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PNW March 2023 Weather Discussion (2012 Redux)


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1 minute ago, Slushy Inch said:

Late Friday night early Saturday. 

I remember the ECMWF showed about 6 inches here that night on the runs leading up to that c-zone... but it set up a little too far north.   I assume the foothills between I-90 and Hwy 2 probably got that much at my elevation but there is very little development or roads in that area so hard to verify.   I am pretty sure both models showed some snow reaching back towards the Seattle area north of I-90.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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2 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Starting to feel good about troughing the 2nd half of April. 

4/18/08 repeat! I got 6” from that event! Some place near Monroe got about 10” I’m pretty sure.

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2023 - 2024 Cold Season Stats

Total Snowfall - 0.75”

Max Snow Depth - 0.5”

Coldest High Temp - 21 (Jan 13)

Coldest Low Temp - 9 (Jan 13)

Number of Freezes - 48

Sub-40 highs - 12

Highs 32 or lower - 3

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1 hour ago, bainbridgekid said:

What in the world are they looking at? Did they get the dates completely wrong on this Advisory? Weather looks basically dry the next 36 hours and they’re talking about up to a foot of snow at Stevens Pass by tomorrow morning? Might be the dumbest advisory I’ve ever seen the NWS put out.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Spokane WA
303 AM PDT Tue Mar 28 2023

WAZ041-047-048-290300-
/O.NEW.KOTX.WW.Y.0024.230328T1003Z-230329T1500Z/
Wenatchee Area-Central Chelan County-Western Chelan County-
Including the cities of Stevens Pass, Holden Village, and Number
2 Canyon
303 AM PDT Tue Mar 28 2023

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM PDT WEDNESDAY ABOVE
3500 FEET...

* WHAT...Snow Above 3500 feet. Total snow accumulations of 7 to 12
  inches. Winds gusting as high as 45 mph.

* WHERE...Southwestern Chelan county including Stevens Pass, Holden Village, Number 2 Canyon, Blewett Pass, and Mission Peak.

* WHEN...Until 8 AM PDT Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions could impact the Tuesday morning and evening commutes. Snow accumulations of up to 1 inch per hour are possible late Tuesday night through early Wednesday morning.

From the AFD: seems like its a pretty tenuous situation

image.png.2dba5596a5ae2060e6b66e637f8fb7c1.png

 

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19 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z EPS... this might be the last round of cold troughing.   Possibly.   Maybe.

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-1680004800-1680004800-1681300800-10.gif

Late April 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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I've been asking ChatGPT questions about historical weather in our area. It's actually shockingly and wildly inaccurate. Actually as an aside, a lot of the answers it gives in general are completely inaccurate. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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33 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I've been asking ChatGPT questions about historical weather in our area. It's actually shockingly and wildly inaccurate. Actually as an aside, a lot of the answers it gives in general are completely inaccurate. 

What does it think about next January’s chances?

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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4 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

What does it think about next January’s chances?

 
Will January 2024 be cold in Oregon
 
 

It is not possible to accurately predict the weather for January 2024 at this time. Weather patterns and temperature trends are subject to change and can be influenced by a variety of factors, such as atmospheric conditions, ocean temperatures, and global climate patterns.

However, it is worth noting that January is typically one of the coldest months of the year in Oregon, with average temperatures ranging from the mid-30s to the low 40s Fahrenheit (1-5 degrees Celsius) in most areas. Snowfall is also common in many parts of the state during this time of year, particularly in higher elevations and mountainous regions. So, while it is not possible to make a specific prediction for January 2024, it is likely that temperatures will be cold and there may be snow in some areas.

Edited by SilverFallsAndrew
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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 hour ago, the_convergence_zone said:

Sea-Tac bottomed out at 49 last night which will tie the record warmest minimum for the date if it holds (for the Sea-Tac record, downtown had a 53 low in 1934). 

Easterlies and downsloping must be involved. Got close to the freezing mark IMBY.

Now 61.5°F.

It's called clown range for a reason.

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Will January 2024 be cold in North Bend, WA?
 
 

North Bend, WA is located in western Washington State, which is generally milder in terms of winter temperatures compared to eastern Washington and Oregon. However, as with any weather prediction, it is difficult to make an accurate forecast for a specific month several years in advance.

That being said, January is typically the coldest month of the year in North Bend, with average temperatures ranging from the low 30s to the low 40s Fahrenheit (around 0-5 degrees Celsius). It is also common to see rainfall, with the potential for snowfall in higher elevations.

As for January 2024, it is impossible to make an accurate prediction this far in advance. However, it is likely that North Bend will experience similar temperatures and weather patterns as previous years. It is always a good idea to check the weather forecast closer to the time of your visit for the most accurate information.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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13 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:
 
Will January 2024 be cold in Oregon
 
 

It is not possible to accurately predict the weather for January 2024 at this time. Weather patterns and temperature trends are subject to change and can be influenced by a variety of factors, such as atmospheric conditions, ocean temperatures, and global climate patterns.

However, it is worth noting that January is typically one of the coldest months of the year in Oregon, with average temperatures ranging from the mid-30s to the low 40s Fahrenheit (1-5 degrees Celsius) in most areas. Snowfall is also common in many parts of the state during this time of year, particularly in higher elevations and mountainous regions. So, while it is not possible to make a specific prediction for January 2024, it is likely that temperatures will be cold and there may be snow in some areas.

Sounds like the real deal.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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Unfortunately the high cloudiness has been more opaque this afternoon.    SEA was up to 59 and not down to 57.   Questionable whether they were able to reach 60.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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18z brings back the little feature coming down the coast Monday night. Talk about the real deal if that were to verify. 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_27.png

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

18z brings back the little feature coming down the coast Monday night. Talk about the real deal if that were to verify. 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_27.png

Big change from 12Z run... more like ECMWF now.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

63 at BLI

And it is now 33 and snowing at my house...

Didn't expect it to snow today... But it is according to my father in law who just texted me and per the Silver Falls cam...

Edited by SilverFallsAndrew
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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Well now… 

17871622-970C-4EBC-A706-053FAD4B4C02.png

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

63 at BLI

Was 62 when I was at home a bit ago for lunch. I went out and sprayed some weeds (with the vinegar concoction) as well while I was there. 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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On the 18Z GFS... that second system cruising down the coast on Monday instead of hanging back leads to a much drier pattern for the rest of the week.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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5 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Starting to feel good about troughing the 2nd half of April. 

I anticipate a transition to a more Tim-friendly pattern for the second half of April, which should last well into May. In fact I bet there’ll be some icepuśśy panic come mid-May when it’s still a dry/somewhat warm pattern after 4+ weeks. Reasons for this come down to seasonal/intraseasonal overlap, not really ENSO related at all.

But the weak/suppressed 4CH should become increasingly apparent as we move deeper into the warm season. Much different pattern during the warm season across the entire western US.

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Just now, Phil said:

I anticipate a transition to a more Tim-friendly pattern for the second half of April, which should last well into May. In fact I bet there’ll be some icepuśśy panic come mid-May when it’s still a dry/somewhat warm pattern after 4+ weeks. Reasons for this come down to seasonal/intraseasonal overlap, not really ENSO related at all.

But the weak/suppressed 4CH should become increasingly apparent as we move deeper into the warm season. Much different pattern during the warm season across the entire western US.

😀

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

😀

Probably followed by heat miser disappointment during the meat of summer. 😆 I suspect everyone is gonna squirm at some point.

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2 minutes ago, Phil said:

Probably followed by heat miser disappointment during the meat of summer. 😆 I suspect everyone is gonna squirm at some point.

I assume you mean it won't be scorching hot... which sounds great.    A 2012 type July - Sept would be incredible. 

 

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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2 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

Oh shitt. Phil just predicted cold anomalies in summer. Prepare for another record hot one boys.

I don't think he is predicting a cold summer... just not a hot summer.   

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Just now, Phil said:

I anticipate a transition to a more Tim-friendly pattern for the second half of April, which should last well into May. In fact I bet there’ll be some icepuśśy panic come mid-May when it’s still a dry/somewhat warm pattern after 4+ weeks. Reasons for this come down to seasonal/intraseasonal overlap, not really ENSO related at all.

But the weak/suppressed 4CH should become increasingly apparent as we move deeper into the warm season. Much different pattern during the warm season across the entire western US.

Well it essentially doesn’t rain here after mid June regardless so what you are saying is it’s over. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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9 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

Oh shitt. Phil just predicted cold anomalies in summer. Prepare for another record hot one boys.

Haha, I actually didn’t. ;) Just that the lack of a mega-4CH should sever the conduit responsible for the insane western heat over the last 2 summers.

Easy to get a warm PNW summer with a weak 4CH. Biggest difference from previous summers will be over the SW/Intermountain West, where it’ll be like night and day (if I’m right).

But I don’t anticipate those monster heatwaves will happen this year, unless it happens in May or maybe at the tail end of summer. And if so, up north in BC/Alaska and the Yukon would be where the warmest anomalies would center.

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10 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

I don’t see anything that looks drier than 12z. Are you talking about the 6th?

18Z is much drier overall from Tuesday into the weekend.      18Z shows basically no precip for the Puget Sound area after Monday for the rest of the week.

Top is 12Z run and bottom is 18Z run for that 4 day period.

gfs-deterministic-nw-precip_96hr_inch-0998400 (2).png

gfs-deterministic-nw-precip_96hr_inch-0998400 (1).png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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