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PNW March 2023 Weather Discussion (2012 Redux)


Requiem

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SEA failed to record the official high yesterday or the low this morning.   It did get the high temp this afternoon of 62.  

Based on the hourly readings... it was probably a 62/39 day.   Maybe 38.   That would be around +3 for the day which would break the streak of at or below normal days.

 

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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3 hours ago, Phil said:

The fact subsidence fails to hold along/east of the dateline following the MJO passage confirms the demise of the La Niña background state, assuming the EPS has a decent handle on things.

DE2D4502-E85B-4D60-A427-97D9AA1AAEB6.png

 

Pretty critical time frame coming up.  I still think weak ENSO this coming winter and bigger Nino next.  Things just aren't advanced enough for a major warm event to develop this year IMO.  Years with big Ninos already are well on their way by this time.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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3 minutes ago, T-Town said:

The frosty mornings with full sunshine the last couple days have been awesome. Would love to see another one tomorrow when I can watch it unfold instead of sitting at my computer talking on a conference call. 

Tomorrow will be spectacular.   I was outside as much as I could between meetings today.   We even enjoyed our first IPA on the deck this afternoon.  👍

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Tomorrow will be spectacular.   I was outside as much as I could between meetings today.   We even enjoyed our first IPA on the deck this afternoon.  👍

Currently enjoying our first IPAs of the year on the deck. 

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10 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Looks like it does not clear King County until about 6 or 7 a.m. per the ECMWF.    Won't matter out here anyways since the east wind will be going all night.    I personally consider that to be very good news.   😁

Looks like it's mostly clear by 12z which is about 5am.  The timing is also moving up so we could do it pretty easily by 4am.  Interestingly the latest run shows onshore flow west of Puget Sound and offshore east of Puget Sound for a while tonight.  That could keep dry air in place for the EPSL.  Places that decouple on the east side could get pretty cold.  Gradients will be weak so it looks like a more widespread potential tonight than last night.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Tomorrow will be spectacular.   I was outside as much as I could between meetings today.   We even enjoyed our first IPA on the deck this afternoon.  👍

It felt good today.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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8 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Pretty critical time frame coming up.  I still think weak ENSO this coming winter and bigger Nino next.  Things just aren't advanced enough for a major warm event to develop this year IMO.  Years with big Ninos already are well on their way by this time.

Well, Niño-3 is already +0.6C. And many years that transitioned into moderate/strong niños were still -ENSO at this point. So it’s pretty far along, actually.

Downwelling -QBO during boreal spring/summer is also constructive to El Niño development.

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That said it doesn’t look like the PDO/PMM will be flipping positive this year, so cold phase niño composites may better predict amplitude.

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14 minutes ago, Phil said:

And surface+subsurface current anomalies are westerly across the equatorial pacific.

832D1CC6-C32D-4D24-9692-2319C079A9F5.gif92C75F40-3C8D-4761-87E5-0A099886CFA9.gif

Am I in the blue? 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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New EPS weeklies are bullish on -PNA/-NAO continuing through much of the spring. Statistically this argues strongly in favor of continued -PDO/-PMM despite the development of El Niño.

42209CB1-5C14-4884-9880-F416F46C81F9.png8405C672-DF18-4BFB-9295-3C4105643101.png

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13 minutes ago, Phil said:

New EPS weeklies are bullish on -PNA/-NAO continuing through much of the spring. Statistically this argues strongly in favor of continued -PDO/-PMM despite the development of El Niño.

42209CB1-5C14-4884-9880-F416F46C81F9.png8405C672-DF18-4BFB-9295-3C4105643101.png

Some of the best news I’ve heard all day.

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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63/31 at my place and 58/27 yesterday. Got my 70th freeze this morning!

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2023 - 2024 Cold Season Stats

Total Snowfall - 0.75”

Max Snow Depth - 0.5”

Coldest High Temp - 21 (Jan 13)

Coldest Low Temp - 9 (Jan 13)

Number of Freezes - 48

Sub-40 highs - 12

Highs 32 or lower - 3

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8 hours ago, Ken in Wood Village said:

Not sure if anyone knows about this movie that just came out. You can stream it on Vudu. You can also do it on Amazon Video but the trailer is in Spanish (I think) so I did it on Vudu. It's actually pretty good. 

Supercell-Movie-2023.webp

Definitely going to watch!!

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3 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

18Z ECMWF also delays the cool down from the south a little more on Sunday afternoon and evening.    Looks like that day has a decent chance to be as warm as today from Olympia northward.

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-t2m_f_max6-9270400 (1).png

Looks pretty chilly here. Allah be praised.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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I don't drink often anymore, but when I do it is at least 90 proof. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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In addition to Sunday being nice... the GFS gives us another surprise 60ish day on Wednesday now with all the cold air down in CA.    

 

gfs-deterministic-west-t850_anom_stream-9529600.png

gfs-deterministic-west-t2m_f_max6-9529600.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

In addition to Sunday being nice... the GFS gives us another surprise 60ish day on Wednesday now with all the cold air down in CA.    

 

gfs-deterministic-west-t850_anom_stream-9529600.png

gfs-deterministic-west-t2m_f_max6-9529600.png

F that. At least it's snowing up here by Friday morning. 

Edited by SilverFallsAndrew
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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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9 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

F that. At least it's snowing up here by Friday morning. 

We will see.   A couple days ago the GFS was showing lots of snow in my area for Tuesday and Wednesday.    Now the Monday - Thursday period looks benign and quiet.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Just now, TT-SEA said:

We will see.   A couple days ago the GFS was showing lots of snow in my area for Tuesday and Wednesday.    Now the Monday - Thursday period looks benign and quiet.  

How is my foot of snow looking

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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5 minutes ago, MossMan said:

How is my foot of snow looking

That was the ECMWF.   But the GFS will get there eventually of course since it assumes all of western WA is above 2,000 feet.  😀

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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3 hours ago, Phil said:

Well, Niño-3 is already +0.6C. And many years that transitioned into moderate/strong niños were still -ENSO at this point. So it’s pretty far along, actually.

Downwelling -QBO during boreal spring/summer is also constructive to El Niño development.

I was looking at it more from an atmospheric perspective.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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20 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

In addition to Sunday being nice... the GFS gives us another surprise 60ish day on Wednesday now with all the cold air down in CA.    

 

gfs-deterministic-west-t850_anom_stream-9529600.png

gfs-deterministic-west-t2m_f_max6-9529600.png

Pretty suspect, but who knows.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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00Z GFS parks a large ULL just offshore next weekend... but the 00Z GEM shows a narrow ridge for the PNW so there is still lots of uncertainty.  

 

gem-all-namer-z500_anom-9810400.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 minute ago, Doinko said:

Some cold air north of BC on this run
850t_anom.na.png

Actually in BC.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Another snowy run.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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We're going to have to keep an eye on precip.  Parts of WA are getting close to going into moderate drought, and many parts of OR are still bad.  Massive improvement in CA of course.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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The cloud band is making really good progress.  A lot of places will clear out well before sunrise.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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