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PNW March 2023 Weather Discussion (2012 Redux)


Requiem

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The GFS handles the late week / weekend trough much differently than the ECMWF.  The GFS swings it way out over the ocean which obviously ruins the cold potential.  

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I’d be surprised if I don’t see snow. 

 

All good things must come to

an end. 

It will, but it doesn't have to be this year.  We are just now hitting our stride with this persistent -PNA pattern.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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29 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Day 8 Model comparison - GFS, GEFS.

500h_anom.na.png

500h_anom-mean.na.png

GEFS is closer to the ECMWF.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 hour ago, The Blob said:

Bruh I've been very busy lately and have no time to filter through 70 pages.

I was talking about time of year when I said late.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I’d be surprised if I don’t see snow. 

 

All good things must come to

an end. 

You most likely will see snow.  I would sure like to see some too.

  • Snow 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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The GFS meteorgrams show every day solidly below normal from the 23rd through 31st for SEA.  Pretty big deal for that relatively warm biased product.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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2 minutes ago, Phil said:

NWS forecast looks wintry at Tim’s house. ☃️ 

702DCC6E-A8D6-4F22-B3DD-8C266EA1311F.jpeg

This could be a fairly big deal for us if the details work out right.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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2 minutes ago, Phil said:

Cool/dry to warm/wet. Story of this so-called “winter”.

5B47E99C-55E5-4050-8240-FA14FEB1FD36.jpeg

73/60 with rain is pretty cringe worthy alright.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Douglas / Waterville pulled off a high of 41 today while Leavenworth was in the mid 50s and Moses Lake in the low 60s.  That place is amazing.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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7 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

73/60 with rain is pretty cringe worthy alright.

On the upside, if there were ever a “good” time to torch it would be spring. Low humidity and usually a decent breeze to keep things mixed. In fact it’s been so dry NWS has been issuing red flag warnings.

In summer this pattern would produce lows in the 80s. 🤮

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Looks like one location in OR had winds over 2200 mph today.  Might be some damage there! 🤣

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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GEFS keeps trending colder out there in the mid/long range. Big difference compared to 00z last night.

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A decent low is spinning up off the central Oregon Coast and appears to be deepening/strengthening a bit. This is likely going to result in a surge of southerly winds from roughly 5 AM to perhaps 3 PM today. The 00z WRF-GFS 1.33km hi-res shows this well with 25-35mph gusts highest favored south of PDX. Neat.

cira-rammb-slider---goes-18---full_disk---band_15-opacity-100---20230320032020-20230320070020.gif

May be an image of map and text that says 'UW WRF- GFS 1.33km Domain Fest: 19.00h Valid: 19 UTC Mon 20 Mar 10m Wind Gust (full barb 10kts) Sea Level Pressure (hPa) 124 개 Init: 00 UTC Mon 20 Mar 23 PDT Mon 20 123 W 350 90 80 70 65 60 1002 55 50 300 40 35 30 25 20 15 1510 150 200 CONTOURS: UNTS=hPa 1006.0 HIGH= 1009.0 NTERVAL= 1.0000 Model Info: V4.1.3 YSU PBL Thompson MP m.37 LY: RRTMG Sา: RRTMG DIFF: full KM: 2D Smagor B sec'

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13 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

A decent low is spinning up off the central Oregon Coast and appears to be deepening/strengthening a bit. This is likely going to result in a surge of southerly winds from roughly 5 AM to perhaps 3 PM today. The 00z WRF-GFS 1.33km hi-res shows this well with 25-35mph gusts highest favored south of PDX. Neat.

cira-rammb-slider---goes-18---full_disk---band_15-opacity-100---20230320032020-20230320070020.gif

May be an image of map and text that says 'UW WRF- GFS 1.33km Domain Fest: 19.00h Valid: 19 UTC Mon 20 Mar 10m Wind Gust (full barb 10kts) Sea Level Pressure (hPa) 124 개 Init: 00 UTC Mon 20 Mar 23 PDT Mon 20 123 W 350 90 80 70 65 60 1002 55 50 300 40 35 30 25 20 15 1510 150 200 CONTOURS: UNTS=hPa 1006.0 HIGH= 1009.0 NTERVAL= 1.0000 Model Info: V4.1.3 YSU PBL Thompson MP m.37 LY: RRTMG Sา: RRTMG DIFF: full KM: 2D Smagor B sec'

Meh

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47F with a very nice night. Cool and showery.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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7 hours ago, Phil said:

NWS forecast looks wintry at Tim’s house. ☃️ 

702DCC6E-A8D6-4F22-B3DD-8C266EA1311F.jpeg

That is so wrong.  That looks like a forecast for Stampede pass!    For starters... Tuesday and Wednesday will be dry and at least party sunny.    Snow and 47 tomorrow?    It probably won't snow at all here over the next week and that shows snow on 5 of the next 7 days. 🤣

Here is the just the next 2 days... these are very nice spring days.  

 

ecmwf-deterministic-nw-t2m_f_max6-9443200 (1).png

ecmwf-deterministic-nw-t2m_f_max6-9529600 (3).png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

That is so wrong.    For starters... Tuesday and Wednesday will be dry and at least party sunny.    Snow and 47 tomorrow?    It probably won't snow at all here over the next week and that shows snow on 5 of the next 7 days. 🤣

Here is the just the next 2 days... these are very nice spring days.  

 

ecmwf-deterministic-nw-t2m_f_max6-9443200 (1).png

ecmwf-deterministic-nw-t2m_f_max6-9529600 (3).png

We're turning the corner, just not completely. It's coming! Tue-Wed will be really nice.

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Just now, Gradient Keeper said:

We're turning the corner, just not completely. It's coming! Tue-Wed will be really nice.

Apparently not... going to be snowing here tomorrow and pouring rain on Wednesday per Phil.    Then we settle in for 4 straight of snow.     More wintry than December.   👍

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 minute ago, Gradient Keeper said:

6z GEFS was VERY snowy, and it shows me what I want, so it's more than likely going to be right.

sn10_acc-mean-imp.us_nw.png

Like Jim said... it would be sweet to have a dollar for every inch of phantom snow the GEFS has shown this winter.   I could quit my job!  

06Z GFS looks less wintry...

gfs-deterministic-KSEA-daily_tmin_tmax-9292000.png

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Just started raining lightly here in the last hour.   About 12 hours later than the models were showing.   SEA NWS said there was an 85% chance of rain in NB by 3 p.m. yesterday.    Our first .01 from this system arrived only 14 hours later.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Happy Astronomical Spring. Do you believe the GFS that it will be snowy over Snoqaulmie Pass the first weekend in April? Debating going to the Mariners game that weekend for Spring Break.

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Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA:

2023-2024 Snowfall totals: 14.3 inches

HIghest snow total (per event): 5.8 inches total 1/11/24 - 1/12/24.

Most recent accumulation (non trace): 0.20 inches on 2/26/24

Days with  trace or more snowfall: 12/01/23 (0.60), 1/8/24 (1.0), 1/10/24 (3.5), 1/11/23 (3.5 inches with Thundersnow; separate event from prior day), 1/12/24 (2.30). 1/14/24 (T), 1/17/24 (1.20 inches), 1/18/24 (1.5 inches), 1/19/24 (0.20), 2/09/24 (0.30), 2/26/24 (0.20-mainly graupel)

First Freeze: 10/27/2023

Last Sub freezing Day: 1/20/24 (12th) (8 days in a row from 1/12/24-1/20/24)

Coldest low: -12F (!!!!!!!!) (1/12/24)

Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location (on ground)

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Just now, LowerGarfield said:

Happy Astronomical Spring. Do you believe the GFS that it will be snowy over Snoqaulmie Pass the first weekend in April? Debating going to the Mariners game that weekend for Spring Break.

I’ll believe it’s possible. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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26 minutes ago, LowerGarfield said:

Happy Astronomical Spring. Do you believe the GFS that it will be snowy over Snoqaulmie Pass the first weekend in April? Debating going to the Mariners game that weekend for Spring Break.

Impossible to know right now... that is still almost 2 weeks away.    We are going to WSU for our last parents weekend on 4/1 and 4/2.

Worth mentioning that even if its snowy... the roads are usually just wet during the day up there by this point in the year.    But if you are coming through when its dark out it could be a different story assuming the pattern is favorable for snow then.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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3 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

That is so wrong.  That looks like a forecast for Stampede pass!    For starters... Tuesday and Wednesday will be dry and at least party sunny.    Snow and 47 tomorrow?    It probably won't snow at all here over the next week and that shows snow on 5 of the next 7 days. 🤣

Here is the just the next 2 days... these are very nice spring days.  

 

ecmwf-deterministic-nw-t2m_f_max6-9443200 (1).png

ecmwf-deterministic-nw-t2m_f_max6-9529600 (3).png

Send an email to the NWS and tell them their point and click forecasts are junk, then? :lol:

They obviously forgot your 2000ft mountaintop estate has the warmest and driest weather in the entire PNW west of the cascades.

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Just now, Phil said:

Send an email to the NWS and tell them their point and click forecasts are junk, then? :lol:

They obviously forgot your 2000ft mountaintop estate has the warmest and driest weather in the entire PNW west of the cascades.

It's actually just barely under 1,000 feet.   But the real problem is there are tall mountains all around us and those point forecasts are worthless for my area.   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Just now, TT-SEA said:

It's actually just barely under 1,000 feet.   But the real problem is there are tall mountains all around us and those point forecasts are worthless for my area.   

So what specifically is wrong with this forecast?

09FCC70A-7633-4AD3-B5D8-C893F0437E07.jpeg

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Ironically one of my cousins from Everett is planning to move to North Bend this summer and start a family. IDK where specifically, but it would be hilarious if he winds up living in Tim’s neighborhood. 😂 Could compare observations and everything!

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1 minute ago, Phil said:

So what specifically is wrong with this forecast?

09FCC70A-7633-4AD3-B5D8-C893F0437E07.jpeg

Mostly sunny tomorrow with rain.  😀

Wednesday will be probably be close to 60.

And there won't be any snow here this work week.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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