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PNW March 2023 Weather Discussion (2012 Redux)


Requiem

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Pretty frustrating that the GFS got worse after the upgrade.   And it seems like the ECMWF has gotten a little worse as well.   Or maybe it just feels like it because we had so many marginal set ups this year.

It could be worse from a local perspective, but more accurate on a whole when looking at 500mb height verification around the globe. I would rather take improvements there, since surface details can be roughed out and interpreted.

Despite their flailing in the snowfall department, I've only been completely bamboozled by the models a few times this winter. You just got to know how they think.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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9 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

other than the random graupel or snow shower we ain't getting crap over here.  Local news weather folks already telling people to get ready for fire season and drought if this pattern continues through spring.  A Nino pending will be a big OOF!  As soon is its warm enough I need to turn on irrigation this year.  last year I made it to late may.  not going to happen this year without a pattern change.

These cold troughs are a pretty bad deal for your area. The colder airmasses mean less moisture throughout the column and lower PWATs, and the WNW flow associated with these systems fits the concave shape of the Cascades perfectly, maximizing lift on their westerly face. The mountains schlorp up all the rain and snow before it can even touch the Columbia, leaving you with table scraps, or nothing at all.

I imagine we'll get a nice period of SW flow, where a fat juicy AR can saturate the steppes with fresh Hawaiian-imported blessings.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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32 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

Plenty of sun today and I haven’t seen any rain fall here, yet temps are in the mid-40s across the PDX metro. Goes to show how cold this upper level airmass is. A Jim kind of day for sure.

PDX will find a way to hit 50.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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It was snowing pretty hard in Seattle last night near Greenlake around 1:30am. Big flakes and got down to 34 degrees.

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Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 91"

2023-24: 6"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

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20 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

I guess they count any rain:snow ratio as all snow with a 10:1 water equivalent. You just have to read it like that. If you are forecast 4" on the Euro, and it's just 0.4" of rain with a few snowflakes mixing in, that's technically a success for the model's architecture. It successfully predicted that 0.4" of liquid equivalent precipitation fell while frozen precip was also reaching the ground. Obviously for our observed weather that forecast is pretty a**, but that's my best guess as to what the models are thinking when they out half a foot of 38F suspicious rain. They're probably wearing special glasses that see either rain or snow, without any in between.

Not to mention the GFS has a new Cascade gap issue, where the Snoqualmie and White River gaps allow way too much easterly influence, meaning actual phantom snow situations where airmasses are imported erroneously. That and the whole issue of airmasses verifying warmer than modeled as they advect in, as well as undermodeled friction in BC, bringing in Arctic air too early.

Doesn’t seem to have the same issue with cold onshore flow. I’ve given up on rooting for anything else. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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At least this colder weather means lower rates of evaporation from the soil. What made 2015 and 2016 really bad was the warm/dry combo. All the evaporation in the world, with nothing much in the soil to be evaporated

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Doesn’t seem to have the same issue with cold onshore flow. I’ve given up on rooting for anything else. 

That'll happen when you apply the subtle little trick of living a quarter mile up!

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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9 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

That'll happen when you apply the subtle little trick of living a quarter mile up!

I never look at a snow map to tell me if it’s going to snow.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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image.png

Always nice to see this appearing again.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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ECMWF is going for possible frost tonight for many places and a likely heavy frost tomorrow night.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 minute ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

Aurora IMBY 3/23/23C6AC8DCE-481B-49B8-AD5A-58736B8F22A5.thumb.jpeg.69907720a7105c156513029461fc1b23.jpeg

 

B90CE0DF-C07D-47F1-AAA8-93373E4CB5C5.thumb.jpeg.8fdc98cc2bc47a8089217a89c68a4b4d.jpeg

That's a two or three times in a lifetime Auroura for this area.  I saw one like that around 1980 or so.  The only time I've seen colors other than green.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Speaking of the Northern Lights...this recent event had an even more rare aspect to it.  STEVE was actually visible over WA for a time.  Can't remember exactly what the acronym stands for, but it only happens with some Auroras.

Image

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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10 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

Aurora IMBY 3/23/23C6AC8DCE-481B-49B8-AD5A-58736B8F22A5.thumb.jpeg.69907720a7105c156513029461fc1b23.jpeg

 

B90CE0DF-C07D-47F1-AAA8-93373E4CB5C5.thumb.jpeg.8fdc98cc2bc47a8089217a89c68a4b4d.jpeg

So beautiful. 

  • Like 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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I am seriously bummed we didn't get to see that amazing event here due to cloud cover.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

So beautiful. 

Those are some of the most amazing Aurora pics I've seen.  The scattered clouds made it even better.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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-10 departure at SLE today. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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4 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

I mentioned this yesterday... in the Ag Weather update on Thursday they talked about the MJO going into phase 6 and 7 next and showed that is a cold pattern for the PNW in April.    It might not warm up until the second half of April.  

It’ll probably warm up right as you leave for SC.

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5 minutes ago, Phil said:

It’ll probably warm up right as you leave for SC.

Ironically that exact thing happened in 2018.   It was in the 80s here when we were in Charleston.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

-10 departure at SLE today. 

Pretty lame here today.  It actually got up to 49, which is chilly, but not THAT chilly.  Hopefully we can at least get some good mins up here.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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2 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Patterns never continue along the same path... and we are quite a bit further along with transitioning out of the Nina than at this time in 2018.   No idea if that means anything.

 

2018.png

2023 (6).png

North/South Pacific Meridional Modes are inverted with respect to 2018 though. Don’t think it’s a viable analog as far as NH weather patterns are concerned, outside any overlap in MJO/intraseasonal oscillations.

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2 minutes ago, Phil said:

North/South Pacific Meridional Modes are inverted with respect to 2018 though. Don’t think it’s a viable analog as far as NH weather patterns are concerned, outside any overlap in MJO/intraseasonal oscillations.

Time will tell.   I didn't say it was an analog... people were just talking about the similarities this year in regard to our local weather.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Pretty lame here today.  It actually got up to 49, which is chilly, but not THAT chilly.  Hopefully we can at least get some good mins up here.

SLE was 45/33. 36/30 here. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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4 minutes ago, Phil said:

North/South Pacific Meridional Modes are inverted with respect to 2018 though. Don’t think it’s a viable analog as far as NH weather patterns are concerned, outside any overlap in MJO/intraseasonal oscillations.

That -PDO right now is quite profound.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

SLE was 45/33. 36/30 here. 

As weird as it sounds we have just been too far north to cash in on these last few troughs.  850s have gotten cold and all of that, but it just hasn't translated at the surface for cold max temps and snowfall.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Just now, snow_wizard said:

As weird as it sounds we have just been too far north to cash in on these last few troughs.  850s have gotten cold and all of that, but it just hasn't translated at the surface for cold max temps and snowfall.

It makes sense. 2012 was similar in that sense. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

As weird as it sounds we have just been too far north to cash in on these last few troughs.  850s have gotten cold and all of that, but it just hasn't translated at the surface for cold max temps and snowfall.

Lots of sun too.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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23 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Speaking of the Northern Lights...this recent event had an even more rare aspect to it.  STEVE was actually visible over WA for a time.  Can't remember exactly what the acronym stands for, but it only happens with some Auroras.

Image

I missed him 😞

PWS: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KWAPORTA220

2023-2024 Snow Total: 18" (6 events)

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26 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Went back to the July 2019 thread. This was a really great storm on the 1st. Heavy hail with it too

 

wdDsUVe.jpg

V9EgiHm.jpg

I really hope we can see a year for thunderstorms like that again. There was the 6/26/2019 thunderstorm, I think something on the 27th too. Then another big one on 7/1, and then in September there was a tornado less than 5 miles away and then we managed 2" of rain in an hour on the next day

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5 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

You never know though.  This pattern is locked.  We had better pray we don't have a Nino next winter.  Very cold springs like this followed by a Nino are toxic.  1982 and 2002 are great examples.

With the snow we have had this year going into an El Nino 1982-1983 would be the only analog coming up. 

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HEAVY SNOW!

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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