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PNW March 2023 Weather Discussion (2012 Redux)


Requiem

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Starting to feel good about troughing the 2nd half of April. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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7 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

https://bridgebayhouseboats.com/live-camera/

Shasta Lake

Shasta Lake getting DUMPED on. Their average high now is in the mid-60s. Obviously nothing in their forecast even comes remotely close.

Lake level elevation is 1,067 feet... pretty crazy to have snow levels that low down there.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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51 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

More snow for you I assume. 

gfs-deterministic-washington-total_snow_kuchera-0534000.png

Looks like a similar amount for my area as last Saturday! 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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3 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Phil was adamant last week that this week would be different and we would not sneak in a period of warmer than normal 850mb temps... but it managed to happen again as I suspected.    I don't get the same feeling about next week though.  

ecmwf-deterministic-nw-t850_anom_stream-0134400.png

Thank you for the update. I will see how it looks and maybe we will try and leave sooner.

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Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA:

2023-2024 Snowfall totals: 14.3 inches

HIghest snow total (per event): 5.8 inches total 1/11/24 - 1/12/24.

Most recent accumulation (non trace): 0.20 inches on 2/26/24

Days with  trace or more snowfall: 12/01/23 (0.60), 1/8/24 (1.0), 1/10/24 (3.5), 1/11/23 (3.5 inches with Thundersnow; separate event from prior day), 1/12/24 (2.30). 1/14/24 (T), 1/17/24 (1.20 inches), 1/18/24 (1.5 inches), 1/19/24 (0.20), 2/09/24 (0.30), 2/26/24 (0.20-mainly graupel)

First Freeze: 10/27/2023

Last Sub freezing Day: 1/20/24 (12th) (8 days in a row from 1/12/24-1/20/24)

Coldest low: -12F (!!!!!!!!) (1/12/24)

Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location (on ground)

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How does the gorge look for Friday? I'd rather take I-90 but want to know my options? How did the latest euro look?

Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA:

2023-2024 Snowfall totals: 14.3 inches

HIghest snow total (per event): 5.8 inches total 1/11/24 - 1/12/24.

Most recent accumulation (non trace): 0.20 inches on 2/26/24

Days with  trace or more snowfall: 12/01/23 (0.60), 1/8/24 (1.0), 1/10/24 (3.5), 1/11/23 (3.5 inches with Thundersnow; separate event from prior day), 1/12/24 (2.30). 1/14/24 (T), 1/17/24 (1.20 inches), 1/18/24 (1.5 inches), 1/19/24 (0.20), 2/09/24 (0.30), 2/26/24 (0.20-mainly graupel)

First Freeze: 10/27/2023

Last Sub freezing Day: 1/20/24 (12th) (8 days in a row from 1/12/24-1/20/24)

Coldest low: -12F (!!!!!!!!) (1/12/24)

Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location (on ground)

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4 minutes ago, LowerGarfield said:

How does the gorge look for Friday? I'd rather take I-90 but want to know my options? How did the latest euro look?

Just updating now... here is the precip and total snow loops for Friday into Friday evening.

 

 

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-precip_1hr_inch-1680004800-1680271200-1680310800-20.gif

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-snow_24hr_kuchera-1680004800-1680274800-1680328800-20.gif

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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3 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Dew point is down to 21 at Abbotsford. 

Dewpoint was as low as 17 earlier this morning at SEA.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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What in the world are they looking at? Did they get the dates completely wrong on this Advisory? Weather looks basically dry the next 36 hours and they’re talking about up to a foot of snow at Stevens Pass by tomorrow morning? Might be the dumbest advisory I’ve ever seen the NWS put out.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Spokane WA
303 AM PDT Tue Mar 28 2023

WAZ041-047-048-290300-
/O.NEW.KOTX.WW.Y.0024.230328T1003Z-230329T1500Z/
Wenatchee Area-Central Chelan County-Western Chelan County-
Including the cities of Stevens Pass, Holden Village, and Number
2 Canyon
303 AM PDT Tue Mar 28 2023

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM PDT WEDNESDAY ABOVE
3500 FEET...

* WHAT...Snow Above 3500 feet. Total snow accumulations of 7 to 12
  inches. Winds gusting as high as 45 mph.

* WHERE...Southwestern Chelan county including Stevens Pass, Holden Village, Number 2 Canyon, Blewett Pass, and Mission Peak.

* WHEN...Until 8 AM PDT Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions could impact the Tuesday morning and evening commutes. Snow accumulations of up to 1 inch per hour are possible late Tuesday night through early Wednesday morning.

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Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 91"

2023-24: 6"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

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Wind is so strong in Enumclaw my GF had to close the outdoor school she runs there because things were getting thrown around too much to be safe. They’ve had an amazing amount of wind this year there and it’s usually on days it’s been dead calm here. Amazing microclimate there.

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Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 91"

2023-24: 6"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

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19 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Another snowy ECMWF run... 

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-total_snow_kuchera-0609600.png

Looks like about 8-10" here. Until last year we had seen snow in April in 2012, 15, 18, 20, but our largest amount was 2.5" in 2012. So even a 3-4" event would be significant for April. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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13 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Maybe. We were building snow people ⛄️ in April 10th last year. 

Your backyard is at a significantly higher elevation than mine.

And you don’t have a jinx on you that makes it impossible to see accumulating lowland snow on or after March 1.

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Looks like about 8-10" here. Until last year we had seen snow in April in 2012, 15, 18, 20, but our largest amount was 2.5" in 2012. So even a 3-4" event would be significant for April. 

Probably going to get some snow here too.   I am little skeptical of the amounts though as the ECMWF showed about the same here last weekend and we got basically nothing.   

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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One more note... its really strange for the ECMWF to be showing more lowland snow than the GFS in what likely will be marginal conditions.    Same thing happened last weekend.   

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7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Probably going to get some snow here too.   I am little skeptical of the amounts though as the ECMWF showed about the same here last weekend and we got basically nothing.   

Probably moisture dependent too, seemed like most of the moisture went south of your area last week. We ended up with about 13" from that trough. Places around here at your elevation had around 3-4" I would guess. This trough will not be quite as cold as the one this past weekend (At least down here), we had sticking snow down below 500' at times late last week, I would doubt we see anything sticking below about 1000-1200' this weekend. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

One more note... its really strange for the ECMWF to be showing more lowland snow than the GFS in what likely will be marginal conditions.    Same thing happened last weekend.   

Hate to admit this, but at least for my location the EURO has been much more bullish than the GFS for snow the past two months and has been pretty spot on. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Probably moisture dependent too, seemed like most of the moisture went south of your area last week. We ended up with about 13" from that trough. Places around here at your elevation had around 3-4" I would guess. This trough will not be quite as cold as the one this past weekend (At least down here), we had sticking snow down below 500' at times late last week, I would doubt we see anything sticking below about 1000-1200' this weekend. 

Comparison of 12Z GFS and 12Z ECMWF over next 10 days... dare I say the Goofus looks more reasonable?

gfs-deterministic-or_wa-total_snow_kuchera-0868800.png

ecmwf-deterministic-or_wa-total_snow_kuchera-0868800 (1).png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

One more note... its really strange for the ECMWF to be showing more lowland snow than the GFS in what likely will be marginal conditions.    Same thing happened last weekend.   

Did any model pick up the inch of snow that fell around 500 feet in the convergence zone?

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4 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Did any model pick up the inch of snow that fell around 500 feet in the convergence zone?

When did that happen?   Was the late Friday night? I can't see archived images on WB... only for the last 24 hours.   So I would have to go back through posts on here.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Comparison of 12Z GFS and 12Z ECMWF over next 10 days... dare I say the Goofus looks more reasonable?

gfs-deterministic-or_wa-total_snow_kuchera-0868800.png

ecmwf-deterministic-or_wa-total_snow_kuchera-0868800 (1).png

Not a huge difference here. It seems like the phantom snow issue from the EURO is more of a lowland issue. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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