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PNW March 2023 Weather Discussion (2012 Redux)


Requiem

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Probably... but the lowland snow in SW WA is primarily late Thursday night into Friday morning. 

Phantom snow below 1000'. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Phantom snow below 1000'. 

Snow level will be even higher than that up here on Friday during the day when the main batch of precip moves through.   I don't expect much of anything in my area.   ECMWF and GFS show temps well into the 40s during the day on Friday even out here.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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We did pick up a light dusting this morning. Six straight days of sticking snow. 

March 2: 0.3

March 3: 0.8

March 4: 2.7

March 5: 2.2

March 6: 4.4

March 7: 0.1

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  • Snow 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Tomorrow morning looks like a good chance for snow down in Medford. 

  • Snow 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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42 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Another sunny morning... but will probably have clouds building up later.

20230307_075009.jpg

Live look from the kitchen window. 

5E021ABE-7DDD-469F-BD17-6C42A38A47A0.jpeg

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  • Snow 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Niño 3.4 might actually flirt with positive territory before the end of the month. Probably won’t stay that high given subsequent MJO transit into E-Hem, but there’s no sign of a niña standing wave on the latest EPS weeklies, so forcing should continue to propagate thereafter.

B15A78A4-CD08-4EAB-8AD0-8B55104907E0.png

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At least this doesn’t look like a repeat of March 2012. Would be grateful to put that horrible analog in the rear view mirror.

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4 minutes ago, Phil said:

At least this doesn’t look like a repeat of March 2012. Would be grateful to put that horrible analog in the rear view mirror.

It would truly suck to continue building western snow pack and water supply. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Sunny again this morning from Seattle to Bellingham is the same area as yesterday with some downslope off the Cascades.     Up 42 in North Bend and at SEA already.

COD-GOES-West-subregional-Pac_NW.02.20230307.171117-over=map-bars=none.gif

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Sunny again this morning from Seattle to Bellingham is the same area as yesterday with some downslope off the Cascades.     Up 42 in North Bend and at SEA already.

COD-GOES-West-subregional-Pac_NW.02.20230307.171117-over=map-bars=none.gif

North Bend sounds like the ultimate banana belt. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

North Bend sounds like the ultimate banana belt. 

Depends on the set up... this happens to be a pattern that favors warmer conditions out here than other places in the PNW.    But today it should be fairly uniform from Seattle to Bellingham and out to the foothills up here thanks to weak offshore flow.    Any time there is an offshore component it will usually be warmer out here with the notable exception being when there is a deep cold pool east of the Cascades.   That is not an issue in March though.  

Downslope is a major difference between your area and my area.  

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Temps are fairly uniform this morning across the Seattle area in the low to mid 40s.    North Bend is the lower right corner but is not much warmer than the rest of the area this morning thanks to plentiful sunshine everywhere.

temp 3-7.jpg

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1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Live look from the kitchen window. 

5E021ABE-7DDD-469F-BD17-6C42A38A47A0.jpeg

You have snow on the trees in your yard... up here there isn't even snow on the trees on the ridge behind our house.   The grass still looks like crap though thanks to the endless chilly nights.

20230307_094536.jpg

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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2 minutes ago, Winterdog said:

40F after a low of 31F.  A beautiful day ahead.

343224EC-2BE1-4AC3-AA78-47000E381AED.thumb.jpeg.89d50a5d79a3cd97b777343e5305c11b.jpeg

Gorgeous.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

You have snow on the trees in your yard... up here there isn't even snow on the trees on the ridge behind our house.   The grass still looks like crap though thanks to the endless chilly nights.

20230307_094536.jpg

Yeah, its been a rinse/repeat cycle for the past week. Snow at night, melting late morning/early afternoon, snow moving back in around sunset. 36 with some filtered sunshine and drippy trees now. The legit melting will happen when we get rain late this week.  I would love to get more snow in the next six weeks, but I hope all this melts first. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Main batch of moisture moves through the Seattle area very early on Friday morning... more favorable timing.   But seems almost impossible for meaningful snow with the 925mb temps shown at that time. 

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-precip_1hr_inch-8449600.png

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-t925-8449600.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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16 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Main batch of moisture moves through the Seattle area very early on Friday morning... more favorable timing.   But seems almost impossible for meaningful snow with the 925mb temps shown at that time. 

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-precip_1hr_inch-8449600.png

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-t925-8449600.png

Looks like we could get a few inches Friday morning up here. 

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24 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Main batch of moisture moves through the Seattle area very early on Friday morning... more favorable timing.   But seems almost impossible for meaningful snow with the 925mb temps shown at that time. 

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-precip_1hr_inch-8449600.png

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-t925-8449600.png

Hmmm. 925's look decent down here. Your other map shows a couple inches here. Could be enough to push us past 2018-19. 

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  • Shivering 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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14 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z ECMWF ends with a West Coast soaking.

ecmwf-deterministic-namer-precip_6hr_inch-9054400.png

California is rocking it so far this year! 

  • Excited 1

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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Just now, MossMan said:

California is rocking it so far this year! 

Epic fire season coming up!

(Really, one is. California’s dry seasons are long enough and dry enough that fire season is always a thing. Wet winter just mean more stuff grows and is available to burn later.)

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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10 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Epic fire season coming up!

(Really, one is. California’s dry seasons are long enough and dry enough that fire season is always a thing. Wet winter just mean more stuff grows and is available to burn later.)

2019’s fire season wasn’t that bad. We spent all spring watching them get pounded while we were high and dry.
 

Interestingly, even though the northern third of CA was primed for a bad fire season in 2022 (especially since the cold and wet spring largely stopped at the Siskiyous), they didn’t really have a bad one. Most of the fires were south of Sacramento. Quite probable that so much area burned in 2018, 2020, and 2021 that the most flammable areas simply don’t have anything left to burn at this point.

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4 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

2019’s fire season wasn’t that bad. We spent all spring watching them get pounded while we were high and dry.
 

Interestingly, even though the northern third of CA was primed for a bad fire season in 2022 (especially since the cold and wet spring largely stopped at the Siskiyous), they didn’t really have a bad one. Most of the fires were south of Sacramento. Quite probable that so much area burned in 2018, 2020, and 2021 that the most flammable areas simply don’t have anything left to burn at this point.

I find the argument that snow pack and water supply play no role in the following fire season so ignorant and aggravating.

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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6 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

2019’s fire season wasn’t that bad. We spent all spring watching them get pounded while we were high and dry.
 

Interestingly, even though the northern third of CA was primed for a bad fire season in 2022 (especially since the cold and wet spring largely stopped at the Siskiyous), they didn’t really have a bad one. Most of the fires were south of Sacramento. Quite probable that so much area burned in 2018, 2020, and 2021 that the most flammable areas simply don’t have anything left to burn at this point.

This. Dirt doesn't burn well

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PWS: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KWAPORTA220

2023-2024 Snow Total: 18" (6 events)

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1 minute ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

There is plenty of forest still in Northern California.

Hopefully forever. 

A lot of the areas prone to burning (mostly southern cal) didn't burn last year not because the areas were not dry, but because they spent the last 4 years already burning. 

PWS: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KWAPORTA220

2023-2024 Snow Total: 18" (6 events)

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2 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

Hopefully forever. 

A lot of the areas prone to burning (mostly southern cal) didn't burn last year not because the areas were not dry, but because they spent the last 4 years already burning. 

I thought the post was about Northern California. Although there are plenty of standing forests left in central and southern CA too.

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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Just now, Cascadia_Wx said:

I thought the post was about Northern California. Although there are plenty of standing forests left in central and southern CA too.

It probably was. I'm good at overlooking details 😑

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PWS: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KWAPORTA220

2023-2024 Snow Total: 18" (6 events)

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Makes perfect sense. Can't burn bare rocks and dryt. 

  • Weenie 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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2 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

It probably was. I'm good at overlooking details 😑

Nice to have a poster from your neck of the woods. My dad lives in Port Townsend. When we visit we will go over toward Hurricane Ridge or Lake Crescent sometimes and will always be impressed at the amount of low elevation snow in the winter.

Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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