PNW March 2023 Weather Discussion (2012 Redux)

[TacomaWx]

Got down to 30 so far this morning for freeze #43 on the year. We need 3 more freezes this year to tie 2008-2009 for the #1 spot. Hopefully we can get 4 though. 

[TacomaWx]

7 hours ago, Gradient Keeper said:

00z Euro. No end in sight the cold pattern continues.

Starting to feel like last spring except this is the cold and dry jimtastic version. We will see if it lasts the entirety of the spring though…at some point a more normal pattern has got to break through. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, TacomaWx said:

Starting to feel like last spring except this is the cold and dry jimtastic version. We will see if it lasts the entirety of the spring though…at some point a more normal pattern has got to break through. 

Maybe more of a 2009 transition than 2018, a little cooler a little wetter, but ultimately it gets to the same place. I’ll try to think of a transition year where the summer didn’t torch, but I’d have to go way back. 

[TacomaWx]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Maybe more of a 2009 transition than 2018, a little cooler a little wetter, but ultimately it gets to the same place. I’ll try to think of a transition year where the summer didn’t torch, but I’d have to go way back. 

It’s probably going to torch this summer…but maybe not as bad as 2021 and 2022. We’ve been saying for years there would be a payback summer but it never comes

[MossMan]

Yet another freezing low! 31! Currently 32 and frosty. 

[TT-SEA]

27 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Starting to feel like last spring except this is the cold and dry jimtastic version. We will see if it lasts the entirety of the spring though…at some point a more normal pattern has got to break through. 

Next point to break away from the current pattern appears to be around day 10 per the EPS... but it has shown that before and it just defaults back to status quo as it gets closer.   I won't believe it until it happens.

[SnowySeeker50]

Low of 30 this morning

[Cascadia_Wx]

Frosty low of 32 this morning with lots of low clouds and fog around. I’d have to go back and tally all the freezes we’ve seen since early November but it’s been a lot.

[Cascadia_Wx]

41 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Starting to feel like last spring except this is the cold and dry jimtastic version. We will see if it lasts the entirety of the spring though…at some point a more normal pattern has got to break through. 

Wettest March in six years here. Although that really isn’t saying much since there have been nothing but fairly dry to really dry Marches in that stretch.

[Anti Marine Layer]

Mid 70s would probably be comfortable for most people, but there are years we go from 50s and 60s late into June to 80s and 90s a few weeks later. More like 2 seasons than 4 seasons.

[TacomaWx]

12 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Wettest March in six years here. Although that really isn’t saying much since there have been nothing but fairly dry to really dry Marches in that stretch.

Yeah, haven’t had a wet or even average precipitation March since 2017 here. Has been wetter down south…probably going to finish with about 60-70% of normal this month. Atleast it’s been chilly. 

[MossMan]

Temp continues to drop…The dry arctic front must be here! Down to 30.9

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Omg 

[SnowySeeker50]

Still looks pretty white on Lea Hill this morning from yesterday's hail.

[Cloud]

A very frosty morning. Quite good for this time of year. 

[TT-SEA]

7 minutes ago, SnowySeeker50 said:

Still looks pretty white on Lea Hill this morning from yesterday's hail.

That is incredible... basically snow on the ground.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Check out the C-Zone up north on Saturday night. 

[TT-SEA]

7 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Check out the C-Zone up north on Saturday night. 

That has Randy's name written all over it... while there is a decent SW wind down here.   

The WB maps show a 925 temp of -1C or -2C at that time and its in the middle of the night so no sun angle to mitigate things.    Here is the GFS snowfall map from Saturday morning through Sunday morning:

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 hour ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

Mid 70s would probably be comfortable for most people, but there are years we go from 50s and 60s late into June to 80s and 90s a few weeks later. More like 2 seasons than 4 seasons.

Basically did not have fall up here. Went from summer (drought, fires, smoke, warm temperatures) to winter (snow and freezing temperatures) in about two weeks. Some trees still had green leaves as the snow fell on them.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

This BC slider could bring very low snow levels. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

That has Randy's name written all over it... while there is a decent SW wind down here.   

The WB maps show a 925 temp of -1C or -2C at that time and its in the middle of the night so no sun angle to mitigate things.    Here is the GFS snowfall map from Saturday morning through Sunday morning:

I will believe it when I see it although IIRC at least one Euro map had me in the blue next weekend as well.

Would be very strange to get sticking snow in April after March was a total turd burger.

[MossMan]

7 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Check out the C-Zone up north on Saturday night. 

Just needs to trend north by about 5 or 10 miles and I will get my 6 months straight of measurable snowfall! 

[The Cats Meow]

What a beautiful pattern we've had for the last month or two and yet in my backyard basically nothing to write home about snow wise.

Maybe we need a Nino to get a good snow in the Puyallup Valley.

[The Cats Meow]

Maybe we break this pattern mid April but I wouldn't count on it.

[TT-SEA]

8 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Just needs to trend north by about 5 or 10 miles and I will get my 6 months straight of measurable snowfall! 

Pretty much guaranteed to happen... you always get snow one way or another!  

[TacomaWx]

We will see how April goes…but the way it’s looking could lean chilly atleast at the start. April 2020 and 2021 were pretty sunny and warm…almost as close to summer like as you could get in April. Will be interesting to see if we go with another chilly one this year. 

[Omegaraptor]

12 hours ago, Doinko said:

Really impressive that we've managed measurable snow on April 11th last year and now March 25th this year (though PDX didn't get anything). Before last year March 25th was the latest sticking snow at PDX in 1965.  Very unlikely but the GEM actually shows some snow in the air towards the end and then lows in the 20s for the Willamette Valley.

While every other part of the year warmed, late winter and early spring have actually cooled from the 1981-10 to 1991-20 averages.

Could be something going on between MJO and the Arctic that’s making it easier for cold airmasses to drop into the PNW that time of year. However as I understand (not 100% sure on this off the top of my head) February used to consistently suck much like January does now so maybe it’s just a course correction and we’ll eventually see the same thing happen in January. @Phil got any ideas?

[tootthekazoo]

42 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

That is incredible... basically snow on the ground.

I live directly under the bullseye of that hail core. Weirdly it was "soft" hail so I didn't notice what was going on at first.

Best I could tell this morning they actually ended up plowing the streets, including at the roundabout in that photo. Spent my morning listening to huge sheets of hail/ice crashing off of the surrounding rooftops. Here's a couple of photos mid-event.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Solid GFS run. The most intriguing feature is the one about a week out that slides down the coast and delivers a slug of moisture with very cold air in place. Could see some low snow levels with that one. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

34 at SLE at 10am on March 27th. Pretty impressive.

[Deweydog]

Not sure if it’s been pointed out, butt PDX’s overachieving 49 degree max on Saturday was their 13th below the 50 mark this month. Most in 59 years.

[TacomaWx]

14 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Solid GFS run. The most intriguing feature is the one about a week out that slides down the coast and delivers a slug of moisture with very cold air in place. Could see some low snow levels with that one. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

9 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Not sure if it’s been pointed out, butt PDX’s overachieving 49 degree max on Saturday was their 13th below the 50 mark this month. Most in 59 years.

That's impressive! SLE scored 4 straight sub-50 highs. 

[Doinko]

40 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

We will see how April goes…but the way it’s looking could lean chilly atleast at the start. April 2020 and 2021 were pretty sunny and warm…almost as close to summer like as you could get in April. Will be interesting to see if we go with another chilly one this year. 

PDX somehow managed a freeze during that warm month, 32 on 4/11. But then it torched after that

[the_convergence_zone]

37 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

While every other part of the year warmed, late winter and early spring have actually cooled from the 1981-10 to 1991-20 averages.

Could be something going on between MJO and the Arctic that’s making it easier for cold airmasses to drop into the PNW that time of year. However as I understand (not 100% sure on this off the top of my head) February used to consistently suck much like January does now so maybe it’s just a course correction and we’ll eventually see the same thing happen in January. @Phil got any ideas?

1. The PDO. Mostly positive up to 1998, mostly negative since except for 2015 and 2016. 

2. Pinatubo. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, Doinko said:

PDX somehow managed a freeze during that warm month, 32 on 4/11. But then it torched after that

Pretty sure it snowed here on April 1, 2020.

[TacomaWx]

4 minutes ago, Doinko said:

PDX somehow managed a freeze during that warm month, 32 on 4/11. But then it torched after that

In which year 2020 or 2021? IIRC we had some chilly lows in early April 2020…but I’d have to look at my records to be sure. 

[Doinko]

1 minute ago, TacomaWx said:

In which year 2020 or 2021? IIRC we had some chilly lows in early April 2020…but I’d have to look at my records to be sure. 

2021 https://fox12weather.wordpress.com/2021/04/11/cold-nights-a-sunny-april-week-ahead/

That surprised me too. Another surprising thing like that was that Eugene's record low for July was in July 2018 of all months

[the_convergence_zone]

Personally the winter of 2022-23 will go down in my head as largely boring and forgettable. No snow accumulations above 1", no decent windstorm, just dry and cold-ish. More sunshine than last winter which was nice. Much different story at elevation but close to sea level I feel like we had a pattern that should have delivered 3 feet of snow but was thwarted by the pathetic nature of most arctic air masses these days. 

The one period that stands out is the pre-Christmas freeze followed by that epic ice storm and AR. The early December one that was nearly a huge snowstorm was also pretty good but it only snowed for about 15 minutes at my elevation. 

 

[TacomaWx]

5 minutes ago, the_convergence_zone said:

Personally the winter of 2022-23 will go down in my head as largely boring and forgettable. No snow accumulations above 1", no decent windstorm, just dry and cold-ish. More sunshine than last winter which was nice. Much different story at elevation but close to sea level I feel like we had a pattern that should have delivered 3 feet of snow but was thwarted by the pathetic nature of most arctic air masses these days. 

The one period that stands out is the pre-Christmas freeze followed by that epic ice storm and AR. The early December one that was nearly a huge snowstorm was also pretty good but it only snowed for about 15 minutes at my elevation. 

 

Yeah, that storm on 12/20 was a very close call. Could’ve been a huge snow event had the low came a bit south.  Had a 2” event to start December and a handful of 1” events in December and late February but that was it. I’ll take this year every time over years like 2014-2015 and 2015-2016 though.