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PNW March 2023 Weather Discussion (2012 Redux)


Requiem

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37 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Going through my video archives it appears we had some late season snow back on March 24th 2018 at our old place which was at 300’. 

IMG_4433.MOV

I had snow on that date, but only 1.6". 

There were a lot of small snows throughout 2018, but nothing exceeding 3" until Jan 2019. 

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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5 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Good stuff. Seems largely a function of UHI. Takes an act of the GODS to pull off a cold low at PDX these days. 

lol for sure.. I recall a few years Hillsboro had freezing lows in October and PDX would not have their first until the week of Christmas. ;)

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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2 minutes ago, Timmy Supercell said:

lol for sure.. I recall a few years Hillsboro had freezing lows in October and PDX would not have their first until the week of Christmas. ;)

Hillsboro managed a freeze last year on May 13th, PDX didn't see any after March. But I think Hillsboro in general is a cold spot compared to most of the Metro area

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8 minutes ago, Timmy Supercell said:

I had snow on that date, but only 1.6". 

There were a lot of small snows throughout 2018, but nothing exceeding 3" until Jan 2019. 

The big one for me was on 2/18/18! 

F9ABAE53-F623-491E-9236-4AF0EECC1919.jpeg

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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6 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Well, we should end up below normal, but most areas that didn't have 3 weeks of snow cover will not be in the top 10 for cold Marches. Oh well, such is lyfe in a rapidly warming klimate. 

We still have a lot of chilly weather coming this month.  850s are below normal for almost the entire run on the ensemble means.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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20 minutes ago, MossMan said:

The big one for me was on 2/18/18! 

F9ABAE53-F623-491E-9236-4AF0EECC1919.jpeg

4 inches on the ground on Christmas morning here that same winter.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 hour ago, MossMan said:

Going through my video archives it appears we had some late season snow back on March 24th 2018 at our old place which was at 300’. 

IMG_4433.MOV

We had late March snow in 2008 also.  Then of course a big C-Zone snow north of Seattle in April.

  • Like 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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4 hours ago, Gradient Keeper said:

12z Euro 10 Day Loop: 500mb Height Anomaly, 850mb Temps. Snow maps are just eye candy.

In this pattern featuring cold onshore flow sticking snow is unlikely below around 1000' to maybe 700'. For us measly lowlanders we could see wet snow and slushy stuff on the trees, yards, and vehicles during the overnight and to around 8-9 AM.
floop-ecmwf_full-2023031912.500h_anom.na.gif

floop-ecmwf_full-2023031912.850th.us_nw.gif

You never know if you get a favorable tracking low or very cold onshore flow with some heavy showers at night.  Not expecting anything here.  We have had terrible luck with this entire chilly period here.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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WTF?  I hadn't noticed this until just now.  That would be some crazy cold for SEA this late in the season.

1679227200-VSIazG2pTC4.png

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Just noticed this as well.  The numbers check out too.

1679745600-XPPMYDdPmEU.png

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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16 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

4 inches on the ground on Christmas morning here that same winter.

That was a lovely White Christmas! 

E08DD374-FEDF-4A48-87E3-B275457C4CFF.jpeg

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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6 hours ago, Phil said:

Well that explains why you’re so adamantly against one. 😂

FWIW, it’s more likely to be an average/moderate event as opposed to a strong/super niño. We will know a *lot* more during/after the next MJO transit in mid/late April (which should also coincide with a flip to a warmer pattern in the NW, if all goes to plan).

We'll see how it plays out.  Still a lot of ways to avoid a Nino next winter.

There is no doubt that the inevitable post sunspot max El Nino usually produces absolutely terrible winters here.  The most famous sunspot max El Nino disaster here was the winter of 1957-58.  An absolute turd after years of greatness.

I hope the good roll we are doesn't get ruined this early in the game.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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3 minutes ago, MossMan said:

That was a lovely White Christmas! 

E08DD374-FEDF-4A48-87E3-B275457C4CFF.jpeg

For me that one was nicer than either 1990 or 2008.  With both of those Christmas morning wasn't as cold and nice as Christmas morning in 2017.  In 2017 we actually had the heaviest snow just around sunrise.  

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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I would sure love to see the 12z ECMWF end up being somewhere near correct.  Another cold snap with double digit minus departures would be impressive after having so many such cold snaps already this season.

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  • Sick 2

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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After this winter I believe we are playing with house money. Go big or go home. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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44 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

For me that one was nicer than either 1990 or 2008.  With both of those Christmas morning wasn't as cold and nice as Christmas morning in 2017.  In 2017 we actually had the heaviest snow just around sunrise.  

Up here we had heavy snowfall happening both 1990 and 2008 so those were the winners here! This was taken in the afternoon of Christmas Day 2008. 

F6383B2E-F973-42E1-B7AB-8623940A0680.jpeg

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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12 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Expectations for next winter should be below the basement floor.

Been saying the lowlands are due for a snowless winter or two, though it doesn't mean another '14-15 on the way. Maybe still some snowpack up where it counts. 

  • Like 1

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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6 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Expectations for next winter should be below the basement floor.

Probably, but you never know. December 2009 Is probably a best case scenario. 

  • Popcorn 1
  • Snow 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Probably, but you never know. December 2009 Is probably a best case scenario. 

A rainy/muddy December like in 2015, but Crater Lake had 200" of snow at least 😝

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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1 hour ago, The Blob said:

The last few days really woke up the plants. We have trees blooming in the neighborhood, all of mine are waking up. Especially the crocuses and ramps.

IMG_20230319_090810_645.jpg

IMG_20230319_090810_800.jpg

Late!

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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36 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Expectations for next winter should be below the basement floor.

I'm hoping that can be pushed back to 2024-25.  Fair chance with solar max still not here yet.  Normally it's solar peak or just past where a nice run can get brutally killed.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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49 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Up here we had heavy snowfall happening both 1990 and 2008 so those were the winners here! This was taken in the afternoon of Christmas Day 2008. 

F6383B2E-F973-42E1-B7AB-8623940A0680.jpeg

We had snow falling here Christmas morning in 2008, but it was wet.  2017 was nice dry snow and below freezing.  Where I was in 1990 we were at the tail end of the warmup between the two cold waves, but it snowed a couple of inches Christmas morning I believe.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

After this winter I believe we are playing with house money. Go big or go home. 

I think if we are neutral next winter it will be a good one.  Very likely one of the next 2 will be awful though.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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A bit cooler air working in now. Temp down to 41 with rain. 

  • Rain 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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The EPS has an 850 mean of -7 for the late week trough.  Very legit for this late.

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  • Shivering 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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4 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Two big takeaways reading over the last page. Jim’s dial-up internet is working again after being down all day, and he REALLY wants to avoid an El Niño.

Thank God I haven't had dial up for a good long time now!

As for the Nino....just don't want to see this regime crash, which it most certainly will if we have a Nino.

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  • scream 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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8 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The EPS has an 850 mean of -7 for the late week trough.  Very legit for this late.

I’d be surprised if I don’t see snow. 

 

7 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Thank God I haven't had dial up for a good long time now!

As for the Nino....just don't want to see this regime crash, which it most certainly will if we have a Nino.

All good things must come to

an end. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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5 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

00z GFS

floop-gfs-2023032000.500h_anom.na.gif

Hmmm… 2nd trough cuts off but it works out in the end. 

  • Like 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Pouring out there now. 

  • Rain 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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