Jump to content

PNW March 2023 Weather Discussion (2012 Redux)


Requiem

Recommended Posts

The ECMWF shows several inches of phantom snow for SEA again.  Wish I could have a dollar for every inch it has shown here since mid Feb.

  • Like 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Probably not the whole month. 

You never know though.  This pattern is locked.  We had better pray we don't have a Nino next winter.  Very cold springs like this followed by a Nino are toxic.  1982 and 2002 are great examples.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, snow_wizard said:

The ECMWF shows several inches of phantom snow for SEA again.  Wish I could have a dollar for every inch it has shown here since mid Feb.

This has already been talked about ad nauseum, but it does amaze me that with all of the upgrades to the models in recent years they seem to be spitting out more accumulating 35-36 degree snow than ever before. You’d think getting the temperature at which snow sticks right would be a pretty basic thing for an incredibly advanced weather model that can accurately predict complex 500mb patterns at great range. Maybe I’m missing something.

  • Like 7

Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

The ECMWF shows several inches of phantom snow for SEA again.  Wish I could have a dollar for every inch it has shown here since mid Feb.

Kuchera map doesn't show much for Seattle.   Definitely need to use Kuchera at this point because 10:1 ratios are pretty much impossible.    

That being said... even the Kuchera showed several inches of snow for a large part of King County happening over the last 2 days and over 6 inches for my area and we got nothing.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Most precip would be south of WA.  Troughs don't always mean wet.  Look at 1985.  constant troughs and it was quite dry much of the year.

Sounds like a nightmare. Like constantly going to fancy restaurants and looking at the menu and picking out what you want, but never ordering any food.

Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I was trying to think of a good analog for the last couple of months. Maybe 1985? What y'all think?!

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Got down to 35F under a snow shower a bit ago. One of the later snows I can remember.

  • Like 4
  • scream 1

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

24

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

You never know though.  This pattern is locked.  We had better pray we don't have a Nino next winter.  Very cold springs like this followed by a Nino are toxic.  1982 and 2002 are great examples.

Or it ends up like 2018 and starts torching by late April. 

  • Sick 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, Doinko said:

March right now is the wettest since 2017 at PDX. 2018-2022 were all dry though

That was a very wet March. This one is just slightly above average. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

That was a very wet March. This one is just slightly above average. 

2016/2017 was really wet for CA but it was also really wet for us outside of December/January. Haven't really seen the really wet conditions here this winter. 2012 was also a really wet March

Link to comment
Share on other sites

14 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Or it ends up like 2018 and starts torching by late April. 

Also a Nina to Nino transition year... and the drought in CA had largely been eradicated at this time in 2018.

Screenshot_20230325-125848_Google.jpg

  • Like 1

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Woke up randomly around 3 AM and noticed it looked unusually bright and peeked outside. Everything was covered in snow including the roads and it was coming down at a good rate still. Had snow the previous morning too but not on the roads. 

I hadn't been tracking the models or even reading the forum much at all, was actually really nice to experience accumulating snow like that without any model riding, knowledge of how much would fall or how long it would last. Just watched it for a while and enjoyed it for what it was. 

Overall it has been a pretty darn nice season with snow visiting the low elevations often. 

  • Like 9
Link to comment
Share on other sites

30 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

You never know though.  This pattern is locked.  We had better pray we don't have a Nino next winter.  Very cold springs like this followed by a Nino are toxic.  1982 and 2002 are great examples.

Next winter has dud written all over it. Or dudderino if you’re not into the whole brevity thing. Should be a good winter to get caught up on work lost due to previous model riding. 

  • Like 1
  • lol 3
  • Weenie 1

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

14 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

12z EPS looking good into the long range.

D8CEB9DC-92FB-4236-9CB8-C96082BDFBAA.png

You can see the path to April Miracles. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Sounds like a nightmare. Like constantly going to fancy restaurants and looking at the menu and picking out what you want, but never ordering any food.

I love cold troughs in general.

  • Sun 1
  • scream 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

If that trough at the beginning of April ends up similar to this one and forms a convergence zone right over MBY again maybe I’ll be able to have recorded snow for 6 straight months. That would be pretty impressive though January was just a dusting and not anything measurable there was still at least snow falling and snow on the ground.

  • Like 1

2023 - 2024 Cold Season Stats

Total Snowfall - 0.75”

Max Snow Depth - 0.5”

Coldest High Temp - 21 (Jan 13)

Coldest Low Temp - 9 (Jan 13)

Number of Freezes - 48

Sub-40 highs - 12

Highs 32 or lower - 3

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Deweydog said:

Next winter has dud written all over it. Or dudderino if you’re not into the whole brevity thing. Should be a good winter to get caught up on work lost due to previous model riding. 

I think we could keep the party going one more season.  We'll have to see what ENSO ends up doing.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, Cold Snap said:

If that trough at the beginning of April ends up similar to this one and forms a convergence zone right over MBY again maybe I’ll be able to have recorded snow for 6 straight months. That would be pretty impressive though January was just a dusting and not anything measurable there was still at least snow falling and snow on the ground.

Very possible.  We have really shanked it on snow in the Puget Sound area since the early part of the winter though.

  • Like 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

Also a Nina to Nino transition year... and the drought in CA had largely been eradicated at this time in 2018.

Screenshot_20230325-125848_Google.jpg

2017/2018 was extremely dry in California though. The drought had mostly been eradicated from 2016/2017 I thought

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Like Jim mentioned earlier…The snow will always melt, though I have some left in places! 
Anyway, looks like I had .49” through the rain gauge as the snow finished melting. 
Up to 4.94” of precip on the month. 
43 degrees. 

E6617B32-D54A-48B6-87E4-A4183C3E6CF7.jpeg

AF620E80-6719-4F28-871F-9A45A69AD028.jpeg

  • Like 1

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Thank you. AI bots 🤖 are known to spread misinformation at times, unintentionally or otherwise.

Hope you get banned soon.  Unilateral personal attacks are childish.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

16 minutes ago, Doinko said:

2017/2018 was extremely dry in California though. The drought had mostly been eradicated from 2016/2017 I thought

Did not say it was eradicated that spring.   I said there was very little CA drought that spring as it had been eradicated. 

  • Like 2

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Like Jim mentioned earlier…The snow will always melt, though I have some left in places! 
Anyway, looks like I had .49” through the rain gauge as the snow finished melting. 
Up to 4.94” of precip on the month. 
43 degrees. 

E6617B32-D54A-48B6-87E4-A4183C3E6CF7.jpeg

AF620E80-6719-4F28-871F-9A45A69AD028.jpeg

Looks like I missed a few spots when I went up there with the blowtorch this morning 😂

  • lol 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

14 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Did not say it was eradicated that spring.   I said there was very little CA drought that spring as it had been eradicated. 

Sorry, I misread that. I guess that winter was kind of similar up here in the lowlands. We had the brush with arctic air in late December and the late February snow. And the March trough like this one. The mountains didn't do well though. And some snow in early November up north

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Sorry, I misread that. I guess that winter was kind of similar up here in the lowlands. We had the brush with arctic air in late December and the late February snow. And the March trough like this one. The mountains didn't do well though. And some snow in early November up north

One would think the extremely different pattern for most of this winter would make a difference in the analogs going forward.Especially different in California and the SW. But we have found a way to torch every warm season the last ten years so it wouldn’t surprise me if that happened again.

Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

Link to comment
Share on other sites

25 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Sorry, I misread that. I guess that winter was kind of similar up here in the lowlands. We had the brush with arctic air in late December and the late February snow. And the March trough like this one. The mountains didn't do well though. And some snow in early November up north

Patterns never continue along the same path... and we are quite a bit further along with transitioning out of the Nina than at this time in 2018.   No idea if that means anything.

 

2018.png

2023 (6).png

  • Like 3

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

51 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Very possible.  We have really shanked it on snow in the Puget Sound area since the early part of the winter though.

As much as it may seem we missed out on some opportunities, we also really made the best of a lot of marginal lower chance ones. Particularly in late November and December. Sometimes you gotta have the more glass half full instead of half empty approach on things. 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

This has already been talked about ad nauseum, but it does amaze me that with all of the upgrades to the models in recent years they seem to be spitting out more accumulating 35-36 degree snow than ever before. You’d think getting the temperature at which snow sticks right would be a pretty basic thing for an incredibly advanced weather model that can accurately predict complex 500mb patterns at great range. Maybe I’m missing something.

I guess they count any rain:snow ratio as all snow with a 10:1 water equivalent. You just have to read it like that. If you are forecast 4" on the Euro, and it's just 0.4" of rain with a few snowflakes mixing in, that's technically a success for the model's architecture. It successfully predicted that 0.4" of liquid equivalent precipitation fell while frozen precip was also reaching the ground. Obviously for our observed weather that forecast is pretty ass, but that's my best guess as to what the models are thinking when they shit out half a foot of 38F suspicious rain. They're probably wearing special glasses that see either rain or snow, without any in between.

Not to mention the GFS has a new Cascade gap issue, where the Snoqualmie and White River gaps allow way too much easterly influence, meaning actual phantom snow situations where airmasses are imported erroneously. That and the whole issue of airmasses verifying warmer than modeled as they advect in, as well as undermodeled friction in BC, bringing in Arctic air too early.

  • Like 4

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

Link to comment
Share on other sites

other than the random graupel or snow shower we ain't getting crap over here.  Local news weather folks already telling people to get ready for fire season and drought if this pattern continues through spring.  A Nino pending will be a big OOF!  As soon is its warm enough I need to turn on irrigation this year.  last year I made it to late may.  not going to happen this year without a pattern change.

  • Weenie 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

I guess they count any rain:snow ratio as all snow with a 10:1 water equivalent. You just have to read it like that. If you are forecast 4" on the Euro, and it's just 0.4" of rain with a few snowflakes mixing in, that's technically a success for the model's architecture. It successfully predicted that 0.4" of liquid equivalent precipitation fell while frozen precip was also reaching the ground. Obviously for our observed weather that forecast is pretty a**, but that's my best guess as to what the models are thinking when they out half a foot of 38F suspicious rain. They're probably wearing special glasses that see either rain or snow, without any in between.

Not to mention the GFS has a new Cascade gap issue, where the Snoqualmie and White River gaps allow way too much easterly influence, meaning actual phantom snow situations where airmasses are imported erroneously. That and the whole issue of airmasses verifying warmer than modeled as they advect in, as well as undermodeled friction in BC, bringing in Arctic air too early.

Pretty frustrating that the GFS got worse after the upgrade.   And it seems like the ECMWF has gotten a little worse as well.   Or maybe it just feels like it because we had so many marginal set ups this year.

  • Like 1

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

other than the random graupel or snow shower we ain't getting crap over here.  Local news weather folks already telling people to get ready for fire season and drought if this pattern continues through spring.  A Nino pending will be a big OOF!  As soon is its warm enough I need to turn on irrigation this year.  last year I made it to late may.  not going to happen this year without a pattern change.

A lot can change between now and summer. Good or bad. The news stuff sounds like typical media sensationalism. And like we were talking about the other day you guys really aren’t in terrible shape over there.  Really solid winter with well above average snowfall, and Spokane is at average for the water year to date. Just need to get April-June to behave.

  • Like 3

Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Unfortunately, your content contains terms that we do not allow. Please edit your content to remove the highlighted words below.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
×
×
  • Create New...