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PNW March 2023 Weather Discussion (2012 Redux)


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16 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

528 thickness or lower = snow. Though after about March 1st if thickness is between 522-528 it may not stick midday. But sub 528 thickness is almost always going to be snow. 

If it is heavy snow it always sticks. Looks like maybe a good PSCZ at some point, it’s my only hope for snow really.

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11 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

The ECMWF is unquestionably cold enough for snow for most places in the Puget Sound area Saturday morning.  The track of the ULL makes it a tricky forecast for which area might see the most precip at that time.

It will go well to the south if recent trends hold. It is almost impossible for any lowland location north of about Seattle to score sticking snow after March 1st these days.

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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Latest zone forecast. 

7D551EC4-AB54-4DD4-8D0D-E884730DF160.png

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Lovely drive to Wenatchee this morning, a little light snow at the top of Stevens and 29 degrees, down here in Wenatchee it’s warm! 55 and partly cloudy currently. Stopped and took a few pics just west of Leavenworth. 

F9BD86CF-636A-4336-9D3A-C0CF175115D2.jpeg

743FBD27-AA4D-4139-BE6F-13914963C92A.jpeg

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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12Z ECMWF is way south with the ULL next week continuing a trend that started on the 00Z run after the 12Z run yesterday showed it coming right through WA and OR.    It might miss even southern OR now.

For western WA... Sunday is fairly sunny and then mostly sunny on Monday and Tuesday on this run.    Might be back close to 60 away from the water by Tuesday.   A similar evolution happened this week with the storm going into CA and leaving us with a couple sunny, mild days.

 

ecmwf-deterministic-namer-precip_3hr_inch-0037200.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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10 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

suppressed jet just keeps hammering CA 

Yeah... ECMWF is really cold down there again by day 6 while warmer 850mb temps sneak in here from the north.    

ecmwf-deterministic-namer-t850_anom_stream-0134400.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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12Z ECMWF also shows a big trough dropping down late next week... might finally be a wetter pattern for BC and WA.    Before that... the ECMWF is basically dry for western WA for about 5 days next week.  

ecmwf-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-0307200.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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I get the sense that trough late next week is not going to dive as much as recent troughs and instead deliver lots of rain to BC and western WA... maybe making up some of the precip deficits.    I could be wrong and pattern changes are tough to predict but it feels like the next logical evolution. 

 

ecmwf-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-0393600.png

ecmwf-deterministic-namer-precip_48hr_inch-0436800.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I get the sense that trough late next week is not going to dive as much as recent troughs and instead deliver lots of rain to BC and western WA... maybe making up some of the precip deficits.    I could be wrong and pattern changes are tough to predict but it feels like the next logical evolution. 

 

ecmwf-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-0393600.png

ecmwf-deterministic-namer-precip_48hr_inch-0436800.png

We'll see. The 12z GFS would have us threaten 2011-12 for all time single season snowfall record. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Just now, Slushy Inch said:

Plant life really hasn’t woken up much. Still looks kind of dead outside.

I don’t know what all factors have added to this but it’s about the latest I’ve ever seen plum and cherry trees bloom around here. The buds just barely started opening the last couple days. I figured the mild days the last week would have done more to speed things along.

How late last summer went combined with the cold late winter and early spring so far are combing to push things later I think. Lots of plants had green leaves well into October last year which probably helped in throwing off their clocks a little. I think many deciduous plants actually require a certain amount of dormancy every year.

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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Just now, Cascadia_Wx said:

How late last summer went combined with the cold late winter and early spring so far are combing to push things later I think. Lots of plants had green leaves well into October last year which probably helped in throwing off their clocks a little. I think many deciduous plants actually require a certain amount of dormancy every year.

Heck, well into November here, which made for some tree damage given that many were still leafed-out when the first snowfalls hit.

It's called clown range for a reason.

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1 minute ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Some really fine 12z GFS ensembles.

180817A1-870C-4940-97F0-5CC5319395EF.png

Could go either way at this point, but there is a path for the blessings to continue. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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My wife just messaged and said its dumping snow at home now. Looking at radar, looks like the cold front just went through up there. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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I think @Rubus Leucodermistold me these are plum trees.  I always thought they were cherry.   There are also some cherry trees in NB that I saw yesterday that are just starting to bloom... but not as far along as the plum trees.  

20230322_143648.jpg

20230322_143130.jpg

20230322_142844.jpg

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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23 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

I don’t know what all factors have added to this but it’s about the latest I’ve ever seen plum and cherry trees bloom around here. The buds just barely started opening the last couple days. I figured the mild days the last week would have done more to speed things along.

How late last summer went combined with the cold late winter and early spring so far are combing to push things later I think. Lots of plants had green leaves well into October last year which probably helped in throwing off their clocks a little. I think many deciduous plants actually require a certain amount of dormancy every year.

It looks like I'm 7-10 days behind last year based on pictures which is crazy because last year was a pretty late ones as well. Red flowering currant and osoberry are not even in full bloom yet but are at least partially blooming now. I have a picture of bigleaf maple in full bloom from 3/28 last year so I would guess around 4/5 this year especially if we warm up again next week. 

The trees are responding to growing degree days. We barely had any base-40 GDD units until the second week of March. Until your daily average temperature ((max + min) / 2)) starts going over 40 F you won't see much of anything...once you start getting base-50 GDDs as we did in the last week then everything really starts to move. 

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3 minutes ago, the_convergence_zone said:

It looks like I'm 7-10 days behind last year based on pictures which is crazy because last year was a pretty late ones as well. Red flowering currant and osoberry are not even in full bloom yet but are at least partially blooming now. I have a picture of bigleaf maple in full bloom from 3/28 last year so I would guess around 4/5 this year especially if we warm up again next week. 

The trees are responding to growing degree days. We barely had any base-40 GDD units until the second week of March. Until your daily average temperature ((max + min) / 2)) starts going over 40 F you won't see much of anything...once you start getting base-50 GDDs as we did in the last week then everything really starts to move. 

I saw some pics that popped up from exactly one year ago yesterday and had the same observation... everything is about a week behind.    Hopefully we can avoid what happened last year when the new growth just stopped for most of April.   Our big leaf maple never did look right last summer.    Could have been related to the heat in June 2021 or the backwards spring last year or maybe both.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I think @Rubus Leucodermistold me these are plum trees.  I always thought they were cherry.   There are also some cherry trees in NB that I saw yesterday that are just starting to bloom... but not as far along as the plum trees.  

20230322_143648.jpg

20230322_143130.jpg

20230322_142844.jpg

Those look more like cherry to me, based on branch structure,  but it’s hard to tell in a picture.   Plum can bloom pretty early but there are a few cherry varieties that are earlier than others as well. 

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16 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I think @Rubus Leucodermistold me these are plum trees.  I always thought they were cherry.   There are also some cherry trees in NB that I saw yesterday that are just starting to bloom... but not as far along as the plum trees.  

20230322_143648.jpg

20230322_143130.jpg

20230322_142844.jpg

Those actually might be cherries. The flowers look a little on the large size (with larger petals) than ornamental plum flowers.

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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5 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Those actually might be cherries. The flowers look a little on the large size (with larger petals) than ornamental plum flowers.

I assume these trees are something other than cherry or plum?   Although there is one similar tree to the previous pics on the far right.   

20230322_144302.jpg

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Euro shows some scattered pockets of lowland snow over the next couple of days.  You can definitely tell that people’s interests have shifted to something more warm season based.  This place is much busier with any potential lowland snow in December or January. 

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Watching the weather closely for next Friday. My son has a half day and a really fun day at school on the 31st but that would put me on the pass around 5-6pm.... debating if I should be the unfun and bad parent and make him skip school entirely and leave after breakfast. I really hope I don't have to because if he reads the most like last year he gets a prize and an award ceremony.

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Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA:

2023-2024 Snowfall totals: 14.3 inches

HIghest snow total (per event): 5.8 inches total 1/11/24 - 1/12/24.

Most recent accumulation (non trace): 0.20 inches on 2/26/24

Days with  trace or more snowfall: 12/01/23 (0.60), 1/8/24 (1.0), 1/10/24 (3.5), 1/11/23 (3.5 inches with Thundersnow; separate event from prior day), 1/12/24 (2.30). 1/14/24 (T), 1/17/24 (1.20 inches), 1/18/24 (1.5 inches), 1/19/24 (0.20), 2/09/24 (0.30), 2/26/24 (0.20-mainly graupel)

First Freeze: 10/27/2023

Last Sub freezing Day: 1/20/24 (12th) (8 days in a row from 1/12/24-1/20/24)

Coldest low: -12F (!!!!!!!!) (1/12/24)

Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location (on ground)

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1 minute ago, LowerGarfield said:

Watching the weather closely for next Friday. My son has a half day and a really fun day at school on the 31st but that would put me on the pass around 5-6pm.... debating if I should be the unfun and bad parent and make him skip school entirely and leave after breakfast. I really hope I don't have to because if he reads the most like last year he gets a prize and an award ceremony.

Could go either way.    But 5 p.m. is still bright daylight now so probably still OK.

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