PNW March 2023 Weather Discussion (2012 Redux)

[TT-SEA]

12Z GFS looks like its bringing another trough down from the north by the middle of next week... significant change from the last few runs which showed ridging. 

And CA might get a repeat of the storm currently happening down there.  

 

[bainbridgekid]

Mammoth Mountain announced they are extending their season through AT LEAST July. Crazy.

https://www.latimes.com/travel/story/2023-03-21/mammoth-big-bear-extended-season

[bainbridgekid]

Had a surprising amount of ice on my car this morning. Must have been a rain shower that froze solid.

[Phil]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

Its looked the same for a long time.    That cold signal in the SW is usually pretty nice up here as I have mentioned previously and has played out many times over the last month or more.    

And as it gets closer we actually do end up with a 850mb temps a little warmer than normal like yesterday and today and likely again next week.   

 

Those warmer than average 850mb temperatures were projected by the EPS, though. The pattern next week is a bit different.

[Phil]

Re: that CA storm. A buoy dropping 24mb in 24hrs doesn’t qualify the storm as a “bomb” cyclone. It’s the drop in the minimum pressure of the cyclone itself that counts.

The technical/conventional definition of a meteorological “bomb” is 1 bergeron within 24hrs. At SoCal latitude I believe that translates to roughly 16mb/24hrs? In which case it *barely* met the threshold.

But the way it was being discussed (re: buoy measurements) cannot determine whether it meets the criteria, because such a drop can occur simply due to a fast moving cyclone that isn’t remotely close to meeting bomb cyclone criteria.

[TT-SEA]

16 minutes ago, Phil said:

Those warmer than average 850mb temperatures were projected by the EPS, though. The pattern next week is a bit different.

No... the warmer weather for yesterday and today appeared in the models late last week.      We were originally talking about possible snow in the lowlands for today one week ago. 

But next week could be different... still too far out. 

[Winterdog]

Had a low of 29.5F (76th freeze), currently 41F.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Seems like a lot of potential in the extended period. 

[Winterdog]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Seems like a lot of potential in the extended period. 

Normally I would envy you with your continuing promises of snow but at this point I think I actually prefer sunny skies and warmish days after frosty mornings.  I know you get your share of those as well but I'm happy to do without the snow.

[TT-SEA]

9 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Seems like a lot of potential in the extended period. 

Looks like it.  

The 00Z EPS showed a more normal spring pattern in the long range... one that would probably be wet.    But doubt it works out that way.

 

[Phishy Wx]

2 hours ago, Phil said:

Not much orange/red on the LR 00z EPS.

Woohoo!  

looks like a whole bunch of 'slightly' below normal in these parts

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

1 minute ago, Phishy Wx said:

looks like a whole bunch of 'slightly' below normal in these parts

The worst kind in late March. Let's just move on to spring

[Cascadia_Wx]

It is spring. Sometimes we get lots of cool and showery weather in the spring. There have been plenty of pleasant mild and sunny days too, like today.

Edited March 22, 2023 by Cascadia_Wx

[Phishy Wx]

Landscapers are here to finally to do 'Fall' cleanup. lol

earlier fast hitting winter had them have to put off leaf cleanup until now

[Phishy Wx]

1 minute ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

It is spring. Sometimes we get lots of cool and showery weather in the spring.

cool and dry over here it seems. I guess it delays the dry out of fuels a little but we already had a brush fire in the area yesterday of 10 acres and on the news when they showed the area there was still snow on the ground in a shaded area lol

[Cascadia_Wx]

2 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

cool and dry over here it seems. I guess it delays the dry out of fuels a little but we already had a brush fire in the area yesterday of 10 acres and on the news when they showed the area there was still snow on the ground in a shaded area lol

Hopefully we get a wetter pattern over there at some point.

[Phishy Wx]

1 hour ago, bainbridgekid said:

Mammoth Mountain announced they are extending their season through AT LEAST July. Crazy.

https://www.latimes.com/travel/story/2023-03-21/mammoth-big-bear-extended-season

they regularly go into june.  I think one year 16-17 maybe they got to August?

 

anymore and they might not close.  they should try lol

[AlTahoe]

4 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

they regularly go into june.  I think one year 16-17 maybe they got to August?

 

anymore and they might not close.  they should try lol

Aug in 2016-2017 and 1994-1995. They might be able to make it into Sept this year since they have now beat all of the previous snow and SWE records with another 2-4 feet of snow forecast next week and continued cold weather. 

[Anti Marine Layer]

Just now, AlTahoe said:

Aug in 2016-2017 and 1994-1995. They might be able to make it into Sept this year since they have now beat all of the previous snow and SWE records with another 2-4 feet of snow forecast next week and continued cold weather. 

Lake Tahoe may not warm up much this summer.

[AlTahoe]

Coldest March in Tahoe City was 1958 with a 35.7F average high. Tahoe City is currently at 34.05F with below average temps forecast for then next 10 days. Pretty good shot of setting a new record. 

 

Also this is the first winter with 4 straight months with average Highs in the 30's since 1974-1975 and coldest since 1951-1952. Nice to see cold records can still happen. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

A little frost this morning. Looks like another sunny warm afternoon is on its way.

[Phishy Wx]

52 minutes ago, Phil said:

Re: that CA storm. A buoy dropping 24mb in 24hrs doesn’t qualify the storm as a “bomb” cyclone. It’s the drop in the minimum pressure of the cyclone itself that counts.

The technical/conventional definition of a meteorological “bomb” is 1 bergeron within 24hrs. At SoCal latitude I believe that translates to roughly 16mb/24hrs? In which case it *barely* met the threshold.

But the way it was being discussed (re: buoy measurements) cannot determine whether it meets the criteria, because such a drop can occur simply due to a fast moving cyclone that isn’t remotely close to meeting bomb cyclone criteria.

the Fujiwhara and eye like feature before landfall was the bigger story to me

[Phil]

48 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

No... the warmer weather for yesterday and today appeared in the models late last week.      We were originally talking about possible snow in the lowlands for today one week ago. 

But next week could be different... still too far out. 

That’s bulls**t. The warm 850s were present since last Monday.

[TT-SEA]

8 minutes ago, Phil said:

That’s bulls**t. The warm 850s were present since last Monday.

No.   I am outside now but will show you even last Wednesay it showed colder than normal 850mb temps for yesterday and today.   I already checked. 

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF keeps the system early next week right along the PNW coast.     We will see if it settles in on that solution now. 

[TT-SEA]

Didn't have to go inside.   Top image is EPS from last Wednesday for today... bottom image is reality.   Big difference over western WA.

[Phishy Wx]

might notch the 2nd 60 burger of the year IMBY today

[Cascadia_Wx]

Stellar looking 12z Euro run.

[TT-SEA]

@Phil no need to get angry about it and not saying it will always work out that way.   But I am intimately aware of how yesterday and today went from us talking about highs in the 40s with lowland snow to highs around 60 and sunny.   The models did change and sent the system to our south a little farther south.   It's a minor detail in the big picture but it resulted in temps about 15-20 degrees warmer with way more sun for us in western WA.    Point being... when the cold signal is the desert SW its easier for things to trend nicer up here in western WA.   It's been happening for the last month.  

But that can easily change.   

[Cascadia_Wx]

We are in for some real blessings this last 7-10 days of March.

The upcoming stretch sort of reminds me of late March 2008. That went on to be a fun and dynamic later spring, summer, fall. Well really just a great weather year all around.

[GHweatherChris]

Tornado just blew through Montebello, CA and ripped a roof off a building according the the Fire Chief I just spoke with, that is a part of my job sometimes.

[Phil]

17 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Didn't have to go inside.   Top image is EPS from last Wednesday for today... bottom image is reality.   Big difference over western WA.

That’s 00z Wednesday, dude. It was there intermittently on previous EPS runs.

You will see, this upcoming pattern will produce a different result. -dAAM/t in mid latitudes is completed.

[TT-SEA]

Also like 2018.    

[Phishy Wx]

Just now, Cascadia_Wx said:

We are in for some real blessings this last 7-10 days of March.

The upcoming stretch sort of reminds me of late March 2008. That went on to be a fun and dynamic later spring, summer, fall. Well really just a great weather year all around.

I don't know (wasn't here in 2008) but feels like if this spring gets any drier. we're going to torch and get awfully smoky (at least over here) while CA and most of OR enjoy mild(er) summers.  I'll be spending most of Aug/Sept on the east coast at the beach condo (again, like 20 and 21).  Western MT also has below normal snowpack this spring, worse than here actually

[Cascadia_Wx]

2 minutes ago, Phil said:

That’s 00z Wednesday, dude. It was there intermittently on previous EPS runs.

You will see, this upcoming pattern will produce a different result. -dAAM/t in mid latitudes is completed.

Create your own thread for this garbage, please.

[TT-SEA]

8 minutes ago, Phil said:

That’s 00z Wednesday, dude. It was there intermittently on previous EPS runs.

The upcoming pattern will be different.

What?   

You are argumentative today.   I literally said what happened this week is no way predictive of the future. 

But I think there is a decent chance of a couple sunny 60ish type days next week again.    Even the 12Z ECMWF is hinting at it.   You seem to think I am predicting 85 and sunny!

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 minute ago, Phishy Wx said:

I don't know (wasn't here in 2008) but feels like if this spring gets any drier. we're going to torch and get awfully smoky (at least over here) while CA and most of OR enjoy mild(er) summers.  I'll be spending most of Aug/Sept on the east coast at the beach condo (again, like 20 and 21).  Western MT also has below normal snowpack this spring, worse than here actually

There are so many conflicting points in this post I’m not quite sure how to address it.

[Phishy Wx]

2 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

There are so many conflicting points in this post I’m not quite sure how to address it.

the "i don't know" part really sets the table

[Deweydog]

Puffy cloud ALERT!

[Phil]

13 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

@Phil no need to get angry about it and not saying it will always work out that way.   But I am intimately aware of how yesterday and today went from us talking about highs in the 40s with lowland snow to highs around 60 and sunny.   The models did change and sent the system to our south a little farther south.   It's a minor detail in the big picture but it resulted in temps about 15-20 degrees warmer with way more sun for us in western WA.    Point being... when the cold signal is the desert SW its easier for things to trend nicer up here in western WA.   It's been happening for the last month.  

But that can easily change.   

I’m not angry? Well, other than the fact my facebook just got hacked ( @Timmy Supercell can confirm, lol).

I understand what the tendency will be north of a ULL on the lee side of the terrain. I live 75% of my life under downsloping flow.