as well! 

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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8 minutes ago, MillCreekMike said:

I told myself I wasn’t gonna get sucked in again but I’ve slowly been watching that area of snow from Randy’s CZ Friday morning expand slowly and slowly southward.. (but still centered over him of course) I’m ready to get hurt again!!

Yep

 

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5 minutes ago, MossMan said:

I have had multiple surprises over the last week or so…You might end up with one as well! 

I think I might’ve had my surprise luck yesterday but we will see! Yesterday is gonna go down in history to me as one of the biggest missed opportunities ever as we had a CZ parked right smack over Everett for about 8 hours with moderate precip rates the whole time only to end up amounting to an inch of snow on grassy surfaces. Could’ve been an amazing event if it was a little colder.

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(Previous name: MillCreekMike)

Everett, WA (elev. 180’)

2023-2024 Snowfall:

1/11: Tr.

1/18: Tr.

Go M’s

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The 18z ECMWF is closer to being real with that snow situation Friday night.  925mb temps are pretty much there for supporting snow and precip intensities in the South / Central Puget Sound area are shown to be pretty good.  Might be our last shot to get something.  We're due for a good break in this area.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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8 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

One weak ago right now it was SNOWING outside.

Was it weak?

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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30.9. 
 

35/26 today. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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I have a couple of interesting tidbits.

One is I'm pretty confident this will go down as the coldest Nov - Feb of the century so far for the Puget Sound Lowlands.  According to an analysis site I use the Nov - Feb average for the PSL should end up the lowest since 1992-93.

Second...today was the 8th consecutive day to have a freezing min for SEA.  That is flat out impressive for this late in the season.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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5 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The 18z ECMWF is closer to being real with that snow situation Friday night.  925mb temps are pretty much there for supporting snow and precip intensities in the South / Central Puget Sound area are shown to be pretty good.  Might be our last shot to get something.  We're due for a good break in this area.

It’s gonna be close! The biggest problem with Tuesday morning was precipitation south of Everett. For now…it doesn’t appear to be an issue. Hopefully we don’t see a dramatic pullback like we did less than 24 hours before the Tuesday morning snow. Looking back at this winter, atleast here this winter featured a couple big missed opportunities for big snowfalls. However we took advantage of or exceeded expectations with quite a few smaller or marginal events. 

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1 hour ago, TacomaWx said:

No matter how much pain and emotional damage it causes me I’ll probably still be streetlight watching Friday night 😂

 I really don’t expect much from this round…but it’s not impossible to get snow this late in the year. Just because Tuesday morning busted hard doesn’t necessarily mean this one will but my expectations are low. 

Yesterday flat out pissed me off.  So much potential and it fell flat on its face.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 minute ago, TacomaWx said:

It’s gonna be close! The biggest problem with Tuesday morning was precipitation south of Everett. For now…it doesn’t appear to be an issue. Hopefully we don’t see a dramatic pullback like we did less than 24 hours before the Tuesday morning snow. Looking back at this winter, atleast here this winter featured a couple big missed opportunities for big snowfalls. However we took advantage of or exceeded expectations with quite a few smaller or marginal events. 

I'm going to have to think long and hard about the grade I give this winter.  Some aspects have been quite impressive in spite of some disappointments with snowfall.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Yesterday flat out pissed me off.  So much potential and it fell flat on its face.

Glad to have you back, Jim! 

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Yesterday flat out pissed me off.  So much potential and it fell flat on its face.

Definitely a disappointment. A couple of the models showed a last minute uptick for the projected snowfall here…only to just end up with a few wet flakes mixed early in the evening and by the time it was cold enough no precipitation. That was a big swing and miss. 

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Temp at 35.5, DP 33.2.

39/27 on the day. 

My dogs when I tell them to come in the house when there is snow on the ground. 

03E1889C-18A7-4D84-B72C-260F4189899A.jpeg

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Edited by MossMan
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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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10 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I'm going to have to think long and hard about the grade I give this winter.  Some aspects have been quite impressive in spite of some disappointments with snowfall.

Take your time.   There is so much riding on this grade.   The world is waiting but its extremely important to get it perfectly right.    😀

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 minute ago, TacomaWx said:

Your dogs might like snow even more than you do 

They absolutely love it!! 

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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Just looking at SEA Nov - Feb handily came in colder than 2008-09 or 2016-17.  The cold November made all the difference in the world.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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15 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I'm going to have to think long and hard about the grade I give this winter.  Some aspects have been quite impressive in spite of some disappointments with snowfall.

I'm not really even thinking about giving it a grade at all. I'd have to pick a location first off since I was in Tigard and not Corvallis for that little sleet thing in December.

Also I don't really know how to assign a grade to this recent stretch down here. It's been like February 2019 in Tigard/Beaverton, consistently cold with lots of marginal dustings and near-misses but no actual big snows. Feel like I have to acknowledge the places that have scored big even if my backyard didn't.

 

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Just now, snow_wizard said:

Just looking at SEA Nov - Feb handily came in colder than 2008-09 or 2016-17.  The cold November made all the difference in the world.

Surprisingly 2011-2012 is the coldest Nov-Feb there this century. For PDX, 2013/2014 and 2016/2017 are the coldest this century. 2016/2017 is surprising because that November was a huge torch, DJF were just very cold.

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10 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Glad to have you back, Jim! 

Thanks!  

The short bursts of extreme weenieism are the balance to my usual optimism.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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I'd probably give this winter a B+ because of the really great late Feb blast here. First we had the cold November, then the cool December with arctic blast toward the end. Experiencing that in Denver was really amazing. Then we had the small cold wave in late January, some snow in mid February and then of course the snowstorm in late February. That snowstorm was really amazing, a full on blizzard at times, with a subfreezing high and ground blizzard, which is incredible especially for late February. Last few days have been nice with snow in the air at times.

Not a crazy amount of snow total, only around 7-9" I'm guessing but most of it fell in a great storm.

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Take your time.   There is so much riding on this grade.   The world is waiting but its extremely important to get it perfectly right.    😀

Think I am pretty firmed up with an A-! 
November was an A with snow at the beginning and end of the month plus a monster west windstorm and a few other windstorms

December was a A- with snow at the beginning of the month and the BIG chill with snow before Christmas. Would have been nice to have that during Christmas so the score dropped slightly. 
January was a D- The only thing that prevented the F was the snow at the very end of the month. 
February was an A with snow once again at the beginning and the end of the month, along with another lovely west wind event! 

 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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15 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Temp at 35.5, DP 33.2.

39/27 on the day. 

My dogs when I tell them to come in the house when there is snow on the ground. 

03E1889C-18A7-4D84-B72C-260F4189899A.jpeg

652001EE-7DFD-40BA-BDFD-79327A49934B.jpeg

I think it's ridiculously ironic my low actually came in colder than yours last night.  A very chilly 25.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I think it's ridiculously ironic my low actually came in colder than yours last night.  A very chilly 25.

I think it would have gone lower but it clouded up and snowed early this morning. 

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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