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PNW March 2023 Weather Discussion (2012 Redux)


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1 minute ago, Phil said:

El Niño a cometh. This almost looks 1997-ish with how far east those westerly anomalies are.

Big time stuff, verbatim.

FA69BAA0-96D6-4A08-B739-0EFF853E7AA4.jpeg

Super Niños have had some good stuff for us before. 1972/1973 had the major arctic blast in December then a smaller one in January. 1997/1998 gave us a snowstorm in January. 2015/2016 was at least very wet in December and there was some cold in late November and early January, not a total boring winter. 1982/1983 and 1957/58 were terrible though

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1 minute ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

70 is probably close to physically impossible for the western lowlands in January. Even a massive ridge with warm to very warm upper levels would produce an inversion at the surface. January 2009 had a good example of this.

In order for it to even be close it would have to be an active pattern with a dynamic warm front lifting north over the area and mixing things out with  SSW winds and a warm subtropical airmass in its wake, maybe even some sunbreaks. That kind of setup pushed PDX to its January record of 66 in 2005. 

Pretty crazy that Laurel Mountain at 3600' hit 78 degrees that month above the inversion. And that was with a 15" snow depth at the same time

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The SSW definitely did its job w/rt MC invigoration. Complete (intraseasonal) destruction of the low frequency/niña background circulation in the tropics.

Upcoming phase-8 MJO is absolutely bonkers.

 

C7726F2A-79E0-46D7-8718-C078058D447C.png

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1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

So my understanding is that the big red blob at the bottom indicates a complete trade wind reversal coming up... its the opposite of what has been happening for the last year.    I don't understand the mechanics but I am certain it means we are rapidly heading towards a Nino.    And our 3-year Nina is officially dead.  

Way too soon to be calling for a Nino.  Neural is still very much on the table.  Historically speaking we haven't had a Nino in the modern era when the MEI and ENSO is still this low this deep into the year.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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2 minutes ago, Phil said:

The SSW definitely did its job w/rt MC invigoration. Complete (intraseasonal) destruction of the low frequency/niña background circulation in the tropics.

Upcoming phase-8 MJO is absolutely bonkers.

 

C7726F2A-79E0-46D7-8718-C078058D447C.png

The big question is what will happen after the big wave in 8.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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8 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

70 is probably close to physically impossible for the western lowlands in January. Even a massive ridge with warm to very warm upper levels would produce an inversion at the surface. January 2009 had a good example of this.

In order for it to even be close it would have to be an active pattern with a dynamic warm front lifting north over the area and mixing things out with  SSW winds and a warm subtropical airmass in its wake, maybe even some sunbreaks. That kind of setup pushed PDX to its January record of 66 in 2005. 

Pffft, 70˚F in January is a smaller positive departure than is 113˚F in June.

Easily achievable in our new climate.

It's called clown range for a reason.

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5 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The big question is what will happen after the big wave in 8.

Will probably re-enter the IO but damage will probably be done by that point. Downwelling OKW will have been triggered and base state likely won’t return with the same vigor (talking about the tropics, not your backyard).

Timing of -QBO descent also fits w/ increasingly +ENSO theme as the year rolls on. Neutral/warm neutral is probably the coolest possible ENSO next winter, IMO.

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21 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Way too soon to be calling for a Nino.  Neural is still very much on the table.  Historically speaking we haven't had a Nino in the modern era when the MEI and ENSO is still this low this deep into the year.

I would love to avoid a strong Nino.   Warm neutral would be great.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Time to think about Rosby Waves. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Kind of interesting the GFS is showing pretty much the same thing Saturday night that the ECMWF has been showing Friday night for lowland snow potential.  Little question there will be a serious threat of lowland snow sometime in the Friday to Sunday time frame.  How that low digs off the coast is going to be crucial for placement.

On another note...Arctic air over BC comes dangerously close to entering northern WA this weekend.  Decent chance there will be some bleeding of cold air into the North Interior as surface gradients become N to NE over at least the northern half of the state.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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23 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Some really cold lows in South Central OR this morning. Klamath Marsh RAWS got down to -12f. US97 NB at Sand Creek got down to -18f

And not even a real Arctic outbreak.  Impressive.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I would love to avoid a strong Nino.   Warm neutral would be great.  

Yes indeed.  I think warm neutral is actually one of the best ENSO states for giving a high chance of a relatively enjoyable winter.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Kind of interesting the GFS is showing pretty much the same thing Saturday night that the ECMWF has been showing Friday night for lowland snow potential.  Little question there will be a serious threat of lowland snow sometime in the Friday to Sunday time frame.  How that low digs off the coast is going to be crucial for placement.

On another note...Arctic air over BC comes dangerously close to entering northern WA this weekend.  Decent chance there will be some bleeding of cold air into the North Interior as surface gradients become N to NE over at least the northern half of the state.

This looks pretty great if it was earlier, multiple systems overriding the cold air. Just a bit too warm
gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_41.png

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25 minutes ago, Phil said:

Will probably re-enter the IO but damage will probably be done by that point. Downwelling OKW will have been triggered and base state likely won’t return with the same vigor (talking about the tropics, not your backyard).

Timing of -QBO descent also fits w/ increasingly +ENSO theme as the year rolls on. Neutral/warm neutral is probably the coolest possible ENSO next winter, IMO.

An interesting thing to watch will be if we have a mid year ENSO spike and then some falling back after that.  We have seen that theme very often in recent years.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Looks like YYJ is at 82.4 cm (32.4") of snow for the season. Out here in Victoria proper I'm sitting at 28.3" on the season. Over half of this fell between Dec 19 ~22nd. Looks like there were 5 sub-freezing highs at YYJ, while there were 6 of them here, but a lot more highs of 36F or less. Overall, I'd give this winter an A- for this location, almost entirely down to the December event. I'm betting many places up toward Nanaimo are pushing 50"+ on the season. Not expecting anything eventful snow-wise in Victoria this month. The March dynamics probably favor PSCZ areas more, I wouldn't be surprised if the Seattle gets a few big dumps this month.

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And SEA begins March with a nice phat -8 departure.  Amazing that we have at least another week of cold to go.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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It appears the GOA ridge is trying to make a comeback at the end of GFS run after a brief collapse.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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The precip deficits are actually starting to become considerable for Seattle.  It will be interesting to see if that continues this month.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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The ECMWF is even more bullish for Friday night than previous runs.  The numbers seem to be cold enough if precip intensity is decent.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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26 minutes ago, Winterdog said:

Got a mix going here now as well. 

Pretty cold air mass.  It has dropped to 37 here, but precip is pretty light.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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5 minutes ago, SnowWillarrive said:

Basically all the areas that were supposed to get snow Tuesday. 

Maybe we'll get the precip intensity this time.  Slightly different situation than Tuesday.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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The ECMWF is showing a remarkably cold weekend coming up.  Could be interesting.  

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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3 minutes ago, SnowWillarrive said:

Yea I’m not holding my breath. Within 24 hours it will be confined to Mossman and Ludicrous. 

The good thing about this one is no surface low moves inland to cause a south wind burst.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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