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PNW March 2023 Weather Discussion (2012 Redux)


Requiem

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5 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

12z EPS. Seems like maybe a little more spread in the long range than on the 00z run. Also growing support for a crash after the ridgy period. Hoping for a dynamic mid to late Spring.

AF29ED66-4E63-460A-8B7F-B629E87D501E.png

Yes... my dear friend Jesse who I spend my time with literally every single day... the EPS did end with a return to some sort of troughing in western Canada and the PNW.

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-1387200.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Should be directed at the one making the underhanded digs.   👍

I know for a fact you don't have him muted because you are the only one who responded. This is after you confidently told me the opposite was true the other day.

It's not even an unreasonable suggestion. Neither of you like each other and blocking is the obvious solution. That and just, like, not saying things when you don't have anything nice to say.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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Just now, Eujunga said:

As an old guy, I'm frequently confused by a lot of the stuff y'all post, but this one takes the cake.

No wooden cubes allowed in parking lots?

block, block, and block ;)

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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6 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

block, block, and block ;)

As I mentioned... its sort of messy then because you are missing part of the conversation.    It would be better if we could stop villianizing each other.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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2 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

I’m still in the blue… and I’ll still believe it when I see it.

Same for my area.   Almost all the snow out here comes with this weak c-zone on Sunday evening.  

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-precip_3hr_inch-0501600.png

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Just now, TT-SEA said:

Same for my area.   Almost all the snow out here comes with this weak c-zone on Sunday evening.  

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-precip_3hr_inch-0501600.png

Would be crazy for me to get another perfect c-zone for my house. It could just happen 

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16 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Hey. I'm fine...just been busy and not paying much attention to weather outside my area lately.

What have I missed??

A very cold march here. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Winter storm watch issued for the cascades. At this point I'm hoping to get up at 6am or so and leave by 7. We'll see how we do.

I am planning to return Monday and have Tuesday as a buffer as well but it looks like it will be better.

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Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA:

2023-2024 Snowfall totals: 14.3 inches

HIghest snow total (per event): 5.8 inches total 1/11/24 - 1/12/24.

Most recent accumulation (non trace): 0.20 inches on 2/26/24

Days with  trace or more snowfall: 12/01/23 (0.60), 1/8/24 (1.0), 1/10/24 (3.5), 1/11/23 (3.5 inches with Thundersnow; separate event from prior day), 1/12/24 (2.30). 1/14/24 (T), 1/17/24 (1.20 inches), 1/18/24 (1.5 inches), 1/19/24 (0.20), 2/09/24 (0.30), 2/26/24 (0.20-mainly graupel)

First Freeze: 10/27/2023

Last Sub freezing Day: 1/20/24 (12th) (8 days in a row from 1/12/24-1/20/24)

Coldest low: -12F (!!!!!!!!) (1/12/24)

Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location (on ground)

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2 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Same for my area.   Almost all the snow out here comes with this weak c-zone on Sunday evening.  

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-precip_3hr_inch-0501600.png

Here is the snow map for that same timeframe.

1D3A38A0-BF4D-4004-A2A1-4653F4026763.png

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2023 - 2024 Cold Season Stats

Total Snowfall - 0.75”

Max Snow Depth - 0.5”

Coldest High Temp - 21 (Jan 13)

Coldest Low Temp - 9 (Jan 13)

Number of Freezes - 48

Sub-40 highs - 12

Highs 32 or lower - 3

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47 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Building consensus for the Tax Day Trough on the 18z GFS.

Could be the real deal. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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59 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Building consensus for the Tax Day Trough on the 18z GFS.

Really, really solid for April

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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Whoa 

987B0CF3-9733-4531-BA1C-7F4A6D6E03E1.jpeg

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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54 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Whoa 

987B0CF3-9733-4531-BA1C-7F4A6D6E03E1.jpeg

The Cascade crest sure gets relatively low between about Barlow Pass and Olallie Lake. The crest of the central and southern Oregon cascades are actually fairly high compared even to the Washington Cascades.

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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8 minutes ago, T-Town said:

Nice sunset tonight. 

E943442A-1F30-4143-9C0D-9569544F83C4.jpeg

Sunsets are hard to capture at home with all of the trees, this is as good as it gets lol. 

2BD1F777-81AA-4AFF-83F0-E16AAC42C9AE.jpeg

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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16 minutes ago, VancouverIslandSouth said:

If anyone's in the market for a snowy 900 acres, Powder King ski resort is practically a steal. Comes with 40 ft of annual snow and summer lakefront on a private lake - https://snowbrains.com/for-sale-british-columbias-snowiest-ski-resort-could-be-yours-for-8-25-million/

 

 

Tim, Bainbridge, and I are putting together an investment group. I am contributing extensive sweat equity towards the project. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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27 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Tim, Bainbridge, and I are putting together an investment group. I am contributing extensive sweat equity towards the project. 

That is ridiculously cheap for a ski resort.   My guess is that its losing money.   It's really remote.   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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These 00z runs may disappoint some… 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 hour ago, VancouverIslandSouth said:

If anyone's in the market for a snowy 900 acres, Powder King ski resort is practically a steal. Comes with 40 ft of annual snow and summer lakefront on a private lake - https://snowbrains.com/for-sale-british-columbias-snowiest-ski-resort-could-be-yours-for-8-25-million/

 

 

900 acres of snow to paraphrase Voltaire. 

Is that price tag in CAD or USD?

Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA:

2023-2024 Snowfall totals: 14.3 inches

HIghest snow total (per event): 5.8 inches total 1/11/24 - 1/12/24.

Most recent accumulation (non trace): 0.20 inches on 2/26/24

Days with  trace or more snowfall: 12/01/23 (0.60), 1/8/24 (1.0), 1/10/24 (3.5), 1/11/23 (3.5 inches with Thundersnow; separate event from prior day), 1/12/24 (2.30). 1/14/24 (T), 1/17/24 (1.20 inches), 1/18/24 (1.5 inches), 1/19/24 (0.20), 2/09/24 (0.30), 2/26/24 (0.20-mainly graupel)

First Freeze: 10/27/2023

Last Sub freezing Day: 1/20/24 (12th) (8 days in a row from 1/12/24-1/20/24)

Coldest low: -12F (!!!!!!!!) (1/12/24)

Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location (on ground)

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2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

These 00z runs may disappoint some… 

Could be.   That trough is making its way towards CA once again.  Our Tahoe friend will not be happy.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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On the other hand... the 00Z GEM appears to be going towards more ridging than its previous runs.  If there is a pattern change coming the models will be more volatile than usual.

gem-all-namer-z500_anom-0912000.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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18 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

On the other hand... the 00Z GEM appears to be going towards more ridging than its previous runs.  If there is a pattern change coming the models will be more volatile than usual.

gem-all-namer-z500_anom-0912000.png

As usual the only consistent theme is the eastern ridging. Been cranking nonstop since the second week of February.

It’s not as bad as 2012 but it’s the worst since.

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6 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

These 00z runs may disappoint some… 

2 out of 3 leaned ridgy.   I think Meatloaf once said that ain't bad.    

It seems like cheering for disappointment of other people is a pretty big motivator for a couple of you.  ;)

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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3 hours ago, VancouverIslandSouth said:

Looks like it's in CAD, so you can basically cut that price in half 😂

It must be in need of major repairs or losing money in a big way.  That is basically free for a 900-acre ski resort.     

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