PNW March 2023 Weather Discussion (2012 Redux)

[SouthHillFrosty]

Actually looks like a very very light trace of snow on the dirt…… March for the win

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Gfs shows another heavy thump of snow around the canal Friday morning. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Currently light snow here at home and 34 degrees 

[BLI snowman]

11 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Nice run of sub-50 highs mtd for here and PDX. We’ll see if it can last through the work week.

Historically it's pretty tough to go too far into March without reaching 50 there. 2019 pulled it off through the 8th but otherwise you have to go back to 1951, which did it through the 12th. 

[SnarkyGoblin]

 

Elon comin' in hot 

[Anti Marine Layer]

Warming up

[Cascadia_Wx]

4 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Historically it's pretty tough to go too far into March without reaching 50 there. 2019 pulled it off through the 8th but otherwise you have to go back to 1951, which did it through the 12th. 

I was thinking it’s probably rare. Tying or beating the 2019 stretch could be in play but 1951 might be harder. Seems like there could be a mostly clear day at some point this weekend or early next week which is really all it takes at this point, even with a cold upper level airmass.

[TT-SEA]

15 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Gfs shows another heavy thump of snow around the canal Friday morning. 

Yeah... that is the next big opportunity our that way.   

[SnarkyGoblin]

3 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

Warming up

I can't imagine having that much snow and not going above freezing for so long.

Those road snow tunnels you see in videos are insane.  I wonder if there's any risk of the tops falling back onto the road with a fast warmup.

[BLI snowman]

5 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

I was thinking it’s probably rare. Tying or beating the 2019 stretch could be in play but 1951 might be harder. Seems like there could be a mostly clear day at some point this weekend or early next week which is really all it takes at this point, even with a cold upper level airmass.

Even today it wouldn't shock me if they snuck up to 50, although I think they'll fall a bit short. That's still a solidly cool day for them right now.

[TT-SEA]

March sun angle doing its thing... already in the low to mid 40s out here.  44 in North Bend and barely a cloud in the sky. 

[ShawniganLake]

19 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Gfs shows another heavy thump of snow around the canal Friday morning. 

Big snow potential up here with that. ICON and GEM also showing 4”+. Should push my season total past 60”. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

7 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Even today it wouldn't shock me if they snuck up to 50, although I think they'll fall a bit short. That's still a solidly cool day for them right now.

Yeah the only real lock for sub-50 stuff looks like the late week period. Today through Wednesday will come down to timing since they could pull it off with enough sunbreaks.

[Cloud]

6 moar dayz until 7pm sunset! 

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

18 minutes ago, Cloud said:

6 moar dayz until 7pm sunset! 

I can't wait. I LOVE summer here. 

[Anti Marine Layer]

21 minutes ago, Cloud said:

6 moar dayz until 7pm sunset! 

Early November our average high is in the low 70s and the sun sets before 5 PM. Mid-March we get record cold and rain with highs struggling to reach 60 some days and the sun sets at 7 pm. Very logical.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

Early November our average high is in the low 70s and the sun sets before 5 PM. Mid-March we get record cold and rain and the sun sets at 7 pm. Very logical.

Seasonal lag.

[Anti Marine Layer]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Seasonal lag.

Not many places in the Northern Hemisphere where October is warmer than May and June.

Climate data for Los Angeles (USC, Downtown), 1991–2020 normals, extremes 1877–present
Month	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Year
Record high °F (°C)	95 (35)	95 (35)	99 (37)	106 (41)	103 (39)	112 (44)	109 (43)	106 (41)	113 (45)	108 (42)	100 (38)	92 (33)	113 (45)
Mean maximum °F (°C)	83.0 (28.3)	82.8 (28.2)	85.8 (29.9)	90.1 (32.3)	88.9 (31.6)	89.1 (31.7)	93.5 (34.2)	95.2 (35.1)	99.4 (37.4)	95.7 (35.4)	88.9 (31.6)	81.0 (27.2)	101.5 (38.6)
Average high °F (°C)	68.0 (20.0)	68.0 (20.0)	69.9 (21.1)	72.4 (22.4)	73.7 (23.2)	77.2 (25.1)	82.0 (27.8)	84.0 (28.9)	83.0 (28.3)	78.6 (25.9)	72.9 (22.7)	67.4 (19.7)	74.8 (23.8)
Daily mean °F (°C)	58.4 (14.7)	59.0 (15.0)	61.1 (16.2)	63.6 (17.6)	65.9 (18.8)	69.3 (20.7)	73.3 (22.9)	74.7 (23.7)	73.6 (23.1)	69.3 (20.7)	63.0 (17.2)	57.8 (14.3)	65.8 (18.8)
Average low °F (°C)	48.9 (9.4)	50.0 (10.0)	52.4 (11.3)	54.8 (12.7)	58.1 (14.5)	61.4 (16.3)	64.7 (18.2)	65.4 (18.6)	64.2 (17.9)	59.9 (15.5)	53.1 (11.7)	48.2 (9.0)	56.8 (13.8)
Mean minimum °F (°C)	41.4 (5.2)	42.9 (6.1)	45.4 (7.4)	48.9 (9.4)	53.5 (11.9)	57.4 (14.1)	61.1 (16.2)	61.7 (16.5)	59.1 (15.1)	53.7 (12.1)	45.4 (7.4)	40.5 (4.7)	39.2 (4.0)
Record low °F (°C)	28 (−2)	28 (−2)	31 (−1)	36 (2)	40 (4)	46 (8)	49 (9)	49 (9)	44 (7)	40 (4)	34 (1)	30 (−1)	28 (−2)
Average rainfall inches (mm)	3.29 (84)	3.64 (92)	2.23 (57)	0.69 (18)	0.32 (8.1)	0.09 (2.3)	0.02 (0.51)	0.00 (0.00)	0.13 (3.3)	0.58 (15)	0.78 (20)	2.48 (63)	14.25 (362)
Average rainy days (≥ 0.01 in)	6.1	6.3	5.1	2.8	1.9	0.5	0.4	0.1	0.4	2.2	2.8	5.5	34.1
Mean monthly sunshine hours	225.3	222.5	267.0	303.5	276.2	275.8	364.1	349.5	278.5	255.1	217.3	219.4	3,254.2
Percent possible sunshine	71	72	72	78	64	64	83	84	75	73	70	71	73

[LowerGarfield]

2 hours ago, MossMan said:

32 with an icy deck. 
Anyway…Too bad we didn’t have a 2019 or 2017 repeat last night/this morning. 

You have the perfect last name for a snow lover.

[LowerGarfield]

22 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

Not many places in the Northern Hemisphere where October is warmer than May and June.

Climate data for Los Angeles (USC, Downtown), 1991–2020 normals, extremes 1877–present
Month	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Year
Record high °F (°C)	95 (35)	95 (35)	99 (37)	106 (41)	103 (39)	112 (44)	109 (43)	106 (41)	113 (45)	108 (42)	100 (38)	92 (33)	113 (45)
Mean maximum °F (°C)	83.0 (28.3)	82.8 (28.2)	85.8 (29.9)	90.1 (32.3)	88.9 (31.6)	89.1 (31.7)	93.5 (34.2)	95.2 (35.1)	99.4 (37.4)	95.7 (35.4)	88.9 (31.6)	81.0 (27.2)	101.5 (38.6)
Average high °F (°C)	68.0 (20.0)	68.0 (20.0)	69.9 (21.1)	72.4 (22.4)	73.7 (23.2)	77.2 (25.1)	82.0 (27.8)	84.0 (28.9)	83.0 (28.3)	78.6 (25.9)	72.9 (22.7)	67.4 (19.7)	74.8 (23.8)
Daily mean °F (°C)	58.4 (14.7)	59.0 (15.0)	61.1 (16.2)	63.6 (17.6)	65.9 (18.8)	69.3 (20.7)	73.3 (22.9)	74.7 (23.7)	73.6 (23.1)	69.3 (20.7)	63.0 (17.2)	57.8 (14.3)	65.8 (18.8)
Average low °F (°C)	48.9 (9.4)	50.0 (10.0)	52.4 (11.3)	54.8 (12.7)	58.1 (14.5)	61.4 (16.3)	64.7 (18.2)	65.4 (18.6)	64.2 (17.9)	59.9 (15.5)	53.1 (11.7)	48.2 (9.0)	56.8 (13.8)
Mean minimum °F (°C)	41.4 (5.2)	42.9 (6.1)	45.4 (7.4)	48.9 (9.4)	53.5 (11.9)	57.4 (14.1)	61.1 (16.2)	61.7 (16.5)	59.1 (15.1)	53.7 (12.1)	45.4 (7.4)	40.5 (4.7)	39.2 (4.0)
Record low °F (°C)	28 (−2)	28 (−2)	31 (−1)	36 (2)	40 (4)	46 (8)	49 (9)	49 (9)	44 (7)	40 (4)	34 (1)	30 (−1)	28 (−2)
Average rainfall inches (mm)	3.29 (84)	3.64 (92)	2.23 (57)	0.69 (18)	0.32 (8.1)	0.09 (2.3)	0.02 (0.51)	0.00 (0.00)	0.13 (3.3)	0.58 (15)	0.78 (20)	2.48 (63)	14.25 (362)
Average rainy days (≥ 0.01 in)	6.1	6.3	5.1	2.8	1.9	0.5	0.4	0.1	0.4	2.2	2.8	5.5	34.1
Mean monthly sunshine hours	225.3	222.5	267.0	303.5	276.2	275.8	364.1	349.5	278.5	255.1	217.3	219.4	3,254.2
Percent possible sunshine	71	72	72	78	64	64	83	84	75	73	70	71	73

In NorCal Sept and Oct are the warmest months. The fog doesn't roll through as much and you get the diablo winds (Santa Annas in Socal).

[Winterdog]

Another freeze for KSEA... number 40 I believe.  I had a low of 31F this morning for my 64th freeze which is about average into March but I'm guessing KSEA is well above average for freezes.  Ciurrently 42F and mostly sunny.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

14 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

I'm still not convinced we are going to have a Nino.  A lot to be proven still.

Stage one: denial.

[Front Ranger]

4 hours ago, Phil said:

Effectively conveys the limited predictive power of linear indices (like ENSO/etc) in isolation. Both last winter and this winter fit conventional “La Niña” description, but marked spatial/off-domain differences still exist.

Yes...although when it comes to national temps, the last 2 winters have fit the general Nina mold pretty well.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

42 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Seasonal lag.

It seems much more pronounced in California than it does here.

It is A LOT more difficult to get lowland snow here in March than it is in January. Yet in the two winters I lived in the SF Bay Area, it was common for some of the chilliest days to come in March.

[Anti Marine Layer]

1 hour ago, SnarkyGoblin said:

I can't imagine having that much snow and not going above freezing for so long.

Those road snow tunnels you see in videos are insane.  I wonder if there's any risk of the tops falling back onto the road with a fast warmup.

It could happen. Avalanche weather.

[Front Ranger]

11 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

It seems much more pronounced in California than it does here.

It is A LOT more difficult to get lowland snow here in March than it is in January. Yet in the two winters I lived in the SF Bay Area, it was common for some of the chilliest days to come in March.

Sample size could be problematic here...

[Deweydog]

14 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Sample size could be problematic here...

Cosmo says size doesn’t matter.

[Phil]

41 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Yes...although when it comes to national temps, the last 2 winters have fit the general Nina mold pretty well.

True, although there are many winters where that was not the case. Likewise with Niños. And that ENSO mold is state dependent/changes over time, for a myriad of reasons.

[Omegaraptor]

34 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Sample size could be problematic here...

Since the winter of 2017-18 PDX has received more snow in both March and April than January…

[BLI snowman]

1 hour ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

It seems much more pronounced in California than it does here.

It is A LOT more difficult to get lowland snow here in March than it is in January. Yet in the two winters I lived in the SF Bay Area, it was common for some of the chilliest days to come in March.

More of a coastal vs. inland thing than a latitude dynamic.

The interior valleys and deserts of CA experience seasonality very similar to the inland valleys and deserts in the PNW. And just like up here, the areas near the coast are very influenced by inversions from the seasonal currents in the summer, and conversely are less reliant on inversions to see their coldest weather in the winter months.

Edited March 6, 2023 by BLI snowman

[TT-SEA]

12Z EPS... more craziness for the Sierras and sort of dull up here.

[ShawniganLake]

WRF has that late week system pounding SE Vancouver Island with a good 6-12” of snow. 
 

 

[SouthHillFrosty]

45 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z EPS... more craziness for the Sierras and sort of dull up here.

Wow……. That is getting crazy down there. REI is probably sold out of rain jackets down there.

[MossMan]

Deck pile update! And the last of the non pile snow is almost gone. Temp up to 47 currently. 

[Phishy Wx]

watched as my ring camera picked up about 3" of unexpected snow at my place this morning.  sitting in CLT airport were it 77 degrees about to head back west.  Pollen is terrible here too.

[MossMan]

10 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

watched as my ring camera picked up about 3" of unexpected snow at my place this morning.  sitting in CLT airport were it 77 degrees about to head back west.  Pollen is terrible here too.

I heard the pollen was so bad that many people back there were panicking and calling 911 not knowing what all of the powdery substance was that was thickly coating everything!  

[Phishy Wx]

4 minutes ago, MossMan said:

I heard the pollen was so bad that many people back there were panicking and calling 911 not knowing what all of the powdery substance was that was thickly coating everything!  

This is from a flight over Myrtle Beach SC. (not my picture)

 

[AlTahoe]

4 hours ago, SnarkyGoblin said:

I can't imagine having that much snow and not going above freezing for so long.

Those road snow tunnels you see in videos are insane.  I wonder if there's any risk of the tops falling back onto the road with a fast warmup.

Models are also showing 3-7" of rain for us in the next 10 days. Gonna be a nightmare up here. 

[Blizzard777]

Got down to 29 this morning and currently a warm 48*

During my walk earlier under blue skies it sprinkled (sun shower) on me for about 3 minutes.  So fascinating when it does that !! 

[AlTahoe]

12 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

This is from a flight over Myrtle Beach SC. (not my picture)

 

We get that in Tahoe but it is in late May to early June.