PNW March 2023 Weather Discussion (2012 Redux)

[Meatyorologist]

2 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

On the cold troughing front... its interesting that 925mb temps get quite cold for the next 3 days and there isn't much recovery (at least on the west side of the mountains) during the days.   Its really hard to keep 925mb temps around 0C during daylight hours at this time of year.  

Strong westerlies mean less time over land and less mixing.

[MWG]

High of 52F at 1pm. Currently 39F and light rain. It is actually a bit windy even gusts of 30mph. 

[Meatyorologist]

On another front (for lack of a better word), stronger westerlies mean a more easterly based and weaker PSCZ, and probably drier conditions for Seattle. Also stronger upsloping and colder air for the Cascades, some more snow up there. Should be some brilliant cloudscapes from time to time over the next few days.

[BLI snowman]

NAM doing NAM things

 

[TT-SEA]

38 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z GEFS was not even close to what the 18Z run is showing.   It will be interesting to see if the 18Z GEFS is similar to the 12Z GEFS and we just have GFS operational run noise.    That is what I am hoping!  

To follow up... the 18Z GEFS is actually quite a bit closer to the operational run than the 12Z GEFS.   Might be onto something.  

[ShawniganLake]

2 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Probably mid-30s highs at my location tomorrow and Saturday. Record min/max tomorrow at Silver Falls is 36 from 2018, Saturday it is 39 from 2006, which will almost certainly fall. 

Latest sub-freezing high at Silver Falls was on March 21, 2012.

Jesse mentioned the late March 2008 trough as an analog and that is a good call. All the record min/maxes from the 26-29th are from 2008. 35, 37, 36,35 respectively. 

We had a 36/32 day on March 28 that year (2008). And 11” of snow during that late month trough.  Right now I don’t think we will see much if any accumulating snow with this trough. 

[TT-SEA]

Unusual day... 50/40 at SEA but the high and low occurred in the afternoon.   Back in the middle now at 45.

[Timmy]

Last shower had snow mixed in even in town. Drove up, sticking snow around 800’

[T-Town]

Just had a nice squall come through and drop the temp to 43. Blustery!

[Tyler Mode]

Heavy hail and snow mix, down to 35.6.

[SnowySeeker50]

Breezy and the rain is starting to fall.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Messy commute! 

[Cascadia_Wx]

3 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

March 2008 was very cold up here, as was March 2009. I believe they are tied for 3rd coldest March on record behind 1951 and 2012. 

Despite all the milder weather in the past week, as of today PDX is only 0.3F above scoring the coldest March since 1976, and also dethroning 2002 to break into the top 10.

They would have to average something like 52/36 the rest of the month to make it there. 

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

1 hour ago, Phishy Wx said:

too bad it's cloudy....

 

 

From my buddy in Finland. I’ll be out all night praying for a break in the clouds. 

[Phil]

Jealous of all this fun wx you guys are getting. Like the stars are aligned for greatness in the west this year. 

84°F today  

[TacomaWx]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

Jealous of all this fun wx you guys are getting. Like the stars are aligned for greatness in the west this year. 

84°F today  

The best of this event the next few days will probably be Oregon…they’ve been getting the bulk of the fun weather since the late February blast it seems. Little bit of payback for the last few years. Will probably be fairly interesting up this way too but they’ve probably got a little better shot at some spotty lowland sticking snow than up here. 

[TT-SEA]

Looked like a strong cell moving towards my area but it blew so fast it was barely noticeable... strong wind now.  

The 18Z ECMWF parks the c-zone right over King County tomorrow evening into early Saturday morning.   If it works out this way it will probably mean about 4 inches of snow at my house. 

 

[MossMan]

5 hours ago, ShawniganLake said:

Euro shows some scattered pockets of lowland snow over the next couple of days.  You can definitely tell that people’s interests have shifted to something more warm season based.  This place is much busier with any potential lowland snow in December or January. 

I’m ready for my foot of weekend snow!! 

[GHweatherChris]

I reluctantly raised my winter grade to a D-, had 10" of snow accumulation total but it took 11 events to reach that and none ever stuck around more than a couple hours.  Horrible compared to the last several winters but still well above long term average of snowfall in this area.  Any snow over the next couple days will be spring snow, so it cannot help improve winter score.  But all in all, it was a fun model ride winter with more potential showing than normal, things just didn't line up enough times to make it memorable.

[TacomaWx]

7 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

I reluctantly raised my winter grade to a D-, had 10" of snow accumulation total but it took 11 events to reach that and none ever stuck around more than a couple hours.  Horrible compared to the last several winters but still well above long term average of snowfall in this area.  Any snow over the next couple days will be spring snow, so it cannot help improve winter score.  But all in all, it was a fun model ride winter with more potential showing than normal, things just didn't line up enough times to make it memorable.

Yeah that was the story of the winter here in most of western WA south of about Everett. Tons of opportunities but we were just never really in the bullseye. The small snows were fun and stuck around for a couple days here and there…but there was a lot of wasted potential for how many shots we had at something. 

[GHweatherChris]

4 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Yeah that was the story of the winter here in most of western WA south of about Everett. Tons of opportunities but we were just never really in the bullseye. The small snows were fun and stuck around for a couple days here and there…but there was a lot of wasted potential for how many shots we had at something. 

Yep, this is the first winter in several years we did not have at least a solid couple inches of snow stick around for multiple days on multiple occastions, oh well.

[Meatyorologist]

26 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Yeah that was the story of the winter here in most of western WA south of about Everett. Tons of opportunities but we were just never really in the bullseye. The small snows were fun and stuck around for a couple days here and there…but there was a lot of wasted potential for how many shots we had at something. 

One has to wonder if our ever increasing exposure to internal weather-related information via the internet is warping our perception of just how close we are to recieving snow during many of our winter storms, even when they aren't as favorable for sticking lowland snow as modeled.

Take the current iteration of the GFS, with its worsening phantom snow issues, and put it in a year like 2007-08 or or 1952-53, and this forum would probably feel cheated out of an 1861-62 redux.

[Cascadia_Wx]

2 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

One has to wonder if our ever increasing exposure to internal weather-related information via the internet is warping our perception of just how close we are to recieving snow during many of our winter storms, even when they aren't as favorable for sticking lowland snow as modeled.

Take the current iteration of the GFS, with its worsening phantom snow issues, and put it in a year like 2007-08 or or 1952-53, and this forum would probably feel cheated out of an 1861-62 redux.

I was thinking about the same thing. Great point. This should be a featured post.

[MossMan]

It’s here! 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Two lightning strikes very close with heavy snow. Unbelievable. 

[Ken in Wood Village]

With the colder air moving in, we have a couple of thunderstorms!!

[mtep]

Apparently my mom got some snow in sudden valley a bit ago. I said pics or it didnt happen and she said "it stopped" so who knows. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, Ken in Wood Village said:

With the colder air moving in, we have a couple of thunderstorms!!

Those strikes were basically over my house. 

[FroYoBro]

8 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Two lightning strikes very close with heavy snow. Unbelievable. 

**** yeah! We all love this weather! YESSSSSSSSSSSSSSssSSSDDDDDSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[TacomaWx]

19 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

One has to wonder if our ever increasing exposure to internal weather-related information via the internet is warping our perception of just how close we are to recieving snow during many of our winter storms, even when they aren't as favorable for sticking lowland snow as modeled.

Take the current iteration of the GFS, with its worsening phantom snow issues, and put it in a year like 2007-08 or or 1952-53, and this forum would probably feel cheated out of an 1861-62 redux.

That is true and I admit honestly hadn’t thought about it like that before. We had 4 windows of opportunity this year, Late Nov/early Dec. Then Late Dec, Late Jan, and then Late Feb. You’d figure with how often the upper level pattern was favorable it would have worked out better but we’ve had some good years recently so hard to complain a lot. 

 The 2 events that stung the most was 2/28 then 12/20 was the worst. Low came in a little too far north on 12/20 and the southerlies punched in…and precip cut off just as the cold air worked in. Could’ve been a big 12/26/21 type event for the sound with just a slight adjustment. 
 
Everyone has a different way of “grading” winters and this one gets a high grade from me still despite that. I’m more of a statistical kind of guy, and the overall below normal regime this winter and the frequent snowfalls was cool to me. Statistically it checked a lot of boxes. 

[Anti Marine Layer]

Yes, it's been cold

[Phil]

Front yard cherry blossom erupted just after sunset tonight. Probably about 80% of peak bloom atm.

[Phil]

WTF I can see the aurora!! I thought it was city lights and haze at first.

[Tyler Mode]

If you get clear skies tonight...the aurora are going big time!

[Phil]

Wow it’s visible all the way down to Asheville NC.

 

[GHweatherChris]

1 hour ago, Meatyorologist said:

One has to wonder if our ever increasing exposure to internal weather-related information via the internet is warping our perception of just how close we are to recieving snow during many of our winter storms, even when they aren't as favorable for sticking lowland snow as modeled.

Take the current iteration of the GFS, with its worsening phantom snow issues, and put it in a year like 2007-08 or or 1952-53, and this forum would probably feel cheated out of an 1861-62 redux.

I agree to an extent, but the air masses supported snow here many times but the precip never quite made it here this winter at the right time.  I mostly concentrate on current 925 temps when moisture is available during the winter than basing my thoughts on the models.

925 temps supported snow several times this winter but the moisture just never concentrated enough here, always just north or south of here, proven by less than 10 miles driven north and south a few times to confirm.

[Phil]

And now a lightning show has replaced the aurora as clouds move in from the NW. I’m in awe. Absolutely incredible!!!

Probably the only time in my life I’ll get to see the aurora and lightning at the same time.

[MossMan]

33.9 and snowing. 

[GHweatherChris]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

And now a lightning show has replaced the aurora as clouds move in from the NW. I’m in awe. Absolutely incredible!!!

Probably the only time in my life I’ll get to see the aurora and lightning at the same time.

Pics or video or it didn't happen, you know the rules for you Phil.

[TacomaWx]

2 minutes ago, Phil said:

And now a lightning show has replaced the aurora as clouds move in from the NW. I’m in awe. Absolutely incredible!!!

Probably the only time in my life I’ll get to see the aurora and lightning at the same time.

pICs oR iT DIDnT HaPpeN