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PNW March 2023 Weather Discussion (2012 Redux)


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35 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

50 at SEA and in North Bend this morning... both with an east wind.   Looks like the cloud shield is shearing apart and thinning as I can see stars out there.   Should be another nice day up here.

00Z ECMWF was truly nuts... looks like our April craziness might be repeating again this year despite ENSO going in the complete opposite direction as last April.   The seasons have been sort of messed up and extreme for the last year.

The 00Z EPS still showed a pattern change starting by the middle of next week which is about the same timing as the 12Z run.   And still don't believe it yet.  

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-1679961600-1679961600-1681257600-10.gif

Even still, it looks transitory

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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4 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Even still, it looks transitory

It definitely looks like a pattern change though.   For most of the last 6 weeks the EPS has been showing a deep trough over the west coast in the long range.    What it is showing at the end of the run now would be pattern with less cold air digging all the way down to the SW.     Assuming the pattern actually evolves as shown of course.   

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

@LowerGarfield the ECMWF has been speeding up the arrival of the precip on Friday... we are planning to get over the pass by 1 or 2 p.m.   Guessing I-90 won't be too bad during the daylight hours until maybe 6 or 7 p.m. though as precip is not real heavy yet.

ecmwf-deterministic-nw-precip_3hr_inch-0307200 (1).png

Fleeing the rain?

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1 minute ago, Phil said:

Fleeing the rain?

As discussed previously... its our last parents weekend at my son's college.    He graduates in May.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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36 a cloudy. Still about 2-3” of solid snow cover. 
 

I wish you could block people on here and not just put them on ignore, you still have to read their posts when others reply. 🫠

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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4 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Tim hasn’t had much need to flee the rain with the focus of the pattern being down South lately…weathers actually been sunny often here. he’s just giving @LowerGarfield travel tips since he/she is going to be coming over the pass that day. 

Phil was adamant last week that this week would be different and we would not sneak in a period of warmer than normal 850mb temps... but it managed to happen again as I suspected.    I don't get the same feeling about next week though.  

ecmwf-deterministic-nw-t850_anom_stream-0134400.png

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SEA is almost 6 inches below normal for rainfall for the year... and getting to the point in the year when its hard to make up that big of a deficit.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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40 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

As discussed previously... its our last parents weekend at my son's college.    He graduates in May.

Congrats!

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39 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

36 a cloudy. Still about 2-3” of solid snow cover. 
 

I wish you could block people on here and not just put them on ignore, you still have to read their posts when others reply. 🫠

Sorry bruh.

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37 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Phil was adamant last week that this week would be different and we would not sneak in a period of warmer than normal 850mb temps... but it managed to happen again as I suspected.    I don't get the same feeling about next week though.  

ecmwf-deterministic-nw-t850_anom_stream-0134400.png

Nothing like last week, though. This is a flicker by comparison.

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1 minute ago, Phil said:

Nothing like last week, though. This is a flicker by comparison.

Last week was nice Tuesday afternoon and Wednesday.   This week it will be Monday - Wednesday and possibly Thursday.   The dry, sunny period is a little more extended this week.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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9 minutes ago, Phil said:

Sorry bruh.

You are good homie 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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light rain and 42 in Stayton. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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6 minutes ago, MossMan said:

4.97” though the gauge for the month, 14.93” for the year. 

Looks like the North Bend station is only 3 inches for the month which is well below normal and there won't be much more added.   Still... that is double the amount of precip we had out here in March 2019.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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5 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

Hope you're not referring to my posts in This Forum Will Be Deleted

You’re safe big dogg. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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6 minutes ago, T-Town said:

Enumclaw gusted to 49 in the last hour.  Looks like they’re the western wa winners so far based on a cursory review of local obs. 

A little breezy here but nothing major.   Usually when Enumclaw is getting hit its not as bad up here.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Forecast high is 49

tomorrow. Only shot at 50 this week. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Weekend trough looks magnificent. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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59 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Last week was nice Tuesday afternoon and Wednesday.   This week it will be Monday - Wednesday and possibly Thursday.   The dry, sunny period is a little more extended this week.  

But the amplitude of warm 850mb anomalies is reduced and latitudinally constrained, which was my point at the time.

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3 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Rainy morning here with a rainy day on tap. 46 degrees after a low of 44. I remember points last week when today was forecast to be mild and sunny.

Good catch! 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Good catch! 

Thanks brother. Really this whole work week was forecast to be a lot more mild than it’s going to end up. The ULL trending farther north was a game changer, and now it looks like there won’t be as much of a break between that and the next COLD system moving in Thursday/Friday. I’ll take it.

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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On 3/24/2023 at 11:25 AM, TT-SEA said:

Distinct north-south gradient on Tuesday per the 12Z ECMWF.

 

ecmwf-deterministic-nw-precip_3hr_inch-0037200.png

ecmwf-deterministic-nw-t2m_f_max6-0048000.png

Even last week the ECMWF did pretty well depicting the set up today.   I don't remember when western OR was supposed sunny and warm today on any run.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Transition to some milder rain middle of next week. Lovely. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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