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PNW March 2023 Weather Discussion (2012 Redux)


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4 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

It's over! Finally. NICE! Thanks, Tim.

I still don't trust it... need to see it stay consistent for the next few days.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Buzz kill for a nice weekend. lol

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_46.png

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SnowfallΒ  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  2021-22: 91.46"Β 

2020-21: 12.0"Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β 2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β 2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β 2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β 2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β 2012-13: 78.45Β Β 

2011-12: 98.5"Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β 2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill!Β 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

Β 

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Just now, TT-SEA said:

Easter weekend.

Resurrect our snow pack!

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SnowfallΒ  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  2021-22: 91.46"Β 

2020-21: 12.0"Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β 2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β 2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β 2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β 2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β 2012-13: 78.45Β Β 

2011-12: 98.5"Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β 2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill!Β 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

Β 

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6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

18Z is much drier overall from Tuesday into the weekend.Β  Β  Β  18Z shows basically no precip for the Puget Sound area after Monday for the rest of the week.

Top is 12Z run and bottom is 18Z run for that 4 day period.

gfs-deterministic-nw-precip_96hr_inch-0998400 (2).png

gfs-deterministic-nw-precip_96hr_inch-0998400 (1).png

Thought you were referring to a sooner pattern.

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11 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I don't think he is predicting a cold summer... just not a hot summer.Β  Β 

Correct. It could even end up solidly above average, but if so it’ll probably resemble the 2019 or 1997 pattern. Relatively moist and a β€œdim” but persistent warm lean. Rather than massive heatwaves and fires everywhere.

Or it could end up resembling 1957 if this cold phase/PMM dipole type circulation continues, or if the niΓ±o transition fails then a cooler outcome is suddenly very possible.

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2 minutes ago, Phil said:

Correct. It could even end up solidly above average, but if so it’ll probably resemble the 2019 or 1997 pattern. Relatively moist and a β€œdim” but persistent warm lean. Rather than massive heatwaves and fires everywhere.

Or it could end up resembling 1957 if this cold phase/PMM dipole type circulation continues, or if the niΓ±o transition fails then a cooler outcome is suddenly very possible.

I thought you stay away from 1950s analogs for the warm season?

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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11 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Well it essentially doesn’t rain here after mid June regardless so what you are saying is it’s over.Β 

Those marine layer days you say have disappeared, may yet reappear this warm season.🀞So, only half over?

If you’re looking for a 19th century summer you’re probably screwed, though.Β 

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

I thought you stay away from 1950s analogs for the warm season?

Well, a β€œ21st century version” of the 1957 pattern is theoretically possible if the stout -NPMM and warm EPAC/+SPMM continues unabated.

But it’s been decades since we’ve seen anything like that during a developing niΓ±o, so yeah, I’m always skeptical we will return to that until I see it happen.

The closest we came was 2012, actually. Lots of false alarms since the mid 1970s climate shift.

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Still dumping at the house. Wild stuff.Β 

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  • Shivering 1

SnowfallΒ  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  2021-22: 91.46"Β 

2020-21: 12.0"Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β 2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β 2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β 2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β 2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β 2012-13: 78.45Β Β 

2011-12: 98.5"Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β 2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill!Β 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

Β 

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5 minutes ago, Eujunga said:

August 2012 was actually quite warm all across the West, especially away from the coast.

It was the hottest August I recorded in 28 years of record-keeping at my L.A. (Tujunga) residence.

Screenshot 2023-03-28 at 4.35.04 PM.jpg

Yeah, I remember June being cool, July being about average, and then August and September were pretty warm. Then October-December was extremely wet.Β 

SnowfallΒ  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  2021-22: 91.46"Β 

2020-21: 12.0"Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β 2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β 2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β 2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β 2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β 2012-13: 78.45Β Β 

2011-12: 98.5"Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β 2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill!Β 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

Β 

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5 minutes ago, Eujunga said:

August 2012 was actually quite warm all across the West, especially away from the coast.

It was the hottest August I recorded in 28 years of record-keeping at my L.A. (Tujunga) residence.

Screenshot 2023-03-28 at 4.35.04 PM.jpg

Yeah, the niΓ±o transition failed that summer. Tried hard but didn’t quite get over the hump.

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48/41 split at SLE so far today. Interesting that their high was was at 12:27pm and their low so far was at 1:11pm.Β 

  • Like 1

SnowfallΒ  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  2021-22: 91.46"Β 

2020-21: 12.0"Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β 2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β 2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β 2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β 2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β 2012-13: 78.45Β Β 

2011-12: 98.5"Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β 2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill!Β 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

Β 

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Hitting 32 now at the house, makes for the 27th freeze of the month.Β 

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  • Shivering 2

SnowfallΒ  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  2021-22: 91.46"Β 

2020-21: 12.0"Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β 2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β 2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β 2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β 2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β 2012-13: 78.45Β Β 

2011-12: 98.5"Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β 2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill!Β 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

Β 

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2 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

18Z is much drier overall from Tuesday into the weekend.Β  Β  Β  18Z shows basically no precip for the Puget Sound area after Monday for the rest of the week.

Top is 12Z run and bottom is 18Z run for that 4 day period.

gfs-deterministic-nw-precip_96hr_inch-0998400 (2).png

gfs-deterministic-nw-precip_96hr_inch-0998400 (1).png

This is awful. We gotta make up the deficit now or we are going to be screwed by August

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PWS:Β https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KWAPORTA220

2023-2024 Snow Total: 18" (6 events)

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1 hour ago, AlTahoe said:

leaving the house in Mammoth looks interesting currently. Total blizzard outside here currentlyΒ 

Β 

Β 

How the hell does one keep up with shoveling this?

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PWS:Β https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KWAPORTA220

2023-2024 Snow Total: 18" (6 events)

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7 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

This is awful. We gotta make up the deficit now or we are going to be screwed by August

I would love warm and wet.Β  Β But we might not be screwed if we get some rain this summer and we avoid major heat waves.Β  Β The spring of 2019 was crazy dry and it was basically a smoke-free summer.Β  Β Last spring was ridiculously wet and cold and we ended up with the worst smoke imaginable.Β 

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

I would love warm and wet.Β  Β But we might not be screwed if we get some rain this summer and we avoid major heat waves.Β  Β The spring of 2019 was crazy dry and it was basically a smoke-free summer.Β  Β Last spring was ridiculously wet and cold and we ended up with the worst smoke imaginable.Β 

The jobsite I worked at today had blowing dust and there’s pretty much no mud. They had to bring out water trucks to keep the dust down on the roads. I know that isn’t entirely representative of the drought situation one construction site but definitely weird to see the ground so dry in late March. We’re coming off of a very dry summer/fall. After almost getting average rainfall in November and December…January February and March have all been well below normal. We really need to catch up.Β 

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Another nice showery and cool day. Hopefully this keeps up til summer and we can have an old-school offseason.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (JanΒ 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (JanΒ 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24Β (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4Β (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024Β (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

Β 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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16 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

The jobsite I worked at today had blowing dust and there’s pretty much no mud. They had to bring out water trucks to keep the dust down on the roads. I know that isn’t entirely representative of the drought situation one construction site but definitely weird to see the ground so dry in late March. We’re coming off of a very dry summer/fall. After almost getting average rainfall in November and December…January February and March have all been well below normal. We really need to catch up.Β 

That is why I enjoyed January even though you cold fans wanted to claim every cold season month.Β  Β πŸ˜€

Since the middle of June last year it has been almost impossible to get a warm and wet pattern.Β  Β It feels like that is a pretty important part of our environment.Β  Β Having below freezing weather all winter is great for cold stats if that is your thing but after last summer's endless heat and drought I was hoping for a wetter winter.Β  Β Feels like everything is out of balance.Β  Β  No spring last year... then right into ridiculous heat and drought... then right into winter cold... and now spring is behaving badly again.Β  Β  Β A very unfriendly year for the trees and its starting show even in my area.

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  • Spam 1

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Hmmm…. Will believe it when I see it. Still, the β€œno sticking snow IMBY on or after March 1st” jinx has to end sometime, right? Right?

(And yes: I know that there won’t be nearly this much accumulating, even if the Euro does verify. Some of this is phantom snow, and a lot of what isn’t would melt as it hit the ground.)

ecmwf-deterministic-vancouverski-total_snow_kuchera_cm-0631200.thumb.png.fff000f5b51edb50d87c2e2de7f0b427.pnggfs-deterministic-vancouverski-total_snow_kuchera_cm-0631200.thumb.png.865be0cbaa0221b62c97319094e27051.pnggem-all-vancouverski-total_snow_kuchera_cm-0631200.thumb.png.c3899be889d24d480c5aea16a393cf62.png

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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3 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Hmmm…. Will believe it when I see it. Still, the β€œno sticking snow IMBY on or after March 1st” jinx has to end sometime, right? Right?

(And yes: I know that there won’t be nearly this much accumulating, even if the Euro does verify. Some of this is phantom snow, and a lot of what isn’t would melt as it hit the ground.)

ecmwf-deterministic-vancouverski-total_snow_kuchera_cm-0631200.thumb.png.fff000f5b51edb50d87c2e2de7f0b427.pnggfs-deterministic-vancouverski-total_snow_kuchera_cm-0631200.thumb.png.865be0cbaa0221b62c97319094e27051.pnggem-all-vancouverski-total_snow_kuchera_cm-0631200.thumb.png.c3899be889d24d480c5aea16a393cf62.png

I would guess those maps are from the middle of December and not April.Β Β 

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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8 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I would guess those maps are from the middle of December and not April.Β Β 

925 mbar temperatures over metro Vancouver drop to -3˚C on Monday morning on the 12Z Euro. And it models moisture falling at that time. Definitely a lowland snow event if it verifies.ecmwf-deterministic-vancouverski-instant_ptype_3hr_mm-0523200.thumb.png.030238df67500e870da2dccd13fcef76.png

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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63/41 on the day. Hard to believe it snowed just a few days ago and will probably snow again in a few days.Β 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth!Β 

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Can’t believe we had accumulating snow today. Not quite an inch and it’s mostly already melted, but it ensures we will enter tomorrow with snow cover, we scored yet another freeze, and had our 14th day with measurable snow this month, breaking the March record from 2012.Β 
Β 

Also the 40/32 spread today all but locks up our coldest all time March. Really incredible. #2 coldest November, 4th coldest February, and coldest March.Β 

Edited by SilverFallsAndrew
  • Like 4

SnowfallΒ  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  2021-22: 91.46"Β 

2020-21: 12.0"Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β 2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β 2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β 2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β 2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β 2012-13: 78.45Β Β 

2011-12: 98.5"Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β 2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill!Β 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

Β 

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19 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Can’t believe we had accumulating snow today. Not quite an inch and it’s mostly already melted, but it ensures we will enter tomorrow with snow cover, we scored yet another freeze, and had our 14th day with measurable snow this month, breaking the March record from 2012.Β 
Β 

Also the 40/32 spread today all but locks up our coldest all time March. Really incredible. #2 coldest November, 4th coldest February, and coldest March.Β 

Some 2016-2017 vibes this winter with the consistent cold. Much better January that year though :(Β 

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3 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

I would love warm and wet.Β  Β But we might not be screwed if we get some rain this summer and we avoid major heat waves.Β  Β The spring of 2019 was crazy dry and it was basically a smoke-free summer.Β  Β Last spring was ridiculously wet and cold and we ended up with the worst smoke imaginable.Β 

I’m cool with rain in Summer as long as it’s from thunderstorms, I’m sure most can agree.

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47 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Can’t believe we had accumulating snow today. Not quite an inch and it’s mostly already melted, but it ensures we will enter tomorrow with snow cover, we scored yet another freeze, and had our 14th day with measurable snow this month, breaking the March record from 2012.Β 
Β 

Also the 40/32 spread today all but locks up our coldest all time March. Really incredible. #2 coldest November, 4th coldest February, and coldest March.Β 

March Madness

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