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PNW March 2023 Weather Discussion (2012 Redux)


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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Yes... I was comparing it to persistently rainy pattern from late March through early June last year.  Which is why I said at least so far.    I did not enjoy that very troughy period too much... but this has been quite enjoyable and looks to continue.   Devil is in the details as usual.  

Okay, now I will make a similar comparison. 

This year has been very enjoyable so far. Much cooler than last summer. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 minute ago, Doinko said:

I've been scrolling through the summer 2019 threads the past few days and it was a great year for thunderstorms. It's been pretty bad recently for storms. I saw one distant flash of lightning in August 2022 and heard some thunder in September but that's all I remember in the past few years. I think 2008 was a good year for them?

2008 and 2009 were good years for those in Washington County. '08 actually had a fair number of warmer core convection and ones that lasted overnight into AM hours. In '09, there was of course that outbreak in June but most of that year's t'storms were in the transition seasons. I remember not having any thunder between mid-June to early October 2009 which was an unusual gap in activity. 

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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And FWIW, the reason the globe cools during La Niña years is because of increased heat/radiation uptake by the oceans. IE: The system is absorbing more energy. The opposite is true during El Niño. This is confirmed via satellite derived estimates of the radiation budget at the TOA.

If we were to hypothetically remain in an unbroken La Niña for the next 50+ years, the globe would actually warm with time (after any short term cooling at onset), all else being equal. Vice versa for El Niño.

The transition into a more +ENSO dominant state during the late 1200s/early 1300s preceded the LIA cooling trend by at least a century. Meanwhile, as Andrew mentioned, the post-WWII era has been La Niña dominant, and we have observed warming.

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7 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Okay, now I will make a similar comparison. 

This year has been very enjoyable so far. Much cooler than last summer. 

Not quite the same.   First of all the really wet pattern started in earnest in my area in late March last year so it is a similar time of year.   More broadly we have been in a persistently troughy pattern during the spring season for the last month.   Last year we had a persistently troughy pattern in the spring season as well... just a little later.   This spring's troughy pattern is far different than last year.  At least so far.   

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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2 minutes ago, Phil said:

Andrew is gonna love the 12z EPS. 🥶 

Its just the same as the ECMWF run.  

I have learned over the last 8 weeks that the pattern shown below on the EPS in the long range actually means another deep trough over the SW... its been happening over and over again.   

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-0804000 (1).png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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10 minutes ago, Phil said:

And FWIW, the reason the globe cools during La Niña years is because of increased heat/radiation uptake by the oceans. IE: The system is absorbing more energy. The opposite is true during El Niño. This is confirmed via satellite derived estimates of the radiation budget at the TOA.

If we were to hypothetically remain in an unbroken La Niña for the next 50+ years, the globe would actually warm with time (after any short term cooling at onset), all else being equal. Vice versa for El Niño.

The transition into a more +ENSO dominant state during the late 1200s/early 1300s preceded the LIA cooling trend by at least a century. Meanwhile, as Andrew mentioned, the post-WWII era has been La Niña dominant, and we have observed warming.

Interesting. I am actually fairly agnostic in terms of ENSO and what I "root" for. 2021 was pretty much the opposite of what we would typically expect from a Nina, whereas 2019 was essentially the opposite of what we would expect from a Nino (The late winter spring specifically.). Some of those Ninos in the 1950-1976 time period delivered bigly in the PNW lowlands. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Interesting. I am actually fairly agnostic in terms of ENSO and what I "root" for. 2021 was pretty much the opposite of what we would typically expect from a Nina, whereas 2019 was essentially the opposite of what we would expect from a Nino (The late winter spring specifically.). Some of those Ninos in the 1950-1976 time period delivered bigly in the PNW lowlands. 

I cheer against strong Ninas and strong Ninos... somewhere in the middle tends to produce more enjoyable weather (i.e. variable).

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Its just the same as the ECMWF run.  

I have learned over the last 8 weeks that the pattern shown below on the EPS in the long range actually means another deep trough over the SW... it been happening over and over again.    

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-0804000 (1).png

It’s similar, but not the same. NPAC/GOA, specifically.

783CF36A-0D7C-4577-A418-AD4F92D2D38E.gif

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I will also say I have a ton of work that needs to be done on the property this year. Though I hope the cool pattern continues, I hope we are done with 8" of snow on the ground. Beautiful sunny skies right now, and even though it's very chilly in the upper 30s, it feels nice. Can't get much work done though with 8" of slop on the ground. Sure is pretty though. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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4 minutes ago, Phil said:

It’s similar, but not the same.

783CF36A-0D7C-4577-A418-AD4F92D2D38E.gif

It will very likely be the same as it gets closer.   The blended mean that far out hides the finer details.   Again... this has been the repeating pattern over and over and it looks to continue.    

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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I just realized that I can get a Multnomah County library card even as a Washington County resident which gives access to the entire Oregonian archives, so I'm definitely going to spend a lot of time looking a bunch of events. Here's December 1892, when 29" of snow fell in a 6 day period with 24" of that in two days. And then another 30"+ in late January/early February.

 

Full_Page__Oregonian_published_as_Morning_Oregonian.___December_23_1892__p1.pdf

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I think this winter is going to look a lot better to people in hindsight. Probably the best so far this Century in the West. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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6 minutes ago, Doinko said:

I just realized that I can get a Multnomah County library card even as a Washington County resident which gives access to the entire Oregonian archives, so I'm definitely going to spend a lot of time looking a bunch of events. Here's December 1892, when 29" of snow fell in a 6 day period with 24" of that in two days. And then another 30"+ in late January/early February.

 

Full_Page__Oregonian_published_as_Morning_Oregonian.___December_23_1892__p1.pdf 321.73 kB · 0 downloads

That article is so poetic and colorful... fascinating stuff.   When I am bored I find myself looking for accounts of historical weather around the world.   Yesterday I was reading about the weather in England in the 1500s and 1600s and the first hand narratives of weather events from people living at that time are endlessly interesting to me.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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8 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I will also say I have a ton of work that needs to be done on the property this year. Though I hope the cool pattern continues, I hope we are done with 8" of snow on the ground. Beautiful sunny skies right now, and even though it's very chilly in the upper 30s, it feels nice. Can't get much work done though with 8" of slop on the ground. Sure is pretty though. 

We really need snow gone at our place. Impossible to do any work. The one place thats mostly melted is the driveway since it was plowed off and on. SO, i figured i'd load up the quads and get them to the repair shop in Okanogan. I got stuck 100 yards from the house because it was too muddy from the snow bank melt. AYFKM. Took me four hours by myself to pull the trailer, quads, and my car out of that mess with the tractor. It was almost a "come to jesus" event for me. /rant

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32 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Looks like PDX is already up to 50. TBH their performance with this trough has been pretty pathetic numbers wise. Oh well, you win some and you lose SOME. Top 10 cold March looking out of reach for them.

For those who think that tracking numbers and statistics while rooting for a specific numerical outcome for something we can’t control is a silly waste of time, I present to you the world of professional sports. ;) 

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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3 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Yeah... I was just using Andrew's favorite phrase to say the warm season is approaching.   I am sure it will be pretty nice overall and has to be better than last summer.  

There are no rules and KSEA could spend half of July reaching 90F+. I wouldn't be surprised anymore. Nothing does.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

We are living through history folks! Greatest snow pack on record for Utah! I would guess we will see significant rises in the GREAT SALT LAKE this spring! 

https://www.ksl.com/article/50606204/utahs-statewide-snowpack-breaks-record-set-40-years-ago

In the 1980’s Utah had problems with the GSL rising too much. Lots of land was flooded. SLC airport almost got flooded (they had to build emergency dikes to protect it). I-80 between SLC and Nevada flooded. They built canals and a pumping station to pump water from the lake into the salt flats to the west to increase the surface area of the water and  promote evaporation.

It's called clown range for a reason.

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18 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

For those who think that tracking numbers and statistics while rooting for a specific numerical outcome for something we can’t control is a silly waste of time, I present to you the world of professional sports. ;) 

Nerd.

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2 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

We are living through history folks! Greatest snow pack on record for Utah! I would guess we will see significant rises in the GREAT SALT LAKE this spring! 

https://www.ksl.com/article/50606204/utahs-statewide-snowpack-breaks-record-set-40-years-ago

The ULL/bowling ball swinging into the west in a few days will also park a river of moisture and modified GOA air right over Utah, bringing many hours of mod-heavy snow. The blessings continue.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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10 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Had some hail earlier, now some pretty heavy rain

I appreciate you as a member here. You have genuine enthusiasm and interest in the weather and stay away from all the preferences wars, complaining about current or past conditions, and personal stuff between members. Everyone could take a page from your book, myself included.

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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2 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

I appreciate you as a member here. You have genuine enthusiasm and interest in the weather and stay away from all the preferences wars, complaining about current or past conditions, and personal stuff between members. Everyone could take a page from your book, myself included.

Thanks. I've really learned a lot here

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Checking in from college basketball land. Looks like it's 49F out there with the occasional light shower. Hope y'all are having a good day!!

We scored another freeze last night. Incredible season.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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2 hours ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

For those who think that tracking numbers and statistics while rooting for a specific numerical outcome for something we can’t control is a silly waste of time, I present to you the world of professional sports. ;) 

Speaking of, who do u think will lead the Mariners in WAR this year??

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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