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PNW March 2023 Weather Discussion (2012 Redux)


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16 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Wow, Kamloops has really gotten the shaft this winter. I know it’s a pretty dry place (literally sagebrush and cactus country), but still.

Isn't it too cold for cactus?

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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32.0 now.  The cold nights just keep rolling along.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I do agree the Nina is probably dead.  I still give it a token 5 to 10 percent chance of pulling off a miracle though.  I think a mid year spike followed by a fall to around zero for next season.

As far as we know, there has not been a 4-year La Niña going back to (at least) the 1860s. So I’d place the odds of another niña at much lower than 10%. And the odds of any -ENSO outcome at under 25%.

A failed niño attempt is certainly possible, it happened in 2012 in spectacular fashion (and was also an EPAC attempt). But there are numerous large scale differences now relative to that year which (IMO) increase the odds of a successful El Niño transition this year.

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10 hours ago, RentonHill said:

Finally got My station back up on the roof after spending the last year on the playset. Guess I could have painted that wood to not stand out so much….wife will probably call that out. Oh well877A841E-7726-4B69-985F-4CAC424D0AFF.thumb.jpeg.0e63d0a89b44ab7b8090d4a74124757d.jpeg

FWIW your temp/humidity sensor is located right above that chimney vent. In conjunction with the asphalt roof you’ll probably run a slight warm bias, especially on calm, sunny days.

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I'm pretty sure Eugene is done with winter so I'll give my grade: C+. We only totaled around 3" of snow or so. None of it ever lasted even a single day. One especially slick ice storm that pretty much shut down the city for around 16 hours, but thankfully not thick enough for power outages. No remarkable cold snaps, but plenty of chilly weather. Bonus is less fog and inversions than average. The best highlight is that we had snowfall in every month from Nov - March. Don't think I've ever seen that before. It was a season of all mosts.

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4 hours ago, Phil said:

FWIW your temp/humidity sensor is located right above that chimney vent. In conjunction with the asphalt roof you’ll probably run a slight warm bias, especially on calm, sunny days.

It’s my only decent spot for the wind and we don’t use the chimney for that gas fireplace at all so I’m hoping that since it’s on the edge of the house and 12+ feet off the roof the bias will be minimal. Next investment will be one of those modular stations. 

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The ENSO talk in this thread is getting pretty annoying already. I’m going to propose our admins bring back the old ENSO thread. That way the 3 members engaged in extreme myopia and wishcasting related to enso can knock themselves out in there. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Also I’m not seeing any similarities between March 2019 at this point moving forward. The last half of that month was historically warm and dry. Nothing in the models indicated this. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Record low of 5 at Burns this morning breaking the record of 9 from 1951.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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29 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

The fv3 model from lastnight handled this snow good this morning. 

20230309_064528.jpg

Sun is shining here already through thin high clouds.    Bone dry out there.   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Sun is shining here already through thin high clouds.    Bone dry out there.   

With the strong east flow and that blob of moisture coming in Friday morning there no reason to believe it won't be snow here, especially after seeing it happen this morning. 

We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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10 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

With the strong east flow and that blob of moisture coming in Friday morning there no reason to believe it won't be snow here, especially after seeing it happen this morning. 

Agreed.   

The ECMWF shows the main front tomorrow splitting pretty good as it moves through early tomorrow morning with upslope against the east side of the Cascades and Olympics with less precip in King County with offshore flow.  

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-precip_1hr_inch-8449600 (1).png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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8 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

I do agree the Nina is probably dead.  I still give it a token 5 to 10 percent chance of pulling off a miracle though.  I think a mid year spike followed by a fall to around zero for next season.

La Nina has officially ended

Here are the current ensemble forecasts 

 

Screenshot_20230309-074035.png

Screenshot_20230309-074212.png

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Low of 32 this morning. Drier airmass because it’s up to 34 and no tree drips. Some flurries around, but today could break our measurable snow streak. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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4 hours ago, RentonHill said:

It’s my only decent spot for the wind and we don’t use the chimney for that gas fireplace at all so I’m hoping that since it’s on the edge of the house and 12+ feet off the roof the bias will be minimal. Next investment will be one of those modular stations. 

Ah, gotcha. Nice thing about the VP2 is the sensors are detachable from the ISS, so I have the anemometer on a pole attached to the chimney, rain gauge on the top of the roof away from trees, and temp/humidity sensor 2m off ground in the shade (and 2 other sensors in different locations to measure differences and cross calibrate when replacing).

2 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

The ENSO talk in this thread is getting pretty annoying already. I’m going to propose our admins bring back the old ENSO thread. That way the 3 members engaged in extreme myopia and wishcasting related to enso can knock themselves out in there. 

I’ll take that deal if you stop spamming the thread with useless CFS updates. Sound good? ;) 

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10 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

this is showing a very localized area of snowfall tomorrow morning out here. Funny the model knows right where the snow belt out here is. That map is right where the most snow falls out here.

ww_snow24.36.0000 (1).gif

I might actually score a few inches according to this.... I don't believe

PWS: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KWAPORTA220

2023-2024 Snow Total: 18" (6 events)

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2 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

The ENSO talk in this thread is getting pretty annoying already. I’m going to propose our admins bring back the old ENSO thread. That way the 3 members engaged in extreme myopia and wishcasting related to enso can knock themselves out in there. 

ENSO is pretty important dude.  If you haven't noticed the west coast of the US is one of the more sensitive places in relation to its state

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18 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

this is showing a very localized area of snowfall tomorrow morning out here. Funny the model knows right where the snow belt out here is. That map is right where the most snow falls out here.

ww_snow24.36.0000 (1).gif

I’m in the blue! 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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