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PNW March 2023 Weather Discussion (2012 Redux)


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12Z GEM still shows that system coming in by Tuesday morning... but is less deep than its 00Z run.     Game is still on though with the GEM showing it.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z GEM still shows that system coming in by Tuesday morning... but is less deep than its 00Z run.     Game is still on though with the GEM showing it.

GEM is just rock solid.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

GEM is just rock solid.

GFS is rock solid with the ridging for next week.   Too bad its the GFS.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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9 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

GFS is rock solid with the ridging for next week.   Too bad its the GFS.  

Re: GFS. Easy way to tell in 90% of cases is, if the solution involves a ULL trapped underneath a horseshoe of ridging, it’s probably typical GFS goofiness.

If it’s a clean ridge without a trapped ULL, it’s much more likely to be a legitimate outcome. Of course neither case is 100% certain/foolproof.

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The horses down the road are enjoying this lovely morning! 

The PNA not giving up its negative territory just yet! 
 

62F6278A-0A2B-4CAF-AB6D-A0B22383B61B.jpeg

B8F546E4-76F4-470C-9FD5-C3C877ADE927.jpeg

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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This looks more like the typical springtime GFS error. Though not nearly as obvious/extreme as other cases.

Flip to a ridgy pattern for the 2nd half of April is likely IMO, however I’m skeptical *this* is how it will look at 500mb.

B2DCA629-030B-42AF-AE68-27B172ED7CAB.jpeg

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7 minutes ago, Phil said:

This looks more like the typical springtime GFS error. Though not nearly as obvious/extreme as other cases.

Flip to a ridgy pattern for the 2nd half of April is likely IMO, however I’m skeptical *this* is how it will look at 500mb.

B2DCA629-030B-42AF-AE68-27B172ED7CAB.jpeg

Yeah... almost certain the GFS is being way too aggressive with ridging next week.

The 12Z GEFS also washes out the early week system more thoroughly and has been trending that way over the last few runs.    But after that its anyone's guess.    Might be the start of a general pattern change but probably won't flip to warm and sunny like the GFS is showing.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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GFS is so lost right now :(

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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The difference between the GEM and GFS is ridiculous. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

The difference between the GEM and GFS is ridiculous. 

Here is some "good" news... the 12Z GEM ensemble mean is much closer to the GFS.  

Comparison of 12Z GEM and its 12Z ensemble mean:

 

gem-all-namer-z500_anom-0739200.png

cmc-ensemble-all-avg-namer-z500_anom-0739200.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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I wonder what happened to @Front Ranger. Hope everything is okay. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Let's B real though. Changing of seasons is not the same as the worm turning. 

Going from an all-time warm October to one of the coldest November's on record is. Now if we have a May 2018 redux then yeah, the worm turned. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Let's B real though. Changing of seasons is not the same as the worm turning. 

Going from an all-time warm October to one of the coldest November's on record is. Now if we have a May 2018 redux then yeah, the worm turned. 

This is a good point.   

I guess just breaking away from the very cold pattern across the west for the last two months could sort of be considered a worm turning though.    Even if it just gets back to normal.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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CFS is rock solid for April. 

cfs-mon_01_T2ma_namer_1.png

I would be surprised if April ended up this cold. It's hard to imagine things not reverting back towards the mean at some level. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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18 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I wonder what happened to @Front Ranger. Hope everything is okay. 

He might be like me on pc locked out of the account because the password cannot be changed. You use to be able to log in with username not email and after they made that change I can only post on mobile

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9 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

This is a good point.   

I guess just breaking away from the very cold pattern across the west for the last two months could sort of be considered a worm turning though.    Even if it just gets back to normal.  

Jan 1st through today has been the coldest in 50 years for Las Vegas. It's been the same for most major cities in Cal, Nev. A turn to normal would be nice at this point. 

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2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

CFS is rock solid for April. 

cfs-mon_01_T2ma_namer_1.png

I would be surprised if April ended up this cold. It's hard to imagine things not reverting back towards the mean at some level. 

You’re doubting the gold standard CFS Andrew? The lord has blessed us and you think the blessings won’t continue?

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6 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

CFS is rock solid for April. 

cfs-mon_01_T2ma_namer_1.png

I would be surprised if April ended up this cold. It's hard to imagine things not reverting back towards the mean at some level. 

EPS shows some ridging then it retrogrades and cools off. I wonder how much ridging new EPS will have.

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Some more fun stats from the new station of the GODS, BNO!

3.34" of precip this month, looks like they will end up with their 2nd wettest March. 

Through yesterday they are running an absolutely INSANE -13F departure on the month, they are currently 5.8F colder than their previous coldest March on record at the currently location. If you go back and look at the old Harney Branch Experiment Station, they are still in the running for coldest March on record, but back to about 1980 at the current location, they are 5.8 colder than 1985 and 7.8 colder than the 2nd coldest March in 1993. Absolutely off the charts in the modern era. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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I also noticed Medford recorded 1" of snow on the 25th of this month. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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42 at SLE, 41 at EUG on the hour. Sun starting to come out finally here in Salem. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

The system early next week is basically gone on the 12Z ECMWF... big change from 00Z run.

How does my weekend snow look? 

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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6 minutes ago, MossMan said:

How does my weekend snow look? 

Still some... big change is there is not much afterwards on Monday and Tuesday.

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-total_snow_kuchera-0652800 (2).png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Just now, TT-SEA said:

Still some... big change is there is not much afterwards on Monday and Tuesday.

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-total_snow_kuchera-0652800 (2).png

Crazy that I am still bordering on blue though! 

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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15 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

The system early next week is basically gone on the 12Z ECMWF... big change from 00Z run.

 I'm still getting snow this weekend, more than likely, the early week system was always pretty iffy. If I get on the board for April then I'm good with moving on to spring. I've been spending a fortune on forage for my livestock and we have a million yard projects we need to squeeze in between a ton of travel in the next few months. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Still some... big change is there is not much afterwards on Monday and Tuesday.

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-total_snow_kuchera-0652800 (2).png

Must be more over the weekend though because that looks about the same here. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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