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PNW March 2023 Weather Discussion (2012 Redux)


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18 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

SEA has finally hit 60... up to 61 now.     63 in North Bend.

Also interesting that Bremerton is at 61 despite the unbelievably low odds of 2% to reach 60 degrees.  😀

Think my area was at around the 10% mark 🤣

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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This little warm period is definitely overachieving. The fairly deep offshore flow is helping, considering the airmass itself is nothing to write home about. 500mb heights in the mid to upper 550s and 850s peaking around 2-4C.

Had some friends head down to Vegas for the weekend and temps are only forecast to be a couple degrees warmer there than here.

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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Wouldn’t surprise me too much to see PDX top out around 66-67 tomorrow. Out of curiosity I was researching when their average first 65+ day is and the historical norm is March 16th. The latest first 65+ on record was also pretty recent, on 4/21/17. 

Pretty stellar batch of days, especially with the large diurnal temp swings and east winds. The quick crash to cooler weather Sunday should be fun too.

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

The change in summer this century has been nothing short of astonishing to this point.  That is bout 90% of the reason for the glacial retreat right now.  The other seasons have mostly been much more in line with the past except for January.

If there were only a reason why the summers have gotten so hot??  hmmmmmm??

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1 minute ago, Phishy Wx said:

If there were only reason why the summers have gotten so hot??  hmmmmmm??

Not just summer either of course. It has been roundly proven time and time again that all seasons have warmed more or less equally. Of course that is also a very touchy subject here for some reason.

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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This little warm spell could have been avoided if the "massive improvements" on the 18Z GFS on Tuesday were accurate.  It showed 40s and rain tomorrow.   What could have been.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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OH MY

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_31.png

 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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9 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

This little warm spell could have been avoided if the "massive improvements" on the 18Z GFS on Tuesday were accurate.  It showed 40s and rain tomorrow.   What could have been.

Really sucks how things turned out this week. Maybe next week can over achieve the other way. We can only hope. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Really sucks how things turned out this week. Maybe next week can over achieve the other way. We can only hope. 

18Z GFS shows significantly less snow over the next 10 days than the 12Z run.   And the 12Z run was not as good as the crazy 06Z run.  

What is happening to this winter?    

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

18Z GFS shows significantly less snow over the next 10 days than the 12Z run.   And the 12Z run was not as good as the crazy 06Z run.  

What is happening to this winter?    

Not going to respond to your trolling, it shows a solidly cold pattern and snow here. Details always fluctuate, you were consistently trying to poo poo everything the past month and we scored about 55" of snow. 

Today is just awful, warm, cloudy, and gross. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Not going to respond to your trolling, it shows a solidly cold pattern and snow here. Details always fluctuate, you were consistently trying to poo poo everything the past month and we scored about 55" of snow. 

Today is just awful, warm, cloudy, and gross. 

maybe you'll have some snow in July?

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1 minute ago, Phishy Wx said:

maybe you'll have some snow in July?

Seems unlikely, but it is possible into early May. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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9 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Not going to respond to your trolling, it shows a solidly cold pattern and snow here. Details always fluctuate, you were consistently trying to poo poo everything the past month and we scored about 55" of snow. 

Today is just awful, warm, cloudy, and gross. 

I have not downplayed much over the last month.  Actually sort of the opposite... playing up snow maps that were probably not going to verify.    Its been very impressive in terms cold and snow in many places.

Not so impressive for my area or King County though and that is usually my main focus.   We only had 5 inches of snow in my backyard compared to your 55.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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4 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

it's a Balmy 53 out

 

shorts, hoody and (((((GASP)))))). Flip Flops

That’s another thing I will rock over here during the summer evenings…Shorts and a hoodie! 

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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Nice day outside. Fifties and I opened the windows for the first time this season. We also had a window that broke right at the start of the cold season and finally had it fixed. Nice sliding window for airflow.

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Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA:

2023-2024 Snowfall totals: 14.3 inches

HIghest snow total (per event): 5.8 inches total 1/11/24 - 1/12/24.

Most recent accumulation (non trace): 0.20 inches on 2/26/24

Days with  trace or more snowfall: 12/01/23 (0.60), 1/8/24 (1.0), 1/10/24 (3.5), 1/11/23 (3.5 inches with Thundersnow; separate event from prior day), 1/12/24 (2.30). 1/14/24 (T), 1/17/24 (1.20 inches), 1/18/24 (1.5 inches), 1/19/24 (0.20), 2/09/24 (0.30), 2/26/24 (0.20-mainly graupel)

First Freeze: 10/27/2023

Last Sub freezing Day: 1/20/24 (12th) (8 days in a row from 1/12/24-1/20/24)

Coldest low: -12F (!!!!!!!!) (1/12/24)

Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location (on ground)

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13 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

But are you on LSD though.

CANT EVEN GET TWO SUNNY DAYS IN THIS GOSH DARN CLIMATE GIVE ME MUSHROOMS NOW!

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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The visible sat pic today was pretty interesting.  Still shows a lot of snow on the Oregon Coast range and even the Willapa Hills.  It also shows Western Douglas County still totally white.  My respect for that microclimate just keeps growing.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The visible sat pic today was pretty interesting.  Still shows a lot of snow on the Oregon Coast range and even the Willapa Hills.  It also shows Western Douglas County still totally white.  My respect for that microclimate just keeps growing.

Definitely some snow in Drain, Elkton, Yoncalla and Reedsport earlier this month.

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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The probability chart they did for places that would reach 60 today failed pretty miserably.  Places they only gave a 20% chance easily made it.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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11 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Looks like a 64/36 for PDX today. 62/35 here. Light east winds and mostly sunny until about 3-4pm, at which point mid to high level clouds moved in pretty quickly.

It's supposed to totally clear out late tonight so a lot of places could crash pretty good before sunrise.

I had 63/35 today.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

The probability chart they did for places that would reach 60 today failed pretty miserably.  Places they only gave a 20% chance easily made it.

Just makes no sense with temperatures.   Like anyone can tell the difference between 59 and 60 or that it matters.  

I understand there was a push by the NWS to talk more about probabilities since they would talk about things like snowstorms knowing there was chance it could miss an area and then everyone says they were wrong.   

But its absolutely silly to do it with something like whether it reaches a specific temperature.   Way beyond the original intent and into the realm of absurdity. 

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Very good news.  The ECMWF has sped up the departure of the cloud cover tonight on the 18z, and even it seems to be too slow on the progression of the cloud band.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Just makes no sense with temperatures.   Like anyone can tell the difference between 59 and 60 or that it matters.  

I understand there was a push by the NWS to talk more about probabilities since they would talk about things like snowstorms knowing there was chance it could miss an area and then everyone says they were wrong.   

But its absolutely silly to do it with something like whether it reaches a specific temperature.   Way beyond the original intent and into the realm of absurdity. 

I have to agree.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Very good news.  The ECMWF has sped up the departure of the cloud cover tonight on the 18z, and even it seems to be too slow on the progression of the cloud band.

Looks like it does not clear King County until about 6 or 7 a.m. per the ECMWF.    Won't matter out here anyways since the east wind will be going all night.    I personally consider that to be very good news.   😁

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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18Z ECMWF also delays the cool down from the south a little more on Sunday afternoon and evening.    Looks like that day has a decent chance to be as warm as today from Olympia northward.

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-t2m_f_max6-9270400 (1).png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Looks like it does not clear King County until about 6 or 7 a.m. per the ECMWF.    Won't matter out here anyways since the east wind will be going all night.    I personally consider that to be very good news.   😁

The frosty mornings with full sunshine the last couple days have been awesome. Would love to see another one tomorrow when I can watch it unfold instead of sitting at my computer talking on a conference call. 

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