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PNW March 2023 Weather Discussion (2012 Redux)


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29 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Not 2 bad Andrew. We approached the loop from a quieter side by Rowland Lake.

How bout that 00z gfs. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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5 minutes ago, Doinko said:

prateptype_cat_ecmwf-imp.us_nw.png

Score!

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Whoa...

sn10_acc-imp.us_nw.png

 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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9 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Whoa...

sn10_acc-imp.us_nw.png

 

It's Always Sunny The Gang Dancing GIF

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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3 hours ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Got a nice spring hike in in the Catherine Creek area between Hood River and The Dalles today. Temps in the mid 60s with light winds out there. The grass widows have started blooming, they are the first flower of the spring to show up in the Gorge, and were definitely a couple weeks late this year.

B49379DA-6F7C-42B4-9F15-C47E0E3D22AF.jpeg

ED395369-F173-40FE-8B21-7D9371299F2D.jpeg

6AA1122D-9AEE-4D9E-915D-99AB3DFA1EE9.jpeg

EF9FCC41-1D25-490F-9A74-F7EE62ADC73B.jpeg

A494CC97-F139-4139-812A-74D6BB02C36C.jpeg

42860ADD-256E-4B05-B362-70D0F9F6C5B7.jpeg

Looks like an amazing place to hike.

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The GFS ensemble has really locked in on a nice cold snap with unseasonably cold 850s for the 23rd through 27th at least.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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This is legit.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_33.png

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Let's do this in January next year...

prateptype_cat-met.na.png

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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This run gives us 21" on the Kuchera, 35" 10:1, this late in the year, definitely not going to get 10:1 ratios. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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It looks like the CFS is now going for a solidly chilly April. That model seems to default to warm and then as the next month approaches will flip to cold if a cold month is coming up. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

This run gives us 21" on the Kuchera, 35" 10:1, this late in the year, definitely not going to get 10:1 ratios. 

I am up way too early... but fell asleep at 9 p.m. so got 8 hours.

I expect very little snow in my area.    The basic pattern is the same as its been for the last month and that did almost nothing here.

But is nice to see that Tuesday and Wednesday have been trending even warmer.   Wednesday should be similar to Saturday.

ecmwf-deterministic-nw-t2m_f_max6-9529600 (2).png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

It looks like the CFS is now going for a solidly chilly April. That model seems to default to warm and then as the next month approaches will flip to cold if a cold month is coming up. 

I will mention that in the latest Ag Weather forecast... they thought the first half of April might be colder than normal across the west based on the MJO emerging back into phase 7.

And that is what the ECMWF is showing at the beginning of April:

ECMF (4).png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Warm morning... 49 at SEA and 52 in North Bend.    Looks like SEA got down to 46 earlier.   

06Z ECMWF is slower with the arrival of the rain today... not as close to the Seattle area at 5 p.m. as the previous runs.    Should be another nice day but with more clouds with the warmest temps in the EPSL and foothills again.  

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-precip_1hr_inch-9270400 (1).png

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-t2m_f_max6-9270400 (2).png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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15 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I am up way too early... but fell asleep at 9 p.m. so got 8 hours.

I expect very little snow in my area.    The basic pattern is the same as its been for the last month and that did almost nothing here.

But is nice to see that Tuesday and Wednesday have been trending even warmer.   Wednesday should be similar to Saturday.

ecmwf-deterministic-nw-t2m_f_max6-9529600 (2).png

I haven’t slept a wink. Where are Jesse s drugs when I need them. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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9 hours ago, ShawniganLake said:

Would be unusual to be puking that long from Norovirus.  She’s more likely pregnant. 

you trying to give me a panic attack? 😂 We’ve taken basically every precaution, would have to be a massive fluke.

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30 minutes ago, Phil said:

you trying to give me a panic attack? 😂 We’ve taken basically every precaution, would have to be a massive fluke.

That’s what Jesus mom thought too!

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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24 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

That’s what Jesus mom thought too!

I’ve always imagined that when she finally went to the doctor and found out the first words out of her mouth were JESUS CHRIST!

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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4 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Ended up with a low of 42 here. Now partly to mostly cloudy and 49. Rain should be here by 2-3pm.

Our freeze streak is over. Looks like we went 26 consecutive days. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Today will likely be our last day of continuous snowcover too. That will be a 26 day streak as well. 2nd longest since I've been here. We went from Feb 3 - March 21 with continuous snow cover in 2019. Historically speaking the big snow years up here generally melt out around March 15-20th. 

Edited by SilverFallsAndrew
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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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12z GFS kind of got lost in cutoff land mid-range. The GEM does no such thing and is dropping another monster on us at the end. 

gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_namer_40.png

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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14 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

12z GFS kind of got lost in cutoff land mid-range. The GEM does no such thing and is dropping another monster on us at the end. 

gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_namer_40.png

March-May every year.

Reminiscent of the late 2000s/early 2010s ECMWF tendency to put a cutoff ULL over the SW US. The next GFS upgrade in 2024/2025 should address this issue. I hope.

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2 minutes ago, Phil said:

March-May every year.

Reminiscent of the late 2000s/early 2010s ECMWF tendency to put a cutoff ULL over the SW US. The next GFS upgrade in 2024/2025 should address this issue. I hope.

All in all, the next 2-3 weeks look to be a continuation of the pattern we have seen since mid-February. At least out here. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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14 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

All in all, the next 2-3 weeks look to be a continuation of the pattern we have seen since mid-February. At least out here. 

Yeah looks like it. But I’m skeptical the cool/wet pattern will continue beyond mid-April. Lowpass constructed analogs converge to a much drier-looking pattern in W-Canada/PNW from mid/late April through mid/late May, while the Southwest/Interior West continue with a cool/wet theme (probably due to ULL activity associated with the STJ).

But it’s a very different pattern than those of the last few years at that stage. It was clear early-on in both 2021 and 2022 that the 4CH was going to be a beast heading into the warm season. Not the case this year.

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1 minute ago, Phil said:

Yeah looks like it. But I’m skeptical the cool/wet pattern will continue beyond mid-April. Lowpass constructed analogs converge to a much drier-looking pattern in W-Canada/PNW from mid/late April through mid/late May, while the Southwest/Interior West continue with a cool/wet theme (probably due to ULL activity associated with the STJ).

But it’s a very different pattern than those of the last few years at that stage. It was clear in both 2021 and 2022 that the 4CH was going to be a beast. Not the case this year.

Would that increase chances for thunderstorms here?

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Dry pattern for WA, BC, and less so for OR is locking in it would appear.

1680609600-oXyiiRd1xWY.png

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 minute ago, Doinko said:

Would that increase chances for thunderstorms here?

I don’t know enough about PNW thunderstorm climatology to say one way or another.

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9 hours ago, Gradient Keeper said:

00z GEFS 10 Day Snowfall totals

sn10_acc-mean-imp.us_nw.png

If I could have a dollar for every inch it has shown for me since mid Feb I could go on a nice vacation.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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5 minutes ago, Phil said:

Yeah looks like it. But I’m skeptical the cool/wet pattern will continue beyond mid-April. Lowpass constructed analogs converge to a much drier-looking pattern in W-Canada/PNW from mid/late April through mid/late May, while the Southwest/Interior West continue with a cool/wet theme (probably due to ULL activity associated with the STJ).

But it’s a very different pattern than those of the last few years at that stage. It was clear early-on in both 2021 and 2022 that the 4CH was going to be a beast heading into the warm season. Not the case this year.

This makes sense. The pattern evolution is quite a bit different this year than last. We had a cold snap at the end of last February too, but it was more of a one off, March was fairly mild overall, the default troughing set up much later on. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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47 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Today will likely be our last day of continuous snowcover too. That will be a 26 day streak as well. 2nd longest since I've been here. We went from Feb 3 - March 21 with continuous snow cover in 2019. Historically speaking the big snow years up here generally melt out around March 15-20th. 

2019 was like that up here too.  Places just north of me had continuous snow cover for a month at about 500 feet.  I was just barely too far south to really cash in that last big snow so it didn't last as long.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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14 minutes ago, Phil said:

Yeah looks like it. But I’m skeptical the cool/wet pattern will continue beyond mid-April. Lowpass constructed analogs converge to a much drier-looking pattern in W-Canada/PNW from mid/late April through mid/late May, while the Southwest/Interior West continue with a cool/wet theme (probably due to ULL activity associated with the STJ).

But it’s a very different pattern than those of the last few years at that stage. It was clear early-on in both 2021 and 2022 that the 4CH was going to be a beast heading into the warm season. Not the case this year.

STRONG feeling that our cold July will be a rock solid case of delayed but NOT denied.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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