PNW March 2023 Weather Discussion (2012 Redux)

[Phil]

1 minute ago, GHweatherChris said:

Pics or video or it didn't happen, you know the rules for you Phil.

I took a video!

[Phil]

And now severe thunderstorm warning.

I feel like a little kid again. This winter did its damndest to ruin my passion for weather, but tonight is making up for it.

Sorry for the spam guys. I’ll stfu now. Lol

[Winterdog]

21 minutes ago, MossMan said:

33.9 and snowing. 

40F and not snowing or even close to snowing.

[AlTahoe]

6 hours ago, Phil said:

Another day in the low 80s.  

4 days ago wind chills were ~ 10°F. Trying to acclimate to the inevitable but mother nature keeps throwing knuckleballs.

I am still about 3 months away from possible low 80's.

It makes sense though as we are on pace to have the coldest March ever recorded. When we are cold your area torches. 

[MWG]

Well I went to watch tv and forgot about all this and just went outside to let the dog out.

[MossMan]

9 minutes ago, Winterdog said:

40F and not snowing or even close to snowing.

Back to 34.9 and a mix now. 

[Winterdog]

5 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Back to 34.9 and a mix now. 

The radar went from snow north and west of me to all rain in like one minute.  

[Cascadia_Wx]

Coast range seems hungry tonight up this way. Down to 39 tho.

[Dave]

36 degrees with partly cloudy skies. Had several graupel showers earlier whenever heavy precip occurred. 

Sad that I've never seen the Aurora. Looks like an incredible storm is underway now. 

[Skagit Weather]

Picked up 0.43" of rain here earlier with a little hail mixed in as the temperature dropped from 51F to 37F. Kind of crazy that that makes it second wettest day of the year here so far.

[TT-SEA]

Zags!   What an ending.  One of the craziest last minute you will ever see.

[BLI snowman]

6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Zags!   What an ending.  One of the craziest last minute you will ever see.

Did their best to give that one away.

[Dave]

Just saw a tweet that the Aurora is visible from the Mt Shasta area. 

[MossMan]

Looking at the radar I bet it’s snowing at our family Lake Goodwin house. 
Down to 33.7 here. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

2 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Two lightning strikes very close with heavy snow. Unbelievable. 

Been a good cold season for thundersnow.

[Front Ranger]

1 hour ago, AlTahoe said:

I am still about 3 months away from possible low 80's.

It makes sense though as we are on pace to have the coldest March ever recorded. When we are cold your area torches. 

Where does this winter rank now for your area, in terms of snow/cold?

[Rubus Leucodermis]

4 minutes ago, Dave said:

Just saw a tweet that the Aurora is visible from the Mt Shasta area. 

Mostly clear in Kamloops right now. Maybe I should get in my truck, start driving, and call in sick tomorrow.

[GHweatherChris]

13 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Did their best to give that one away.

But gave their best to win it.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Both Euro and Goofus say a little snow overnight IMBY. We shall see.

 

[Dave]

8 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Mostly clear in Kamloops right now. Maybe I should get in my truck, start driving, and call in sick tomorrow.

You probably just need to go to any location with a clear northern view. Even with city lights, you still have a shot.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 minute ago, Dave said:

You probably just need to go to any location with a clear northern view. Even with city lights, you still have a shot.

Socked in with overcast here. To get “clear” tonight I have to drive east to someplace with a drier climate, which probably means Kamloops or maybe Merritt if I am lucky.

[MikeInEverett]

Wow the CZ over Arlington is INTENSE

[snow_wizard]

Kold GFS run!

I'm really hoping we can get some snow in this area during the next 2 or 3 days.  A lot of potential with the air mass certainly cold enough at times.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

HRDPS says tomorrow night might be interesting IMBY.

[Dave]

7 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Socked in with overcast here. To get “clear” tonight I have to drive east to someplace with a drier climate, which probably means Kamloops or maybe Merritt if I am lucky.

That sucks. Probably not worth it. They are notorious for putting on a good show for 10 minutes and then going poof.

[snow_wizard]

10 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Socked in with overcast here. To get “clear” tonight I have to drive east to someplace with a drier climate, which probably means Kamloops or maybe Merritt if I am lucky.

The current space weather auroral oval graphic shows the lights should be visible as far south as northern WA right now.

Interestingly this event is being cause by a coronal hole as opposed to a solar flare / CME.

[Phishy Wx]

green 'ish' haze on the horizon here.  not enough for my phone camera to pick up.  will try again before bed

[Rubus Leucodermis]

3 minutes ago, Dave said:

That sucks. Probably not worth it. They are notorious for putting on a good show for 10 minutes and then going poof.

Yup, caught the end of a display a couple years ago when I was living in Bellingham. By the time I got out of town to where it was good and dark, gone. Plus the highway cams show Coquihalla Pass is getting a snowstorm tonight.

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

HRDPS says tomorrow night might be interesting IMBY.

The ECMWF has been bullish for this area tomorrow night, but I'm not holding my breath.  At least the air mass is shown to certainly be cold enough.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

The ECMWF has been bullish for this area tomorrow night, but I'm not holding my breath.  At least the air mass is shown to certainly be cold enough.

We shall see. I am frankly not the most optimistic about this. Have had crap luck with scoring snow in March in the PNW lowlands. But those -2˚C 925 mbar temps are encouraging.

[Dave]

6 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The current space weather auroral oval graphic shows the lights should be visible as far south as northern WA right now.

Interestingly this event is being cause by a coronal hole as opposed to a solar flare / CME.

 

[TacomaWx]

6 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The ECMWF has been bullish for this area tomorrow night, but I'm not holding my breath.  At least the air mass is shown to certainly be cold enough.

Yeah pretty much 0 expectations from me as well besides some flakes in the air at some point the next couple days. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Winter tidings. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

9 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Winter tidings. 

That brings back memories of High School. The track team was always having its practices and meets cancelled by spring snowfalls.

[snow_wizard]

Stampede Pass is down to 26 with strong onshore flow.  Impressively cold maritime polar air mass!

[snow_wizard]

16 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Yeah pretty much 0 expectations from me as well besides some flakes in the air at some point the next couple days. 

The thing that gets me is the ECMWF is going for 925mb temps of -3 late tomorrow night.  It's almost more a question of moisture than anything.  The moisture will be around, but it's hard to know where the bullseyes will be.

[TT-SEA]

10 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The thing that gets me is the ECMWF is going for 925mb temps of -3 late tomorrow night.  It's almost more a question of moisture than anything.  The moisture will be around, but it's hard to know where the bullseyes will be.

Very confusing... 925mb of -3C with a south wind all night.    Not sure what to make of that but I think it does come down to moisture and c-zone placement.  And I think the tendency will be for the c-zone to lift north by early Saturday morning.

[snow_wizard]

I think the next month is going to tell the tale on ENSO for this summer and beyond.  Still a decent chance of avoiding a Nino.  Chances for a Nina next winter are only about 5% though.

Right now I'm going for a mid year peak to weak Nino status (not official Nino though) and then falling to neutral in the autumn.  I reserve the right to change my mind though.

[Dave]

From the NWS Spokane office. 

 

[Slushy Inch]

21 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Very confusing... 925mb of -3C with a south wind all night.    Not sure what to make of that but I think it does come down to moisture and c-zone placement.  And I think the tendency will be for the c-zone to lift north by early Saturday morning.

I am annoyed that it feels like the PSCZ has mostly focused on Everett and north  for the last several months. Or at least it has mostly missed my area.