PNW March 2023 Weather Discussion (2012 Redux)

[SilverFallsAndrew]

5 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Euro shows some scattered pockets of lowland snow over the next couple of days.  You can definitely tell that people’s interests have shifted to something more warm season based.  This place is much busier with any potential lowland snow in December or January. 

I was thinking about this on the drive into town this morning.  Down this way, the lowland snow chances are probably just as good the next couple of mornings as any point this winter before mid-February, but no one cares. Mass excitement for a sloppy dusting in December, no one cares in late March. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I was thinking about this on the drive into town this morning.  Down this way, the lowland snow chances are probably just as good the next couple of mornings as any point this winter before mid-February, but no one cares. Mass excitement for a sloppy dusting in December, no one cares in late March. 

I care Andrew. I will always care.  

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Can you walk and chew gum?   We can discuss different topics and not just how much snow Andrew gets over the next 3 days.  Although I find that interesting too.  

[GHweatherChris]

4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I was thinking about this on the drive into town this morning.  Down this way, the lowland snow chances are probably just as good the next couple of mornings as any point this winter before mid-February, but no one cares. Mass excitement for a sloppy dusting in December, no one cares in late March. 

I am definitely more excited about some snowflakes potentially falling than how far along blossoms are blossoming.

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

I am definitely more excited about some snowflakes potentially falling than how far along blossoms are blossoming.

Awesome.   That is being discussed too.  

[ShawniganLake]

46F and currently not snowing.  Looking like we can avoid cracking 50 today. 

[Phishy Wx]

what other topics are approved for talking about by the raccoons?

[TT-SEA]

12Z EPS is still not real wet over the next 15 days... but that is because the next week is pretty dry. 

The last 7 days of the run flip the script and the wettest anomalies are focused over western WA.  

[Cascadia_Wx]

2 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

what other topics are approved for talking about by the raccoons?

Heavy use of psychedelics and our experiences with them. Go. 

[Phishy Wx]

2 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Heavy use of psychedelics and our experiences with them. Go. 

I'm trying to figure out how to relate it to weather, as to try to stay on topic this time 

[Phishy Wx]

How about modern day (re)-glaciation of the Southern Sierra?

 

 

[TT-SEA]

The control run also agrees in the 8-15 day period... only mentioned because it lines up well with the ECMWF and EPS which adds a little more weight to the solution.    At least for now.   This could change of course.

[TT-SEA]

On the cold troughing front... its interesting that 925mb temps get quite cold for the next 3 days and there isn't much recovery (at least on the west side of the mountains) during the days.   Its really hard to keep 925mb temps around 0C during daylight hours at this time of year.  

[Phil]

Another day in the low 80s.  

4 days ago wind chills were ~ 10°F. Trying to acclimate to the inevitable but mother nature keeps throwing knuckleballs.

[TT-SEA]

SEA just dropped from 50 to 41 in the last hour.    That is pretty crazy for the middle of the day.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

12 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

On the cold troughing front... its interesting that 925mb temps get quite cold for the next 3 days and there isn't much recovery (at least on the west side of the mountains) during the days.   Its really hard to keep 925mb temps around 0C during daylight hours at this time of year.  

Probably mid-30s highs at my location tomorrow and Saturday. Record min/max tomorrow at Silver Falls is 36 from 2018, Saturday it is 39 from 2006, which will almost certainly fall. 

Latest sub-freezing high at Silver Falls was on March 21, 2012.

Jesse mentioned the late March 2008 trough as an analog and that is a good call. All the record min/maxes from the 26-29th are from 2008. 35, 37, 36,35 respectively. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

SEA just dropped from 50 to 41 in the last hour.    That is pretty crazy for the middle of the day.

SLE down to 41 as well, 33 at Silver Falls. 

 

[TacomaWx]

Down to 42 here which is the low for the day. Was a breezy wet drive home from Redmond. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

March 2008 was very cold up here, as was March 2009. I believe they are tied for 3rd coldest March on record behind 1951 and 2012. 

[TacomaWx]

1 hour ago, ShawniganLake said:

Euro shows some scattered pockets of lowland snow over the next couple of days.  You can definitely tell that people’s interests have shifted to something more warm season based.  This place is much busier with any potential lowland snow in December or January. 

It’s always interesting to me. Statistically a dusting of snow or flakes in the air in late March-early April is fairly rare and hard to pull off here. I’d be really surprised if we saw anything accumulate, but we will probably see some flakes at some point in Tacoma. 

[Cold Snap]

Sky looking kind of ominous.

[Cold Snap]

And now it’s raining so hard I can’t even see across the valley.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Here are our top single day snowfalls of the winter season so far:

1) 2/26: 11.6"

2) 2/22: 6.8"

3) 2/28: 5.5"

4) 11/6: 4.8"

5T) 11/7, 3/10: 4.5" 

[TT-SEA]

Cold front just passed through here... 5 minute hail shower.    Now a strong SW wind should be roaring in soon.  

[Phishy Wx]

graupeling out

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Snow is sticking at the house now. 

[TacomaWx]

Just 0.05” so far today and 2.45” MTD.  Looking like we probably get 1/2”-1” more before the months over so a drier than normal month again. 
 We’re -2.7F MTD currently. With the cold weather coming up definitely going to end up below normal. Probably colder than March 2012 but not as cold as 2009. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Snow pack in the Willamette basin is 124" of normal. Pretty impressive considering water year to date total precip in the basin is only 82% of normal. 

[TT-SEA]

17 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Snow is sticking at the house now. 

I bet your wife is super excited.  

[TacomaWx]

4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Snow pack in the Willamette basin is 124" of normal. Pretty impressive considering water year to date total precip in the basin is only 82% of normal. 

There’s only been a couple warm torchy periods or AR events this year. It’s mostly been snow in the mountains with not a lot of melting. Has been a BLESSING with the overall dryness these past few months. 

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

There’s only been a couple warm torchy periods or AR events this year. It’s mostly been snow in the mountains with not a lot of melting. Has been a BLESSING with the overall dryness these past few months. 

Good point... we had some warm rain in January but not much since.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

18z once again pulverizes us with a cold trough to start April. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

WOW, very cold trough in the mid-range. And very heavy small hail here in N. Salem. 

[Phishy Wx]

West Coast at it again.  Another double barrelled low, this time off BC

 

 

[TT-SEA]

8 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

18z once again pulverizes us with a cold trough to start April. 

12Z GEFS was not even close to what the 18Z run is showing.   It will be interesting to see if the 18Z GEFS is similar to the 12Z GEFS and we just have GFS operational run noise.    That is what I am hoping!  

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Phishy Wx said:

West Coast at it again.  Another double barrelled low, this time off BC

 

 

Fascinating.   I can't ever remember seeing something like that.

[Phishy Wx]

too bad it's cloudy....

 

 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

2 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

I assume these trees are something other than cherry or plum?   Although there is one similar tree to the previous pics on the far right.   

Oh, those are definitely ornamental plums. Reddish foliage, smaller, sparser flowers.

[TT-SEA]

Roaring SW wind here... but the opposite of normal and this time bringing in the cold air instead of pushing it out.  

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Oh, those are definitely ornamental plums. Reddish foliage, smaller, sparser flowers.

Good to know... thanks!